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NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

MaineJayhawk

By MaineJayhawk,
in New England

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I keep waiting to see if MVL will switch over...numerous posts on FB from friends saying it's snowing in town but not sticking obviously. That's usually how it goes if it's starting to stick at the ski area base, we'll get cat paw flakes in town.

 

My wife said that there was definitely snow falling in Morrisville today – her first graders were glued to the window whenever the white stuff made an appearance.

 

Directly related to that… I could only assume we’d had some flakes here at the house based on the reports from around the area, but as of this evening it’s official.  A while back I heard the intensity of the rain outside pick up substantially, so I decided to see if that brought down any snow with it, and indeed the flakes were mixing in.  After a look at the local radar, I can see that the intensity was associated with that streamer of precipitation dropping southward into the Winooski Valley/I-89 corridor:

 

24OCT13C.gif

 

It seemed very likely that we’d get a touch of snow at some point with the current weather pattern, but having recently checked my records, that actually means there’s been frozen precipitation here at the house in October for eight out of the last eight seasons.  I haven’t tried to work up the numbers for first appearance of frozen precipitation/snowfall here, but I do have the numbers for first accumulating snow, and the mean is October 26th ± 12 days, so we’re very close to that date.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

 

My wife said that there was definitely snow falling in Morrisville today – her first graders were glued to the window whenever the white stuff made an appearance.

 

Directly related to that… I could only assume we’d had some flakes here at the house based on the reports from around the area, but as of this evening it’s official.  A while back I heard the intensity of the rain outside pick up substantially, so I decided to see if that brought down any snow with it, and indeed the flakes were mixing in.  After a look at the local radar, I can see that the intensity was associated with that streamer of precipitation dropping southward into the Winooski Valley/I-89 corridor:

 

 

 

Nice, J.Spin.  Sounds like the same as what people were saying in Stowe Village vs. what your wife was seeing in Morrisville.  I was waiting for MVL to show that first official -SN obs but it never did.  I remember last year on that October 12th event it snowed most of the afternoon in Stowe at my condo at 750ft but MVL only had one -SN ob and a bunch of -RN obs.  It must err on the side of liquid in these marginal situations. 

 

Curious, how much liquid precip did you pick up today in the gauge? 

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted

It does seem like a really cool climate... if I wasn't so unhealthily obsessed with skiing, that would be a cool spot to be.  But it takes being "out there" to a whole new level. 

 

Its actually really busy up there in the winter. Snowmobile industry is huge up there. I find local climate up there fascinating, elevation is everything. Ive been going up there since I was little, its a pretty cool place. Id love to have a place on the first ct lake.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Curious, how much liquid precip did you pick up today in the gauge?

 

I cleared out that 0.02” this morning from last night’s activity, and found 0.03” new in the gauge when I got home this evening at ~5:30 PM or so.  After your inquiry, I went out and checked at around 8:45 PM, and there’s now 0.12" in there, so we’ve certainly seen an increase in the precipitation this evening with almost a tenth of an inch.  A light rain was still falling when I was out there.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

Awesome AFD... looking forward to a lot more of these this winter.  Seems spot on, though I'd imagine there's another inch or so at 3,500ft+ by now.  Could see something like 4-5" up there tomorrow morning.  As of 8pm, it looks like its starting to wind down and back up a bit on the western slope (echos not making it as far east on the 1.5 degree scan)...pretty much exactly as forecast in the AFD.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 616 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE

POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST MINOR UPSLOPE EVENT

OF THE SEASON CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON

WATER VAPOR LOOP ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z

SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE. CURRENT

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND FROUDE NUMBERS GREATER THAN ONE SUGGESTING

THAT MOST PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE

SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL

OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS 1.5 DEGREE KCXX RADAR SCAN. ACCUMULATIONS

SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS TO AROUND A HALF INCH

AT 1500 FEET TO 2.5 INCHES ON MOUNT MANSFIELD AT JUST UNDER 4000

FEET. BY 03Z...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND FROUDE NUMBERS

