NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

[J.Spin]

I only reported 1-3" today at the mountain, but several folks have said at least another 4-6" of fluffy fell last night on the upper mountain.

 

 

Yeah, I was hearing about it from students today, telling me that there was another half foot up there and that the skiing was great.  With the clearing today you could really see a distinct snow line in the Greens around 2,000’ or so.  The actual snow line is definitely lower than that, since it’s white in many of the valleys, but the visible line could be something to do with that most recent round of snow and/or changes in vegetation.  I grabbed a shot of it on Mansfield today – when the sky cleared out to sunshine that snow was incredibly brilliant:

 

 

The stake definitely showed a gain in the snowpack depth, coming in at 21” with this evening’s report:

 

 

That’s more than a foot above average, and surprisingly close to reaching that 24” mark for so early in the season.  It shouldn’t quite get there base on the forecast, but you can see from the plot below that such a date would be in pretty rarified company – it would be 1.51 S.D. ahead of the mean date for attaining a 24” depth (12/12):

 

[powderfreak]

Yeah, I was hearing about it from students today, telling me that there was another half foot up there and that the skiing was great.  With the clearing today you could really see a distinct snow line in the Greens around 2,000’ or so.  The actual snow line is definitely lower than that, since it’s white in many of the valleys, but the visible line could be something to do with that most recent round of snow and/or changes in vegetation.  I grabbed a shot of it on Mansfield today – when the sky cleared out to sunshine that snow was incredibly brilliant:

 

 

The stake definitely showed a gain in the snowpack depth, coming in at 21” with this evening’s report:

 

 

 

That's a print & frame worthy photo J.Spin.  Awesome.

 

And yeah, it has been one heck of a week around these parts.  Everyone's getting out and skinning or hiking for turns, and calling it mid-January...I've seen so many amazing photos and videos from the past few days on the hill, too.  At Stowe, the mountain is doing a season's pass appreciation day on Saturday, and patrol is going to look at the possibility of opening even some natural snow terrain...which isn't often something that happens as early as mid-November.  Tomorrow and especially Friday, look to be warming up above freezing, and possibly significantly so over the weekend into early next week.  The snow is going to take a hit, and while there's a good deal of moisture in this snow, the top several inches are bone-dry upslope fluff that may compress quickly over the next couple days.

[OceanStWx]

Pretty impressive early season cold out there. For 11/13:

 

CON 34, record 33 1962

PWM 36, record 33 1990 (1962 was 2nd at 34)

[tamarack]

Monthly departures not including today:

MVL...-0.3

BTV...-0.7

MPV...-2.4

1V4...-1.7

Again I cannot figure out why MPV is always the coldest relative to normal, and almost always 2F colder than MVL's departures. It's like MPV's averages are from downtown Montpelier and then the obs are taken at 1200ft at the airport.

I just always think of departures as an equalizer, but something seems off.

 

For the GYX/CAR locations:

CAR...-0.6

BGR...-1.1

PWM..-1.5

CON...-1.7

More often than not, these 4 locations will come in at a fairly smooth gradient like this, though it can run in either dirrection.  However, if there's one station outside the gradient, it will almost always be BGR, and always cooler than would be expected.  Makes me wonder if its location has changed (geographically or in character) late in the 1981-2010 "normals" period.

 

Yesterday's 28/16 marked our first subfreezing high, and is the earliest I've recorded a max below 29 (though the 29 max on 11/2/2002 is far more impressive.)  It was 19 when I reset the instrument at 9 last night, and up to 27-28 at 7 this morning, as clouds and milder H85s moved in.

[OceanStWx]

For the GYX/CAR locations:

CAR...-0.6

BGR...-1.1

PWM..-1.5

CON...-1.7

More often than not, these 4 locations will come in at a fairly smooth gradient like this, though it can run in either dirrection.  However, if there's one station outside the gradient, it will almost always be BGR, and always cooler than would be expected.  Makes me wonder if its location has changed (geographically or in character) late in the 1981-2010 "normals" period.

 

Yesterday's 28/16 marked our first subfreezing high, and is the earliest I've recorded a max below 29 (though the 29 max on 11/2/2002 is far more impressive.)  It was 19 when I reset the instrument at 9 last night, and up to 27-28 at 7 this morning, as clouds and milder H85s moved in.

 

Looks like our official New Sharon COOP was 32, which was second coldest for the date in their record.

[tamarack]

Looks like our official New Sharon COOP was 32, which was second coldest for the date in their record.

 

He's located on a slight but continuous slope, I'm at the base of a field, with the woods stopping the cold right at my instrument

[OceanStWx]

He's located on a slight but continuous slope, I'm at the base of a field, with the woods stopping the cold right at my instrument

 

Ah, the weenie spot in New Sharon.

[dendrite]

I'm in MI right now, but had a max of 30.7F at home yesterday. There looked like a few inches of snow along rt9 along the east slope of the southern Greens around 2kft. Lowest temp of the ride was in that area around 830am with 14F.

[tamarack]

Ah, the weenie spot in New Sharon.

