NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

[eyewall]

Could see some accums on the western slopes Thursday night through possibly Friday. We shall see.

[powderfreak]

Could see some accums on the western slopes Thursday night through possibly Friday. We shall see.

 

Right now it looks pretty weak, but could see some flakes flying.  Ironically, it looks more like an east slope deal if anything occurs, but I know what you mean (upslope area).  Pretty deep westerly wind from SFC to 700mb, turning SWly at 500mb.  No presence of anything close to a north wind in the sounding, would lead me to believe Froude values would be greater than 1 behind the cold front.  The deep layer west flow won't allow for blocking on the west slopes.

[adk]

Right now it looks pretty weak, but could see some flakes flying.  Ironically, it looks more like an east slope deal if anything occurs, but I know what you mean (upslope area).  Pretty deep westerly wind from SFC to 700mb, turning SWly at 500mb.  No presence of anything close to a north wind in the sounding, would lead me to believe Froude values would be greater than 1 behind the cold front.  The deep layer west flow won't allow for blocking on the west slopes.

Not particularly excited about thurs-fri accum wise....but a few stray inches aren't unreasonable.  More interested in the reinforcing cold front modeled for tuesday the 11th.  I like when -10c 850 air with moisture moves in from the NW. 

[eyewall]

Right now it looks pretty weak, but could see some flakes flying.  Ironically, it looks more like an east slope deal if anything occurs, but I know what you mean (upslope area).  Pretty deep westerly wind from SFC to 700mb, turning SWly at 500mb.  No presence of anything close to a north wind in the sounding, would lead me to believe Froude values would be greater than 1 behind the cold front.  The deep layer west flow won't allow for blocking on the west slopes.

 

Yeah you are correct in that assumption on the westerly flow (with really no northward component) and it doesn't look like available moisture will be all that great either. A few snow showers in the higher terrain would about do it (with decent lapse rates).

[powderfreak]

Not particularly excited about thurs-fri accum wise....but a few stray inches aren't unreasonable.  More interested in the reinforcing cold front modeled for tuesday the 11th.  I like when -10c 850 air with moisture moves in from the NW. 

 

That 6z GFS run was ridiculous, haha.  -10C moving through at summit level...can you say "big fluffy flakes"

 

Regarding that Monday arctic FROPA... the 12 GFS has a WINDEX squall look to it with upslope enhancement and great cold.

 

[MaineJayhawk]

That 6z GFS run was ridiculous, haha. -10C moving through at summit level...can you say "big fluffy flakes"

Regarding that Monday arctic FROPA... the 12 GFS has a WINDEX squall look to it with upslope enhancement and great cold.

Ginxy fetish event

[Lava Rock]

still waiting for 1st flakes.

[dryslot]

Maybe next week

[eyewall]

I'll take a WINDEX event. I love convective snow squalls. I would love to shoot one as rolls across the lake one of these days.

[powderfreak]

I'll take a WINDEX event. I love convective snow squalls. I would love to shoot one as rolls across the lake one of these days.

 

Try to get out to a higher point with a view in like Underhill or something and watch it roll in and intensify as it approaches you and Mansfield. 

 

GGEM had the arctic front as well.  Might be the first chance for some more widespread snow showers in the North Country as it would be cold enough for snow as that moves through.  These can be real fun in November with decent lapse rates and cold front moving through. 

 

[powderfreak]

Awesome long term AFD by Taber this afternoon... always writes nice, detailed stuff. 

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
CLIPPER TIMING FOR SUNDAY AND ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFE ENSEMBLES...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING ACRS OUR
REGION...FOR TUES INTO WEDS. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS FLW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH MID/UPPER LVL
TROF BEING REPLACED BY ZONAL FLW AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL CHCS FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 4
THRU 7 DAYS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE NW FLW ALOFT
AND NO ADVECTION OF DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OR GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SUPPORTS HIGHEST POPS/QPF
AMOUNTS ACRS THE MTNS OF NORTHERN NY AND MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT THRU THE PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY...SFC WARM FRNT WL BE LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR
CWA...WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND OMEGA...ESPECIALLY
AFT 18Z. WL MENTION CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST QPF/POPS ACRS THE
MTNS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OF A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...MAYBE A
DUSTING TO 0.5" POSSIBLE...MAINLY MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-4C AND -6C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO L/M 40S WARMER
VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW AND CLOUDS WL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WHERE
SFC HIGH PRES WL BE LOCATED.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H VORT AND SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC
POPS...BUT QPF WL BE LIMITED AS BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF OUR CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -2C AND +2C BY 00Z
TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER
30S MTNS ABOVE 1800 FT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MUCH COLDER WITH 85H TEMPS BTWN -6C AND -8C ON MONDAY AND IF THIS
VERIFIES...TEMPS WL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
STILL A TIMING ISSUE BTWN FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO SECONDARY ARCTIC FRNT ON MONDAY OR TUES. WL TREND TWD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE FAST FLW ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION TRENDS TWD THE GFS WITH A FASTER ARRIVAL OF SFC
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...POTENT SFC BOUNDARY WL MOVE ACRS OUR
CWA...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS BY TUES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A SQUALL ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT...GOOD
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT. IN
ADDITION...FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND 850MB WL
HELP TO ADVECT LLVL LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA. WL MENTION
CHC POPS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUES...BUT QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM WL LIMIT
QPF AND MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA. AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IMPROVES...POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/MTNS OF VT WL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND FROPA ON TUES
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -11C AND -13C
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S VALLEYS TO 20S MTNS...WITH A VERY
CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BY 00Z THUR...WITH WARMING HGHTS ALOFT
AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[eyewall]

I will take your advice on Underhill for sure. Any particular spot in Underhill you would suggest?

