adk Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That one is good, too. A little quicker than I'd like with the upslope, but would still be a net gain in the mountains with snow to rain back to snow. The track of the surface and mid level lows would argue for more of a westerly wind flow through the column as it gets due north of FVE...that would probably end up working well for the eastern side. From Muccilli's study, the presence of a more northerly wind somewhere in the lower levels seems to be the killer for east of the spine axis, but the track on the GFS would probably avoid that (sorry eyewall). I'm most interested pow wise in the Sun-Mon time frame. The profiles I see show a rather consisitent wind in the 290 degree range, with -8c down to base with saturated airmass and omega values in the -8 to -12 range. With peak upslope coming 0z monday. its not perfect movement but it certainly has my interest perked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm most interested pow wise in the Sun-Mon time frame. The profiles I see show a rather consisitent wind in the 290 degree range, with -8c down to base with saturated airmass and omega values in the -8 to -12 range. With peak upslope coming 0z monday. its not perfect movement but it certainly has my interest perked A snowy opening weekend into Thanksgiving week would be pretty sweet. Ideal scenario would be to throw down some junk with wet snow or mixed bag over the weekend (as even like 3" of snow/sleet/ice can be enough base) and then throw some upslope fluff over-top. It would be nice to get another smooth layer down before topping it off with fluff Beggars can't be choosers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm most interested pow wise in the Sun-Mon time frame. The profiles I see show a rather consisitent wind in the 290 degree range, with -8c down to base with saturated airmass and omega values in the -8 to -12 range. With peak upslope coming 0z monday. its not perfect movement but it certainly has my interest perked Monday? Thanksgiving week, that is not good....for me. can we get this cranking for sunday, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 A snowy opening weekend into Thanksgiving week would be pretty sweet. Ideal scenario would be to throw down some junk with wet snow or mixed bag over the weekend (as even like 3" of snow/sleet/ice can be enough base) and then throw some upslope fluff over-top. It would be nice to get another smooth layer down before topping it off with fluff Beggars can't be choosers though. That is sorta exactly what I'm thinking. Something sloppy and wet saturday followed by colder and colder temps and snow through till tuesday. (Stop me if you have heard that before). -A.J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm most interested pow wise in the Sun-Mon time frame. The profiles I see show a rather consisitent wind in the 290 degree range, with -8c down to base with saturated airmass and omega values in the -8 to -12 range. With peak upslope coming 0z monday. its not perfect movement but it certainly has my interest perked How's it look for the Mt Washington Valley into the western mountains of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 After a beautiful near calm afternoon getting buffeted by big gusts right now. Davis just had a 36mph gust and the trees are roaring. No station in NNE having any real wind but I guess the cold air advection is rushing in at higher elecations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 After a beautiful near calm afternoon getting buffeted by big gusts right now. Davis just had a 36mph gust and the trees are roaring. No station in NNE having any real wind but I guess the cold air advection is rushing in at higher elecations! Its been noticably more windy here in the past couple hours, too. I can hear that dull roar too, which means it's probably moving pretty good just off the deck in the hills. Summit has been gusting 50mph most of the day though. Maybe we are mixing it down a little better at times now or something. Definitely doesn't look like the ASOS stations have seen any increase in wind, if anything they've gone down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Its been noticably more windy here in the past couple hours, too. I can hear that dull roar too, which means it's probably moving pretty good just off the deck in the hills. Summit has been gusting 50mph most of the day though. Maybe we are mixing it down a little better at times now or something. Definitely doesn't look like the ASOS stations have seen any increase in wind, if anything they've gone down. Just weird. Powderfreak after 30 minutes of near roaring wind the wind has gone back to 2 or 3mph and the trees are slient. The temperature is still a balmy 44F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Just weird. Powderfreak after 30 minutes of near roaring wind the wind has gone back to 2 or 3mph and the trees are slient. The temperature is still a balmy 44F! same here! Back to still quiet and balmy. To be honest, I thought the cold would come in quicker today with a more serious temp drop this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 same here! Back to still quiet and balmy. To be honest, I thought the cold would come in quicker today with a more serious temp drop this afternoon. This will help you track all levels .http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 To be honest, I thought the cold would come in quicker today with a more serious temp drop this afternoon. Well, Mansfield is down into the 20s F now with NW winds, so cold seems to be on the way. We’ve had some precipitation down here at the house, but we’re still in the 40s F, so it’s only been rain so far. No doubt the precipitation coming through is flakes in the higher elevations though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Yeah still 45F In the valley. We are definitely not getting the drop we need just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Wondering if anybody has a link to some of the more obscure observations/models coming out of BTV. In particular, the air column soundings (or something like that) that is sometimes referred to. I have lost my links for much of these. Anyway, chilled rain and 42 on the hill in Burlington. Have to imagine the upper elevations are getting something tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pouring graupel right now in Stowe. Even accumulating briefly due to the intensity. Still almost 40F out though. Very windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 What is the temp graphic at mansfield? 