EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Starting with the NAM and SREFS looks like a decent clipper coming next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Has anyone noticed ETA 5 has been consistently way west compared to any other model for Sunday. Strange. It's been like that for a while now. No wonder the SREFS been a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ETA5 has a low forming near west Florida and moving NE and none of the other SREF members do. So the people who want to wishcast this up the coast have to have that happen, or else there's absolutely no chance of anyone west of MA seeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not much on the GFS for the Clipper except for the Mid-west to about OH then poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm having a hard time seeing this clipper come through with enough moisture to drop more snow than yesterday's clipper, but then you never really know with these fickle systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Heck of a trof getting carved out on the west coast. 50/50 can hold in place as that comes east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Heck of a trof getting carved out on the west coast. 50/50 can hold in place as that comes east... well as the curse of 2010 reaches 294 days without measurable snow in boston.....(less then an hour from now) .....like clockwork ....this should be a GL cutter or a HV cutter. then cold and dry for another ten days prior to the likely mild period from mid january into feb. One day it will snow and plows will be put to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Here comes the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 A nice west to east mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Ok...at least we have something to track, even though this is probably dead before it even gets started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm no pro, but except for the midwest ridging this really doesn't look too condusive of a storm to me. The 500mb map actually looks a bit convaluted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScot Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That would be a nice Christmas gift for DC! But for now it is as real as Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 nice...several inches of snow just in time for santa's sleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A couple of comments here: First, regarding the midweek system: I don't think this storm has any chance at all east of the mtns now that the coastal is much weaker and further East. Second, the Christmas storm: This MAY be the type of storm that could bring good snow/ice to a wide area in THIS pattern, because it's an overrunning type system moving W to E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Ok...at least we have something to track, even though this is probably dead before it even gets started That West to east runner looks fantastic, but a hair too far north for those of us in Central VA by 174. The placement of the 0 at 10m and 850 relative to the surface low really surprised me. Based on the surface low, I'd have expected Central VA to go over to rain much quicker than we do. Even verbatim my location (15 miles WNW of the city center) is probably quite close to all snow, especially if the precipitation rates were moderate to heavy and could help cool the column. Definitely worth keeping an eye on as this time frame has indicated an event of interest for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 A couple of comments here: First, regarding the midweek system: I don't think this storm has any chance at all east of the mtns now that the coastal is much weaker and further East. Second, the Christmas storm: This MAY be the type of storm that could bring good snow/ice to a wide area in THIS pattern, because it's an overrunning type system moving W to E. I think this helps cause other wise the clipper would have just got crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hey look another one. Maybe we can finally get into an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think this helps cause other wise the clipper would have just got crushed. 100% Wrong! Most of the moisture the Clipper was going to have to work with came from the old storm retrograding back... since that old storm is NOT There, and 3X weaker, that energy is NOT there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hey look another one. Maybe we can finally get into an active pattern. You would have to figure one of these systems is going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 You would have to figure one of these systems is going to work out. What are we now like 0/7? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 100% Wrong! Most of the moisture the Clipper was going to have to work with came from the old storm retrograding back... since that old storm is NOT There, and 3X weaker, that energy is NOT there. How is the clipper working off moisture from that storm? Its the confluence off that storm that rips apart our clipper once it gets east of the apps.....not one model run have i seen had this tag team effect you have been explaining....i really feel he is 100% right...many others have said the same thing.....If we want the clipper east of the apps, we need that strom weak and way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 How is the clipper working off moisture from that storm? Its the confluence off that storm that rips apart our clipper once it gets east of the apps.....not one model run have i seen had this tag team effect you have been explaining....i really feel he is 100% right...many others have said the same thing.....If we want the clipper east of the apps, we need that strom weak and way ots I thought this too but, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 