[ono]

Stevensville Rd to Mountain Rd 

 

I will take your advice on Underhill for sure. Any particular spot in Underhill you would suggest?

 

Mountain Rd to Maple Leaf Rd. to Stevensville Rd- that loop would be my recommendation for Underhill views to the west.

[eyewall]

Stevensville Rd to Mountain Rd 

 

 

Mountain Rd to Maple Leaf Rd. to Stevensville Rd- that loop would be my recommendation for Underhill views to the west.

 

Thank you guys and this would certainly point to squalls, especially in the higher terrain. Obviously there are differences from the Euro so that makes one less certain, but I will be keeping an eye on it. If this verified there would certainly be ample moisture in the snow growth zone and good lapse rates, before things begin to dry out.

 

 

[eyewall]

No shortage of channeling here tonight in the CPV with winds gusting close to 40 mph at times.

[OceanStWx]

Thank you guys and this would certainly point to squalls, especially in the higher terrain. Obviously there are differences from the Euro so that makes one less certain, but I will be keeping an eye on it. If this verified there would certainly be ample moisture in the snow growth zone and good lapse rates, before things begin to dry out.

 

Definitely has some potential. BTV has done some good work trying to come up with an index for snow squalls (they have it on their WRF as one of the parameters, but it's not within the time range yet).

 

Some bootleg procedures I've made for the various models using their research definitely shows the requisite RH and unstable conditions in the low levels. Bufkit is keying on the signal as well, with low level omega and light QPF being spit out in the mountains (like BML).

[J.Spin]

I took a look at the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, and they seem to be in general agreement on the next couple of opportunities for snow – looks like another storm similar to this last one toward the end of the week, and then the flow appears to flatten and there’s something a bit more like last weekend.  That’s almost a week away, but anything resembling last weekend would be nice from a skier’s perspective.

 

Well, the first event is upon us now, and thus far the models seem to have been on track with these next couple of systems.  Now there’s that third potential round of snow in the pipe as well for Monday into Tuesday:

 

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SECOND CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO CHANCE POPS ONLY WITH MAINLY LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...SO COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF -SHRAS/-SHSN WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TIME WILL TELL.

 

Anyway, a quick visual inspection of the point forecast for Mt. Mansfield would certainly give one the impression that there are chances for snow coming up:

 

 

[eyewall]

Yeah I am sure I may be taking a trip or two up the Bolton road.

[powderfreak]

Pretty solid little rain event going on... still coming down and I was at 0.56" as of about a half hour ago.

 

However, the ski area base station is well ahead of us here in town with 0.9-1" already down and still raining harder up there under regenerating moderate echos.   Not uncommon at all to see that difference, and that's like those snow events where I have 5-6" in my driveway and there's 10" a few miles up the road. 

 

I like the cross-section gradient of precipitation amounts, fairly typical...Champlain Valley on the west side of the image with <0.2", gradually increasing up the west slope and maxing out around Mansfield, then declining on the other side down to 0.3-0.5". 

 

 

 

[Hitman]

just paid the plow guy for the season, so let it rip.

[powderfreak]

just paid the plow guy for the season, so let it rip.

 

The only way to guarantee snow is to sign a contact for pay-by-snowfall plowing

 

The plow company was out staking our driveway this week though, which got me in the mood.  You always hope you can bury those stakes by the end of the winter, lol.

[powderfreak]

0.62" from this event now that it looks to have wound down on radar. 

 

Base of the ski resort showing 1.09" electronically, though I'll check the manual gauge tomorrow morning to verify as no one else is showing near an inch with this storm on the meso-net. 

 

The river has come up a lot this morning though... much more than what a usual 0.5-1" rainfall would suggest but I guess that's probably because there's no living vegetation and its all just runoff.

 

[ctsnowstorm628]

Liking the prospects of some accumulating snow Sunday. Nice little distubance coming through...Euro prints out 2-4" for many outside the CPV.

[powderfreak]

 

Liking the prospects of some accumulating snow Sunday. Nice little distubance coming through...Euro prints out 2-4" for many outside the CPV.

 

 

Yeah we got that and then the frontal passage on Monday or Monday night.  I like the chance for a few squalls with that. 

[Hitman]

The only way to guarantee snow is to sign a contact for pay-by-snowfall plowing

 

The plow company was out staking our driveway this week though, which got me in the mood.  You always hope you can bury those stakes by the end of the winter, lol.

 I prefer to think of it as a donation to Ullr.

[dryslot]

 I prefer to think of it as a donation to Ullr.