32f line what 2500' or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Temp is starting to come down now. Now at 41 after that last shower. There may have been pellets mixed in but I may earning myself a bun there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 What is the temp graphic at mansfield? 32f line what 2500' or so It's probably changing with this line of precip moving through, but freezing is still high up. Probably 3000ft at least. Bolton at 2100ft is 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Bolton at 37...ughhh i gotta look at 850/925's on spc map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 SLK 33/25 925's still +2 ish ova n vt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Pouring graupel right now in Stowe. Even accumulating briefly due to the intensity. Still almost 40F out though. Very windy. Thanks for the heads up PF – I heard quite a racket outside and assumed it was just heavy rain, but I went to look after your comment. It was pounding graupel with 0.2” down comprised of 0.02” of liquid. It’s melting back pretty quickly with the temperature still around 40 F, but it puts down at least a little accumulation from this event. You can see on the radar when those 35 db echoes rolled right into our place on the county line – that’s when the graupel was really pouring down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Thanks for the heads up PF – I heard quite a racket outside and assumed it was just heavy rain, but I went to look after your comment. It was pounding graupel with 0.2” down comprised of 0.02” of liquid. It’s melting back pretty quickly with the temperature still around 40 F, but it puts down at least a little accumulation from this event. You can see on the radar when those 35 db echoes rolled right into our place on the county line – that’s when the graupel was really pouring down: No problem, haha. Its funny you mentioned hearing a racket outside... that's what first brought me to the door. I heard something pounding against the sliding glass door to the deck, and sure enough it was wind driven graupel. If you didn't look outside right then you probably would've missed the 0.2" of accumulation. I had a brief whitening and then slushy surface on the snow board, but didn't bother trying to measure it. Might have pulled a tenth or so just based on the size of the graupel (they were probably a tenth or two in diameter themselves). I applaud your tenacity with the accumulations though; its great to know you are there sampling all the frozen precip that falls in that area of the Spine...and having those records is awesome. I spend a surprising amount of time on your website looking at past events whenever I am curious about a given outcome from a past storm. Temperatures took a drop though and its down to 37F here in Stowe now, so I'm assuming the freezing level just plummeted one or two thousand feet in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 If I didn't have to wake up for work I would have missed it, but we had a quick dusting in Winooski mostly of the roof and car top variety. It took is already disappearing. We shall see if anything else passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.71” L.E. The graupel from last night’s event had melted back since temperatures were still around 40 F, but the temperature had sunken to the freezing mark by this morning, and additional snow was falling at observations time with a new 0.1” down and areas of the yard whitened. The funnel in the rain gauge was clogged with snow, but there was 0.05” of liquid inside. The intensity of the snowfall picked up somewhat as I was heading east toward the center of Waterbury, but it was still fairly hit or miss and generally light. The northwest flow bringing the snow is quite visible on radar: Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 32.0 F Sky: Light Snow Snow at the stake: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 0.1" of frozen sky spit this morning at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Flurries and windy in Winooski. Still leftovers from our 0.1" overnight, where it drifted to as high as 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Flurries and windy in Winooski. Still leftovers from our 0.1" overnight, where it drifted to as high as 0.3" It’s nice to hear that the Champlain Valley has been getting in on the act. I hadn’t seen anything here in Burlington this morning, but now we’ve had some flakes flying – there’s really a nice stream visible on the radar funneling right into the Winooski Valley, and I’ve got the web cam running and can see the snow falling with another 0.2” down. It looks like there’s another pulse hitting the Burlington area that should run into the mountains in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I've got 0.25" this morning...visibly white coating out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Blustery with on and off snow showers. Ground and deck was whitened up at home. Not as much here at the Subaru dealer near MPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 We had about half an inch new by this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It is looking like there are plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Even here in Winooski a few flakes are still spitting out now and then. It seems it is always tough to call the end of these little events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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