eyewall Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Great long term discussion by Banacos... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES. COASTAL STORM IS TAKING SHAPE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE GULF COAST AND SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY WED MORNING. ECMWF BRINGS THIS LOW ACROSS OUR SWEET SPOT...RIGHT OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD ON WED AFTERNOON. GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING THE LOW CENTER FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF BRINGS UP POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS VERMONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS AND A STRONG VORT/CLOSED LOW INVOLVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT EXACTLY IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR TRACK OF LOW. PHASING EVENTS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP GULF MOISTURE...STRONG BAROCLINICITY AT 850 AND A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THESE INGREDIENTS MEAN THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER TO VERMONT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AND CENTRAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MORE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. Lock it in. I will be traveling to Long Island that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Lock it in. I will be traveling to Long Island that day. Thanks. We all appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Sounds good for my adventure to randolph vt (1420') , aside from the wed am drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. It was interesting to leave the house this morning to sleet, only to check the web cam later and find that it was snowing. Eventually, 0.6” of snow fell on top of the 0.1” of sleet. After the full liquid analysis, the snowboards caught 0.06” of liquid, and the rain gauge caught a total of 0.07”, with a bit of rain in there. Even with the warming today, parts of the ground have held onto the white coating from earlier. The point forecast for tonight calls for up to an inch here once temperatures cool. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Temperature: 35.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Can anyone give me a good guess as to what time these squalls will be coming through? My daughter is returning from the NEK tomorrow and it has me a little uneasy....thanks LOCAL SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FORSNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. AREA MOST IMPACTED WILL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CENTRALAND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWCOULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING VISIBILITIESAND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Can anyone give me a good guess as to what time these squalls will be coming through? My daughter is returning from the NEK tomorrow and it has me a little uneasy....thanks LOCAL SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREA MOST IMPACTED WILL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. I haven't looked at their SSP much, but it looks like it lights up on their WRF beginning about 21z (4pm) tomorrow and it continues overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I haven't looked at their SSP much, but it looks like it lights up on their WRF beginning about 21z (4pm) tomorrow and it continues overnight. Yeah I was going to say like 6-10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E. It was interesting to leave the house this morning to sleet, only to check the web cam later and find that it was snowing. Eventually, 0.6” of snow fell on top of the 0.1” of sleet. After the full liquid analysis, the snowboards caught 0.06” of liquid, and the rain gauge caught a total of 0.07”, with a bit of rain in there. Even with the warming today, parts of the ground have held onto the white coating from earlier. The point forecast for tonight calls for up to an inch here once temperatures cool. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Temperature: 35.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace J.Spin, so can you see tenths of an inch on your webcam? I remember you posting a photo of the measuring blocks last winter, but have you added tenths of an inch to that? If so, that's awesome! I finished up with just shy of an inch of snow and when I melted down what fell in the larger cylinder, it came out to 0.12" of liquid. Still hanging on to a white coating this evening as it never really warmed up today...just 32-34F type stuff most of the afternoon/evening. CAD doing its thing as it's 34F at MVL and MPV, with 32F further east at 1V4. Meanwhile it's 42F in BTV and 39F up at SLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I haven't looked at their SSP much, but it looks like it lights up on their WRF beginning about 21z (4pm) tomorrow and it continues overnight. The magnitude of CAA flips those low levels to pretty unstable. NAM Bufkit soundings show quite a burst of low level omega as it barrels through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Trace of new snow this morning both at home and mountain. Snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Trace of new snow this morning both at home and mountain. Snowing lightly. I'd like to see a stat that shows how many days % , actually have snowflakes in air in mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'd like to see a stat that shows how many days % , actually have snowflakes in air in mtn I've seen like 70-80% of days in Dec/Jan especially when it's just cold and flakes seem to fall all the time (accums is another story)...j.spin could probably give a better low elevation report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.16” L.E. I know that the precipitation was starting to change over to frozen by 11:57 P.M. last night… because we were woken up by an incredible racket of sleet pounding the house. It clearly wasn’t a full changeover to frozen by that point, since I saw some rain later. And we indeed picked up another shot of liquid last night – I cleared the rain gauge at 6:00 P.M. yesterday, and there was another 0.09” of liquid this morning once everything was melted down. In terms of snow, there was a couple of tenths on the boards this morning in the form of graupel balls and some flakes, and it comprised 0.01” of the overnight liquid. