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NNE Autumn 2013 Thread


MaineJayhawk

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Well, I just looked out toward the mountains and it seems that the next round of snow is incoming – not surprisingly, Mansfield is the harbinger from my viewpoint here at UVM with clouds and precipitation quickly lowering and obscuring the massif.  You have to love the rapid fire snowstorms, with barely an episode of clearing in between; it feels like winter in the Northern Greens:

 

11NOV13A.gif

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In BUFKIT the NAM is indicating snow for KBTV beginning around 11pm, but it is a short window as the column really dries out by 1-2am according to this morning's run. This is pretty consistent with the other models as well. It would certainly be nice if we get lucky, but I am not counting on it. It is too bad it will be a nocturnal event. I would have loved to go over to Underhill for this one (or somewhere similar).

Clouds started to move back in quickly after some blue sky.  Snizzle in Burlington @1:30pm.  Radar has one band moving in right now... Perhaps the NAM is late?  

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Clouds started to move back in quickly after some blue sky.  Snizzle in Burlington @1:30pm.  Radar has one band moving in right now... Perhaps the NAM is late?  

 

Yep I can confirm the snizzle and snow must be just above the sfc. The nam could very well be late if the profile aloft is already becoming favorable. We shall see.

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Winter came to the Greens in a big way last night... I still can't get over how much snow fell on that mountain.  The radar images from last night though are about as classic as it comes.   Big blobs of 30-40dbz pulsing into the mountain on composite radar usually means 1-2" per hour, if not more.  I've correlated 30dbz on composite radar to 1"/hr or more snowfall in most situations.  When its real fluffy, I've seen 30dbz produce 3"/hr type stuff. 

 

Anyway, a certain NWS employee enjoying his forecast today...

 

1395317_10101725268619720_529536689_n.jp

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Just issued by BTV:
 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT522 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-120500-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON522 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013...LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS AND FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRYTONIGHT. EXPECT A MARKED GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH THEFRONT...AND TEMPERATURES SHARPLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILLCHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW.SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE LOWERELEVATIONS...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEFLYLOWERED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. MOREIMPORTANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO FREEZE ONUNTREATED ROADS MAY RESULT IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS THISEVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.LOOK FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF SNOW SQUALLS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN600 AND 900 PM...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 900 AND 1100PM...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF QUICKLYCHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLCONDITIONS AND FREEZING POTENTIAL.
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Looking at Camel's Hump across the valley at about 2:30pm today:

 

Nice shot, eyewall!  I love the views of the Spine when its snow covered and BTV isn't.  Adds nice contrast although we'd rather just have snow everywhere, lol.

 

People always talk about micro-climates and differences in weather over short distances.... but not much compares with the differences seen within Chittenden County in VT.  Although the ski area is technically in Lamoille County, the top of the resort is on the Chittenden/Lamoille county lines... but compare what you are seeing in BTV vs. what it looks like here:

 

1466298_10151687202997382_1101563470_n.j

 

 

Even the precipitation amount differences are incredible for the cold season during upslope events.  In the summer with convection, you can get all sorts of wide precip amounts, but not this time of year.

 

BTV can have a few hundredths of precip, while here we had steady moderate rain most of yesterday afternoon and evening before it switched to snow.  The Stowe Village CoCoRAHS guy came in with similar amounts to myself... around 0.20" two days ago, then 0.64" yesterday and last night.  If only it was cold enough to snow for the entire event down here, would've been sizable. 

 

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Nice shot, eyewall!  I love the views of the Spine when its snow covered and BTV isn't.  Adds nice contrast although we'd rather just have snow everywhere, lol.

 

People always talk about micro-climates and differences in weather over short distances.... but not much compares with the differences seen within Chittenden County in VT.  Although the ski area is technically in Lamoille County, the top of the resort is on the Chittenden/Lamoille county lines... but compare what you are seeing in BTV vs. what it looks like here:

 

1466298_10151687202997382_1101563470_n.j

 

 

Even the precipitation amount differences are incredible for the cold season during upslope events.  In the summer with convection, you can get all sorts of wide precip amounts, but not this time of year.

 

BTV can have a few hundredths of precip, while here we had steady moderate rain most of yesterday afternoon and evening before it switched to snow.  The Stowe Village CoCoRAHS guy came in with similar amounts to myself... around 0.20" two days ago, then 0.64" yesterday and last night.  If only it was cold enough to snow for the entire event down here, would've been sizable. 

 

attachicon.gifNov11_precip24hr.png

 

Is that the base? How much there at 1500'?

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The Mansfield Co-Op data just came out, and although they *only* reported 11" of new snow, that is extremely impressive for that station.  It almost takes an act of God sometimes to get them to report double digits (it may only happen once or twice a winter), even though it happens quite frequently during the winter up there in the high elevations.  In fact, the NWS met I was with today and I were joking about how there's no way the coop will come in with double digits... but sure enough, the elevated can was able to collect over 10" of snow.

 

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW
24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 1.49 29 17 23 CLOUDY 11.0 14

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Wow that was one of the most rapid changeovers I have seen. i would say as soon as this main band hit with the front it took 1-2 minutes to go from rain to snow/sleet to mostly snow. We have about 0.1" in Winooski and although it has lightened up some it is still snowing.  Despite the rain everything dusted quickly.

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