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NNE Autumn 2013 Thread


MaineJayhawk

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It is looking like there are plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Even here in Winooski a few flakes are still spitting out now and then. It seems it is always tough to call the end of these little events.

 

It snowed all day up at the office today, but nothing more than a dusting during the day.  Just mood snow, and the visibility was 2sm or higher most of the time.  About 1" new snow at 1,500ft since yesterday.  

 

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It is looking like there are plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Even here in Winooski a few flakes are still spitting out now and then. It seems it is always tough to call the end of these little events.

 

Yeah, the snowfall just keeps rolling along today, and it’s not just these smaller events, big storms can linger even more if they decide to sit in the Maritimes after passing through the area.  When people insist that the only appropriate way to measure snow from a storm is to wait until the snow has stopped falling, that’s a different sort of perspective.  I’ve got storms in my records lasting a week, such as the one that started on December 2nd, 2010, and the one that started on Dec 31st, 2009, which is the storm that brought Burlington its record snowfall a few years back.  Although the Greens aren’t an especially high mountain range, they are clearly set up for some impressive orographics.

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Yeah, the snowfall just keeps rolling along today, and it’s not just these smaller events, big storms can linger even more if they decide to sit in the Maritimes after passing through the area.  When people insist that the only appropriate way to measure snow from a storm is to wait until the snow has stopped falling, that’s a different sort of perspective.  I’ve got storms in my records lasting a week, such as the one that started on December 2nd, 2010, and the one that started on Dec 31st, 2009, which is the storm that brought Burlington its record snowfall a few years back.  Although the Greens aren’t an especially high mountain range, they are clearly set up for some impressive orographics.

 

The persistent flurry has been like the energizer bunny today.... just snow globe flurries almost all day long.  I haven't seen much if any accumulation though today looking at web cams from both the east/west slopes like Stowe/Jeffersonville/Underhill/Nashville, however, I just got out of the gym at Topnotch and its snowing pretty good with a fresh dusting on the car and the pavement is turning white.  Heaviest snow shower I've seen all day.

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Saw Moosehead Lake in ME featured on Chronicle. Man, I love NNE.

 

Yeah I think the town of Stowe was on that show recently, too.  I wish we got the Boston news stations up here.

 

Persistent flurry continues with airy dendrites.  There's so little moisture in the air, I have no idea how it continues to snow.  Its been like 12 hours of flurries with only a trace of liquid.

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Slightly heavier snow shower activity this evening is making for a wintery evening on the Mountain Road.  

 

Just left the resort and roads are snowpacked, and it is snowing surprisingly hard given the radar.  Looked like 1/2"-1" since the sun went down at 1,500ft.

 

 

Down lower under 1,000ft heading into the village, also renewed snow shower activity has led to a fresh dusting.

 

 

Wind blown snow drifting all over though so getting any sort of accurate measurement would be impossible, but its less than a half inch, haha.

 

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Slightly heavier snow shower activity this evening is making for a wintery evening on the Mountain Road.  

 

Just left the resort and roads are snowpacked, and it is snowing surprisingly hard given the radar.  Looked like 1/2"-1" since the sun went down at 1,500ft.

 

attachicon.gifunnamed (1).jpg

 

Down lower under 1,000ft heading into the village, also renewed snow shower activity has led to a fresh dusting.

 

attachicon.gifunnamed (3).jpg

 

Wind blown snow drifting all over though so getting any sort of accurate measurement would be impossible, but its less than a half inch, haha.

 

attachicon.gifunnamed (2).jpg

 

Awesome :)

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I'm curious about J.Spin's area...he's been under some more persistent echos recently, and he seems sheltered from the wind so maybe he can better sample these fluffy flakes off his snowboard.

 

Based on what I’m seeing in your images, the snowfall has been much more robust out near you – we’ve just got a faint dusting at this point.  I’ve got a ground-based snowboard out that provides and extra level of protection from the wind, but I’ve just barely seen 0.1” here.  The snowfall was definitely more intense here earlier today when the wind seemed more NW and was shooting right down the Winooski Valley, but now it looks more NNW on the radar.  With that said, some of those stronger echoes are moving into this area and the snowfall has picked up at times.

 

19NOV13C.gif

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Based on what I’m seeing in your images, the snowfall has been much more robust out near you – we’ve just got a faint dusting at this point. I’ve got a ground-based snowboard out that provides and extra level of protection from the wind, but I’ve just barely seen 0.1” here. The snowfall was definitely more intense here earlier today when the wind seemed more NW and was shooting right down the Winooski Valley, but now it looks more NNW on the radar. With that said, some of those stronger echoes are moving into this area and the snowfall has picked up at times.

19NOV13C.gif

Interesting...I would've bet money you had like a half inch or more from the radar, as you seem to get spill over from the Bolton part of the Spine with that wind.

And for the record I still can't really measure this as it's just a wind-blown dusting...this stuff has no moisture at all so it's at the mercy of the wind on any surface that's not grass, and grass this time of year certainly inflates it.

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And we got nothing on Stagecoach Road

lol, I just drove 2 miles down RT 108 to Maplefields and it looks like absolutely nothing has happened all evening down at RT 100 junction, too.

But maybe it was just some heavier snow showers over here, but I mean I've got maybe 1/4" so in the grand scheme of things that's nothing noteworthy...not like its inches, lol (and I think you're an inch up on me from that event two weekends ago). Just a fresh whitening of snow that'll probably evaporate by morning in the dry/windy conditions haha.