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 J.Spin, so can you see tenths of an inch on your webcam? I remember you posting a photo of the measuring blocks last winter, but have you added tenths of an inch to that? If so, that's awesome! Great question! Indeed I can’t actually measure to tenths of an inch by eye, so here’s how the process works: The increments on those diagonal blocks are calibrated to exactly two inches each, so knowing that, I can interpolate any measurements I need. I just grab a screen shot of the web cam, open the image in Photoshop, measure the number of pixels representing two inches, measure the number of pixels of snow depth, and convert to inches of snowfall: Based on the above, I went with 0.6” for yesterday’s snowfall. The resolution of the image doesn’t look all that impressive in the jpeg above, but since it’s an HD web cam you can get some decent accuracy and precision at the pixel level when you zoom in with Photoshop and measure it. The process really isn’t as elaborate as the figure makes it look, since I have Excel all set up to do the calculations and rounding. I don’t even take measurements off both blocks all the time (having two is nice for backup/reference/averaging), but I happened to check both this time. I also stagger the distance of the blocks a bit as another layer of reference (hence the closer block with have more pixels per two-inch distance). In general though, I just grab whichever image from the storm period shows the snow at its zenith, open it in Photoshop to get the pixels, enter those into Excel, and there’s the snowfall in tenths of an inch. Aside from setting it up to see what’s going on during a storm, the web cam is really only needed during the fringes of the season (storms where the snowfall may melt/settle significantly before measurement) or with extended travel, so I don’t have the measurement boards set up permanently. And since I don’t have it positioned in exactly the same spot every time, it means I have to measure the reference 2” value every time. I like it best if I can get a reference image of the blocks before any snow falls, but if not, I just measure one of the 2” increments above the snow that is still fully visible. It’s an indoor web cam that I’m using, so one downside is that I’m limited and can’t measure off of multiple boards, and the setup is closer to the house than I’d like, but for our sheltered location it seems to give representative snowfall values. It certainly gives me a virtual presence as a weather observer though, and so far I’ve been satisfied with the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That is sweet I need to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 A little reminder to everyone here to watch out for black ice if you're out and about tomorrow morning.I should've taken my own advice. I lost control briefly twice on my way in this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I should've taken my own advice. I lost control briefly twice on my way in this AM.I hate black ice. No worries about that here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Here is to hoping for a little something out of the snow showers later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Just had a bit of graupel here as of 10:10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Forecasting for VTrans today...could be some nice squalls this evening...looks like central Greens may get it good. Also, man the Euro looks nice from LEB northward Wednesday and the ensembles agree....leaning toward some impacts for the north country rather than a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We are partly cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Just had a bit of graupel here as of 10:10am. We are partly cloudy now. We had a final tenth of an inch of snow this morning, and now that we’re partly cloudy I’d say that marks the end of the frontal system that went through. Based on the BTV NWS discussion, we’re in the interlude before the clipper comes in this afternoon: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 636 AM EST SATURDAY…CLDS/PRECIP/WX...LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE CLEARING THRU THE DAY DESPITE SFC RIDGE OVER REGION AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MVS IN QUICKLY THIS AFTNOON. WX FOR THIS MORNING WILL CONSIST OF LEFTOVER -SW FROM EXITING FRONT OVERNGT. THESE WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AIDED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BROUGHT ABOUT BY SFC RIDGE. It looks like something in the 1-3” range is the estimate for here based on the point forecast and the associated hourly weather forecast graph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yeah looks like it is clouding up now and the radar shows some returns on a trajectory for this area. BTV graphical had us at about 1" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro/Extrapolated NAM = Rain to Sleet to backend snow. GFS = Nothing. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Was out in a nice squal before. Fun drive. 3d with huge dendrites. Coming down much lighter now. All good in winter land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro/Extrapolated NAM = Rain to Sleet to backend snow. GFS = Nothing. Nice. lol... I thought the ECM had several inches of front end snow too, but that's just trying to figure it out through the Wunderground images. Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one. Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one. Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain. Well, as usual the BTV NWS discussion seems to have a good handle on where things stand. It sounds like a North Country-focused version of the main weather discussion thread without quite as much emotion involved (although the spicy drama there has certainly kept it entertaining). .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 223 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN THRU THIS PERIOD IS NEARLY PERSISTENT NRN STREAM TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH A TEMPORARY RETRACTION THAT COULD MEAN OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR THE 2013-14 SEASON BUT UNFORTUNATELY DURING ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. BIG TRAVEL TIME FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND YET LARGE INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN BETWEEN ECMWF/UKMET/GEM AND GFS AND EVEN WITHIN THE GFS THE OPERATIONAL RUN APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12Z RUNS OF ALL CONTINUE THEIR PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH ECMWF/GEM ANDNOW NAM HAVE INSIDE RUNNERS/COASTAL HUGGER DUE TO PHASING BETWEEN NRN/SRN STREAMS WITH MIXED/RAIN EVENT DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF/WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS OPERATIONAL IS EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE AND NO PHASING OF STREAMS AND NO PCPN. I/LL FOLLOW SUIT WITH PRVS FCSTRS AND TAKE THE AVERAGE SOLUTION WHICH PLACES A STORM TRACK NEAR CAPE COD WITH QPF <0.5-1 INCH ACROSS FA. TRACK WOULD FAVOR COLDER...SNOW SOLUTION AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OR ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT FEEL THIS IS PRUDENT WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME. POPS ARE MARGINALLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT BLENDS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THUS WILL LET IT RIDE. THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD TREND COLDER AND DRIER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 lol... I thought the ECM had several inches of front end snow too, but that's just trying to figure it out through the Wunderground images. Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one. Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain. Yeah I was just speaking broadly. There is a short front end hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So far it seems like the Adirondacks are eating everything that tries to make it here but it should get in eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The BTV discussion is full of win today... love the little extra tid-bits and descriptions. "Brutish" lol. And they are right... winds are going to be a big issue with ski resorts across the region tomorrow. CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY ACTUALLY QUITEBRUTISH WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 8 TO 18 ABOVE ALONG WITH WINDSGUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 319 PM EST SATURDAY...THEN JUST A ROUGH DAY ON SUNDAY ASSTRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREAAND TEMPERATURES HOLD MORE OR LESS STEADY FROM THE MID TEENS TOTHE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE MID-FEBRUARY AND WITH THE WINDS IT WILL FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER.INDEED...MEAN MIXED PBL DEPTH INCREASES TO 800 MB THROUGH THE DAYWITH SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45MPH RANGE UNDER STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN SUCH A STARKCHANGE IN AIRMASS AND BORDERLINE GUST CRITERIA...HAVE OPTED TOHOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACK ANDGREEN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDEDTHE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS IN THE ADVISORY...BUT THIS ISMORE OF A CONCERN FOR GAP FLOW EFFECTS THROUGH THE PASSES ANDRIVER VALLEYS AS OPPOSED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES PROPER. I-89THROUGH BOLTON INTO WATERBURY IS ONE SUCH AREA. WITH SEVERAL SKIRESORTS OPENING THIS WEEKEND...THESE WINDS MAY ALSO PROVEPROBLEMATIC FOR LIFT OPERATIONS DURING THE DAY DESPITE THEWELCOMED NEW POWDER. IN REGARD TO SNOW...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINSAS THE STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACT TOSQUEEZE OUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. ONLYLOOKING AT LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS2 INCHES BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SNOW LOVERS HAPPY DESPITE THERATHER HARSH TEMP/WIND CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. FROUDE NUMBERPROFILES NOT SURPRISINGLY QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING...SOBEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHERPEAKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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