 

We love our place at the end of the maintained road, on an 80-acre woodlot, but the real weenie spot in town would be some elevated valley off Mile Hill or York Hill Roads, at 800'+ (compared to 390' at home.)  That would feature the cold-pocket micro-topography, elevation for the marginal events, and maybe some upslope as winds climb over the Kennebec Highlands, rather than our current downslope from hills to north and west.  However, I'm trying to learn how not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  

 

Sunny and about 40 now in AUG, as the lack of storms continues.  Unless we get some serious precip, this Oct-Nov is a lock for 2nd driest at my place.  2001 with 3.49" is likely to hold 1st place (I'm at 2.43" at present and anticipate being 4"+ by 11/30) but 2nd - 6.77" last year thanks to just 0.84" in Nov - seems eminently beatable.

[mreaves]

I'm in MI right now, but had a max of 30.7F at home yesterday. There looked like a few inches of snow along rt9 along the east slope of the southern Greens around 2kft. Lowest temp of the ride was in that area around 830am with 14F.

How the f#&k did you get from the southern Greens at 8:30 this morning to MI now? Fly out of Albany?

[dendrite]

How the f#&k did you get from the southern Greens at 8:30 this morning to MI now? Fly out of Albany?

ha...sorry. We drove out yesterday. Got in here around 11pm.

[eyewall]

 

This looks reasonably promising for some snow in the CPV on Tuesday morning. I know BTV is certainly talking about accumulating upslope potential for the Tuesday/Wed time frame next week. The Euro had a more robust signal from what I understand but they haven't fully bought into that as of now.

[powderfreak]

Still high quality snow for skiing up there...

 

[Ginx snewx]

Still high quality snow for skiing up there...

 

Why aren"t you guys opening? 

[powderfreak]

Why aren"t you guys opening?

We are doing a seasons pass holder day only on Saturday and then opening on the 23rd.

It's better this way...the locals are getting lots of pow runs in. I haven't heard of any pressure locally to open. It's funny, but this time of year a lot of us are content with the private playground...just ask JSpin or ADK. It's really nice to have a couple weeks to earn your turns on a quiet mountain.

There will be plenty of lift riding coming up...I always really enjoy this time of year though if there's snow down.

[powderfreak]

The mountain is getting tracked out though...snow quality is still awesome, but there have been hundreds of folks out there the past few days. Every trail has a good deal of tracks by now.

Just a couple feet of mid-January powder out there.

Good start to the snowpack...

[wxeyeNH]

Nice location. 2K in Pittsburgh, NH just above the 45th parallel must be ultra special as I think 2K in the Berkshires is special.

 

I'm always curious what's going on weatherwise up in that neck of the woods because there really aren't too many spotters up there or radar coverage for that matter either.

This is a great webcam and temp is accurate too, I stayed there. I always check it out to see the weather along the

Canadian, NH boarder.

http://pittsburgridgerunners.org/PopUps/First_Lake_Lopstick.html

[Ginx snewx]

We are doing a seasons pass holder day only on Saturday and then opening on the 23rd.

It's better this way...the locals are getting lots of pow runs in. I haven't heard of any pressure locally to open. It's funny, but this time of year a lot of us are content with the private playground...just ask JSpin or ADK. It's really nice to have a couple weeks to earn your turns on a quiet mountain.

There will be plenty of lift riding coming up...I always really enjoy this time of year though if there's snow down.

Oh I would too but seems like a lost opportunity.

[powderfreak]

Oh I would too but seems like a lost opportunity.

Stowe's a destination resort...people travel and stay overnight and all that jazz. There's not a ton of day traffic that isn't season pass holders. Opening early doesn't really do much because no one has booked into rooms in area hotels and all that for skiing yet. Nothing is really lost by not opening in that regard if it makes sense.

Plus anyone around here seems content to hike/skin for it for now. A lot of the ski areas in northern VT are out of the day-trip range for the large population centers...and this time of year, people are really only doing day trips. There's a reason why even with a lot of snow and man-made snow, that areas like Stowe, Jay, Smuggs, Sugarbush, etc aren't opening yet. No one has booked vacations until Thanksgiving time when everyone gets the first wave of overnight guests.

[powderfreak]

For the GYX/CAR locations:

CAR...-0.6

BGR...-1.1

PWM..-1.5

CON...-1.7

More often than not, these 4 locations will come in at a fairly smooth gradient like this, though it can run in either dirrection.  However, if there's one station outside the gradient, it will almost always be BGR, and always cooler than would be expected.  Makes me wonder if its location has changed (geographically or in character) late in the 1981-2010 "normals" period.

 

 

 

That's sort of what I wonder with Montpelier/MVL... it is always the coldest relative to normal over here.  And often a solid 2F worth of departure colder than BTV and MVL.  They are at a higher elevation, but that should all be factored into the normals.  They do average like 2-3F colder in ambient temperature due to the elevation, but again, that shouldn't matter as that would be built into the "normals."

 

Like right now, the new departures are -1.1 at MVL and -3.3 at MPV.  They are in adjacent counties and there's been no prevailing pattern that has favored one over the other.  Both are east of the Spine, too.  Hard to see how they would be so much different in terms of departures from normal. 