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.71” L.E.

 

The clouds have finally cleared out to mark the end of this latest event.  At the house we picked up a couple of rounds of 0.2” of snow yesterday, one during the day, and one during the evening.  Both likely would have come in with a trace of moisture had I run cores on them, but since much of the snow sublimated or eventually got caught by the wind, it will have to go down as trace anyway.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 24.0 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

The next potential snow events in the pipe appear to be the cold frontal passage as we head into the weekend, and then an Alberta Clipper on Tuesday, so the steady diet of November-style snows appears to continue.  Temperatures look fairly marginal in the lower valleys for the beginning of the first event, but they gradually cool, so with moisture around and a broad WNW/NNW flow as mentioned in the BTV discussion below, it’s not surprising to see snow opportunities in the point and click:

 

20NOV13A.jpg

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 325 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BFR LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA/MARITIMES. UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEHIND EXITING FRONT...WILL THEN SWING THRU THE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH BROAD WNW/NNW FLOW. THIS IN TURN WILL DRAG DOWN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP BEING OVER HIR TRRN/NW FACING SLOPES. WILL CONTINUE HIR CONCENTRATION OF POPS THERE AS MDLS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR SITUATION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUN NGT/MONDAY...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM MVG OVER GREAT LKS REGION AND THRU AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF CURRENT SYNOPSIS WILL BRING BLW NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY FIR THE HIGHS WHICH RANGE 30S TO NEAR 40F CLOSE TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN TEENS TO THE 20S MAINLY WITH SOME L30S IN CVLY. COLDEST IN DACKS/NE VT WHERE SINGLE NUMBERS POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN WK RIDGE CRESTS OVER AREA. PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE MIX OF RW/SW WITH FRONT FRI NGT/SAT...THEN SHIFT TO ALL -SW AS NW FLOW COMMENCES. UPSLOPE -SW PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WITH LGT ACCUM POSSIBLE OVER HIR ELEV. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY DOES SWING NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL THUS KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSEST TO THE PASSING LOW.

 

The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS also show versions of a coastal-style storm around the Wednesday timeframe next week, which could be the next event in line, but that’s still a week out.

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This morning’s synopsis from the BTV NWS succinctly lays out the potential for the next several days; it sounds like there should be plenty of activity with three systems and November or colder temperatures:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

626 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013

 

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING LOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY. EACH LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

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it sucks when I drive to portland and it's a few degrees colder. At what elevation do you start to see the opposite or what you'd expect, which is a temp drop for every 1000'? Seems like we're in the sandwich zone where we don't benefit by the elevation gain, except for early evening.

 

Next time you leave 2" slop in PWM and find 6" at home, you'll feel better.  ;)

Also, check the respective temps on days with windy CAA.

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it sucks when I drive to portland and it's a few degrees colder. At what elevation do you start to see the opposite or what you'd expect, which is a temp drop for every 1000'? Seems like we're in the sandwich zone where we don't benefit by the elevation gain, except for early evening.

 

As Tamarack says, it's a world of difference depending on how well mixed the atmosphere is.

 

That temp drop per feet of elevation is only relevant when the atmosphere is roughly dry adiabatic (well mixed). While that can occur overnight (think CAA), more than likely you'll see strong temp inversions where your readings will rise with height. Generally speaking this occurs in the lowest several hundred feet, but will have an effect on your temp profile above that inversion as well.

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The next couple days might be a little interesting in these parts... this is precip through Sunday afternoon on the BTV4. 

 

Likely overdone as this WRF can be, with still should be able to put some snow down at least on the mountains.  Looks like as the secondary front passes on Saturday, it could go to town for a little bit.

 

 

 

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The next couple days might be a little interesting in these parts... this is precip through Sunday afternoon on the BTV4. 

 

Likely overdone as this WRF can be, with still should be able to put some snow down at least on the mountains.  Looks like as the secondary front passes on Saturday, it could go to town for a little bit.

 

attachicon.gifNov_21_Model_Run.jpg

 

Little drier on this mornings runs.  If you look at the "froude" page BTV just sent live a few weeks ago it is pretty clear that each night fri-sat, sat-sun and then likely sun-mon will feature some upslope precip along the spine.  Overall by the end of the weekend, if 12 inches fell cumulatively I wouldn't be shocked (of course that could also be like .2inches of water given the temps). 

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Event totals: 0.1” (Sleet)/Trace L.E.

 

Weather-wise, there didn’t appear to be anything going on at the house when I first looked out back this morning around 5:30 A.M., but by 6:00 A.M. observations time there was a sleet storm in progress.  I had time to check the board and found a crusty tenth of an inch on there, but I didn’t have time to try to get a core on that stuff so I’m going with trace on the liquid equivalent for now.  There was also a bit of freezing rain and/or rain mixed in with the sleet, so that was helping the sleet stick together on the board with a bit of glaze.  Temperatures are supposed to warm up enough that everything should become liquid, and I’ll get the numbers from the rain gauge later today.  After warming today though, it looks like the precipitation is back to frozen in the form of snow.  The point and click actually calls for several inches by Sunday, and the graphical forecast has a good number of panels with flakes:

 

22NOV13A.jpg

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet)

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Sleet mixed with freezing rain/rain

Snow at the stake: Trace

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