How is the clipper working off moisture from that storm? Its the confluence off that storm that rips apart our clipper once it gets east of the apps.....not one model run have i seen had this tag team effect you have been explaining....i really feel he is 100% right...many others have said the same thing.....If we want the clipper east of the apps, we need that strom weak and way ots The moisture that the old storm was going to bring into the clipper, because it was supposed to be retrograding. Also, the old storm up North would have provided NE winds to lower the temps on Wed. Without NE winds, we'll get to 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 100% Wrong! Most of the moisture the Clipper was going to have to work with came from the old storm retrograding back... since that old storm is NOT There, and 3X weaker, that energy is NOT there. Strongly disagree, clipper is crushed under the strong NLY confluence via the H5 vortex of this weekend's system. Take a look at how the QPF output goes from about 0.5" in the Plains/Mid-west to essentially nothing upon reaching the east coast. If that vortex was displaced a bit further NE, we'd see a light snow accumulation at the very least. The retrograding low wouldn't give us anything, strong N/NNWLY downsloping winds 500 miles SW of the center of a low isn't going to do much good for us. Maybe if you're in Maine, but sadly we don't live up there. This weekend's non-event will in effect screw us out of another snow chance mid week IF it remains too close to New England. Too much of a vortex is a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Strongly disagree, clipper is crushed under the strong NYL confluence via the H5 vortex of this weekend's system. Take a look at how the QPF output goes from about 0.5" in the Plains/Mid-west to essentially nothing upon reaching the east coast. If that vortex was displaced a bit further NE, we'd see a light snow accumulation at the very least. The retrograding low wouldn't give us anything, strong N/NNWLY downsloping winds 500 miles SW of the center of a low isn't going to do much good for us. Maybe if you're in Maine, but sadly we don't live up there. This weekend's non-event will in effect screw us out of another snow chance mid week IF it remains too close to New England. Too much of a vortex is a bad thing. Yes, NOW it is, because the storm is in the wrong position now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Strongly disagree, clipper is crushed under the strong NLY confluence via the H5 vortex of this weekend's system. Take a look at how the QPF output goes from about 0.5" in the Plains/Mid-west to essentially nothing upon reaching the east coast. If that vortex was displaced a bit further NE, we'd see a light snow accumulation at the very least. The retrograding low wouldn't give us anything, strong N/NNWLY downsloping winds 500 miles SW of the center of a low isn't going to do much good for us. Maybe if you're in Maine, but sadly we don't live up there. This weekend's non-event will in effect screw us out of another snow chance mid week IF it remains too close to New England. Too much of a vortex is a bad thing. Yes, we want the offshore storm to get out of there without retrograding too much because the NW winds associated with the ULL are going to crush the clipper's moisture. The clipper doesn't need more moisture from another system to work with; it dumps .5" of QPF in Chicago, a fairly substantial snowfall. The problem is that the ULL continues to act as a meat grinder and chew up nice shortwaves headed in our direction, allowing New England to have a record long snowless streak. The East gets screwed again while MSP and ORD add to their outstanding seasonal totals, not too unusual for a La Niña year. Even the Mid-Atlantic is doing OK this year, but there's clearly a screw-zone from PHL-BOS/ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The moisture that the old storm was going to bring into the clipper, because it was supposed to be retrograding. Also, the old storm up North would have provided NE winds to lower the temps on Wed. Without NE winds, we'll get to 40 degrees. How would the old storm bring moisture into the clipper? The two lows wouldn't phase, the stronger one (vortex) would suppress/weaken the other. I don't understand your second point either. The clipper track would have been south of the area, and evaporational cooling would sufficiently chill us to 32F with plenty cold 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 How would the old storm bring moisture into the clipper? The two lows wouldn't phase, the stronger one (vortex) would suppress/weaken the other. I don't understand your second point either. The clipper track would have been south of the area, and evaporational cooling would sufficiently chill us to 32F with plenty cold 850mb temps. We would have had an established NE flow that probably would have been around for 3-4 days if you believed the old GFS runs. I never said the old storm would give moisture, it would supply more energy by retrograding back toward the coast. Some of the snow would have been from the old low. Secondly, evaporational cooling would not have been sufficient with only light precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Im sorry but I like this system at 168 on the GFS, its west to east system, the GFS does better with these there arent many other S/W's to deal with, i like the potenial here for a decent snofall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Im sorry but I like this system at 168 on the GFS, its west to east system, the GFS does better with these there arent many other S/W's to deal with, i like the potenial here for a decent snofall Like I said, it seems to be one that could deliver in this kind of a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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