[ono]

We are doing a seasons pass holder day only on Saturday and then opening on the 23rd.

It's better this way...the locals are getting lots of pow runs in. I haven't heard of any pressure locally to open. It's funny, but this time of year a lot of us are content with the private playground...just ask JSpin or ADK. It's really nice to have a couple weeks to earn your turns on a quiet mountain.

There will be plenty of lift riding coming up...I always really enjoy this time of year though if there's snow down.

 

 

helps get the legs and lungs in shape, too...

[powderfreak]

Check out this inversion...

It's 27F at the summit, and 28F down here at 750ft. But it's 34F at 2,200ft (Bolton) and 39F at 1600ft (Stowe)!

So that mid-slope elevation band is getting warm and not cooling at all this evening. Then there's BTV, which is 38F (causing that graph to go back up in the lowest elevations).

So the profile right now is odd but happens relatively frequently if there are winds mixing down to mid-slope elevations.

4000ft...27F

2,200ft...34F

1,600ft...39F

750ft...28F

300ft...38F

[J.Spin]

After hearing first hand reports from some of our students about the additional snow in the mountains that brought more great skiing, and seeing pictures like the one Powderfreak posted from Jay Peak, it felt like another trip to Mansfield was in order.  The temperature was definitely warmer this morning than what I encountered on Tuesday – it was even a bit above freezing in some of the mountain valleys, and around the freezing mark at the Midway Lot (~1,600’).  I had some nice morning views from the November sky as I started my ascent:

 

 

The snow conditions certainly aren’t as pristine now as they were a couple of days ago (or presumably yesterday), and from what I saw, that was due to a combination of skier traffic and wind.  I ascended the skin track up Midway and then Liftline, and since Liftline was riddled with wind crust, I decided to go for something more protected like Goat.  Some wind had still gotten in there, but it was definitely more protected.  And, as I probed along the skier’s left, there was certainly plenty of snow:

 

 

As Powderfreak said, there’s still high quality snow up there for skiing:

 

 

It was definitely warming up when I left, and I felt a little stickiness in the snow in the very lowest elevations (last couple hundred feet), so I’d say the snow down there will lose some of it’s fluffiness.  There’s still plenty of snow out there for those that want to make turns, but you just have to pick the lesser used areas now if you want untracked snow.

[Nittany88]

Check out this inversion...

It's 27F at the summit, and 28F down here at 750ft. But it's 34F at 2,200ft (Bolton) and 39F at 1600ft (Stowe)!

So that mid-slope elevation band is getting warm and not cooling at all this evening. Then there's BTV, which is 38F (causing that graph to go back up in the lowest elevations).

So the profile right now is odd but happens relatively frequently if there are winds mixing down to mid-slope elevations.

4000ft...27F

2,200ft...34F

1,600ft...39F

750ft...28F

300ft...38F

image.jpg

 

Lol that is pretty crazy.

[tamarack]

It was 19 when I reset the instrument at 9 last night, and up to 27-28 at 7 this morning, as clouds and milder H85s moved in.

 

Posted this yesterday morning.  When I checked the max-min last evening, I found that sometime between the two obs above, the temp fell to 9F - that's a 10F drop followed by a nearly 20F climb during 10 hours of darkness.  Don't recall ever seeing that kind of no-front/no-sun temp swing before.
 

[eyewall]

For the valley it is looking less optimistic for Tuesday in terms of snow. None the less we shall wait and see. I am sure the mountains will get at least some upslope then.

[powderfreak]

Another huge inversion this evening.... its already 30F in town at 750ft while its 46F up at the base of the ski area.  That's a nasty inversion.

 

4000ft...28F

2,600ft...32F

2,100ft...36F

1,600ft...46F

   750ft...30F

 

[J.Spin]

For the valley it is looking less optimistic for Tuesday in terms of snow. None the less we shall wait and see. I am sure the mountains will get at least some upslope then.

 

Yeah, I just took a quick look through the latest GFS and ECMWF runs – looks like Tuesday and then then Friday are the next opportunities for snow.  I see it in our point and click forecast for Monday night/Tuesday, and the NWS mentions the snow opportunities in their discussion:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. WINDS REMAIN RATHER BRISK AS THEY SHIFT INTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING. DURING TUESDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. 850 MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -12C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S.

 

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S...WITH SOME COLDER READINGS IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

[eyewall]

Yeah, I just took a quick look through the latest GFS and ECMWF runs – looks like Tuesday and then then Friday are the next opportunities for snow.  I see it in our point and click forecast for Monday night/Tuesday, and the NWS mentions the snow opportunities in their discussion:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. WINDS REMAIN RATHER BRISK AS THEY SHIFT INTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING. DURING TUESDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE. 850 MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -12C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S.

 

DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S...WITH SOME COLDER READINGS IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

 

Yeah they backed off in the point and click for the CPV. My guess is the reasoning is consistent with the model soundings drying things out before any snow can really develop here, with the mountains still able to squeeze out some upslope.

[eyewall]

I will add a look at the 12z GFS model soundings shows a little improvement from yesterday. Verbatim it would be a narrow window for snow between 6z and 12z Tuesday morning in the CPV.