 

And we appreciate your donation if it brings the goods

[powderfreak]

BTV has raised POPs to likely for Sunday and then the boundary on Monday night. I still like the upslope squall chance on Monday night. Will be fun when it gets into the range of the BTV4 with its custom squall parameters.

Saturday Night....Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Sunday....Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s.

Veterans Day...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Monday Night...Snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

[dryslot]

Snow showers here in the P&C for sat night-sun

[powderfreak]

Another awesome AFD by Taber in the long term...it's usually after 4pm when they come out but worth waiting for. I met up with him last week when he was in Stowe and it's great having a skier writing these AFD's from time to time. He was joking on how sometimes he spends so much time looking at weather over the mountains that he forgets he also needs to forecast the valleys too, lol. That's my type of meteorologist!

Great details on the upcoming week:

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... as of 405 PM EST Thursday...large scale synoptic pattern will continue to feature middle/upper level trough across the NE Continental U.S. For Sunday through middle of next week...resulting in blw normal temperatures and precipitation chances. Models in good agreement through next Tuesday with regards to tracking clipper like system to our north on Sunday...followed by a modified Arctic airmass on Monday into Tuesday. Still noticing some difference in timing between faster GFS and slower European model (ecmwf) solution...and potential impacts on temperatures Monday into Monday night...but trends have been toward a slightly faster GFS solutions. For middle to late next week lots of uncertainty with regards to middle/upper level trough deepening/sharpening across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic States and potential coastal system. GFS/Gem and most members of the GFS ensembles show a positively tilted trough axis with surface low pressure well off shore. However...the 00z European model (ecmwf) and now the 12z European model (ecmwf) continue to show potent short wave energy quickly developing a closed 500 mb/7h circulation across the southeast Continental U.S. On Wednesday into Thursday...and rapid coastal development. Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing of individual S/w's and interaction between northern/southern stream systems...and track of system...but trends will need to be watched closely over the next 4 to 6 days...as plenty of cold air will be in place across the NE Continental U.S.. the GFS ensemble slope shows a 16mb spread in the pressure fields across the eastern Continental U.S. On Thursday. Sunday-Monday...clipper like system will track from central Great Lakes into central Canada with potent 500 mb vorticity and some enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture impacting our central/northern County Warning Area. This will result in mountain snow showers and valley rain/snow showers late Sunday into Monday. A quick dusting to several inches will be possible across the mountains of northern New York into Vermont...with snow levels around 2kft...given 925mb temperatures between 1-2c. Weak surface ridge builds ahead of Arctic boundary on Monday morning...with some brief clearing and slightly cooler low level thermal profiles. Prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop between -4 and -6c by 18z Monday...supporting highs in the middle/upper 20s mountains to upper 30s to lower 40s warmer valleys on Monday. Monday night-Tuesday night...both GFS/European model (ecmwf) show Arctic boundary sweeping across our County Warning Area...with strong low level cold air advection developing on brisk northwest winds. Prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop between -12c and -14c by Tuesday...with 925mb temperatures near -10c...supporting highs only in the l/M 20s mountains to u20s to l30s mountains on Tuesday across our County Warning Area. BUFKIT profiles show good deep relative humidity through 600mb...along with couplet of enhanced 850 to 700mb Omega...in region of favorable snow growth...which should result in a burst of snow showers and snow squalls from west to east across our County Warning Area. Timing looks to be between 18z Monday and 06z Tuesday. Initially bl temperatures will be warm enough for a mixture of rain/snow across the valleys with prognosticated 925mb temperatures near 0c...but these will quickly fall as surface front sweeps across our County Warning Area. Also...still noticing leftover surface to 800mb relative humidity lingering into Tuesday...associated with upslope follow and low level cold air advection squeezing out the remaining moisture...so snow showers could continue across the favored northwest upslope regions of the dacks/Green Mountains overall...given quick movement of system duration of favorable moisture/dynamics will be between 2-4 hours in the valleys and 4 to 8 hours in the mountains...which could result in a 2 to 4 inch type snowfall above 1500 feet by midday Tuesday. Very cold night anticipated on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...with ecm guidance suggesting 7f at slk and upper teens cpv. However...a large spread is indicated in the guidance...therefore will trend slightly warmer with lows near 10f slk/colder valleys/mountains to u10s to l20s valleys. Weds-Thursday...surface high pressure will result in a dry Wednesday with blw normal temperatures...with many locations not reaching 32f. Will mention low chance probability of precipitation for Thursday...but once again confidence is very low on any coastal system impacting our region at this time. Stay tuned. &&

[J.Spin]

Another awesome AFD by Taber in the long term...it's usually after 4pm when they come out but worth waiting for. I met up with him last week when he was in Stowe and it's great having a skier writing these AFD's from time to time. He was joking on how sometimes he spends so much time looking at weather over the mountains that he forgets he also needs to forecast the valleys too, lol. That's my type of meteorologist!

 

Great stuff PF, thanks for passing that along.  I can certainly see where he’s coming from with respect to the mountain weather; it basically means higher frequency and magnitude of what many weather enthusiasts find most interesting, especially with regard to winter.