LOWER...SUGGESTING THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE BLOCKED ALLOWING FOR

PRECIPITATION TO BACK UP ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...HOWEVER MOISTURE

WILL BE DECREASING BY THAT TIME...SO RAIN/SNOW WILL BE TAPERING

OFF. MOUNT MANSFIELD REGIONAL MESONET OBS SHOW FREEZING LEVEL IS

AROUND 2500 FEET BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY

MIDNIGHT. THUS WHILE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE

VALLEYS...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE HIGHER

TERRAIN. LOOKING AT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT FROM A COATING- HALF INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AROUND

AN INCH AT 1500-2000 FEET...TO SEVERAL INCHES ON TOP OF MOUNT

MANSFIELD...MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ROAD SURFACES

SHOULD REMAIN WET...HOWEVER AS SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES

DROP...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SO DRIVE

CAUTIOUSLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A MAINLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS

FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

 

You can see the flow change from unblocked to blocked in these couple of frames below. Granted its all weak reflectivities, but still cool to see.

 

30m26h4.gif

 

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CXX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N1R&frame=0&scale=0.428&noclutter=0&lat=44.46126175&lon=-73.19718170&label=South+Burlington%2C+VT&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=353&centery=223&transx=-47&transy=-17&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

 

Obs at MPV show it too, rain ended and sky went FEW.

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted

Just drove in from Ontario via the northern corridor on the NY border- Rt 11   Between Chataguay and Ellenburg, at the high point around the massive wind farm ~1200ft, the temp went from 42 dropping to 38F in the car, and the flakes started falling.  temp was back up to ~44F around Swanton on the lake.

 

knew something would be happening in the Greens at that point.  Good to see it really turned on after watching the webcams this morning.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

Here's 2 screen captures showing the difference too:

Unblocked-

2qcjbe1.jpg

 

Blocked-

f9mjwx.gif

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Here's 2 screen captures showing the difference too:

Unblocked-

 

 

Blocked-

 

 

I noticed it happened really, really quickly, tonight... pretty much right after the sun went down.  Did that have anything to do with it?  Nocturnal stuff?  It always seems like upslope organizes better on the western slopes at night, I always wondered if it was a nocturnal inversion or something.  Froude now at 0.44.

 

Looking at the wunderground VAD, there's a wind shift in the lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere to more northerly... which usually means western slopes and backing up as it goes more northerly.  But what caused that to happen so quickly in that lowest slice of the atmosphere this evening?

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Nittany... that loop you posted above of it going unblocked to blocked is awesome.  Like 4 frames it went from precipitating in the RT 100 corridor to nothing, while stuff developed westward into the eastern Champlain Valley almost.   MVL also stopped precipitating pretty suddenly at that time.  The orientation of the band of echoes goes suddenly from due north-south to northeast-southwest...that's an awesome radar capture. 

 

Still looks like Mansfield is getting some good echos on the 2.45 degree scan (1.5 scan seems blocked by the mountain in that area) there in that little pocket of Lamoille County just east of RT 108... radar looks like its probably snowing down to the base area of the ski resort and then stops like 200 yards down the road, lol.   But the echos have backed up all the way to near I89 at times near Milton and in Franklin County...don't know if that's reaching the ground or not back there though.  The other area you can notice the blocking is down in Addison County... that more NNW low level wind has backed echoes into Hinesburg and even into the RT 7 area, when earlier it was into the Sugarbush/Warren/Waitsfield area of Washington County.

 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Well, the Mansfield point forecast is looking pretty nice as we close out the month of October:

 

24OCT13C.jpg

 

…and reading the long term part of the BTV NWS discussion was a lot more intriguing than I thought it would be.  Whatever happens, it sure looks like there’s moisture to watch going forward:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW PSBL IN THE HIGHER TRRN ABOUT 1500 FT OR ABOVE EARLY SUNDAY. MORE SHOWERS PSBL ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...SHOW SHOWERS PSBL AT 1000FT AND ABOVE EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST TRRN PSBLY REMAINING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MONDAY NT INTO TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THRU LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

 

12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT...BUT STILL MUCH DISPARITY EXISTS IN THE DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...WITH SNOW PSBLY REACHING THE VALLEYS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. GFS SHOWS SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO BE MUCH STRONGER AND WELL DEFINED...AND DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENING (DARE I SAY BOMBOGENESIS?) AS IT NEARS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN FEATURE BEING THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WITH LESS QPF AND WIND WITH A WEAK LOW REFLECTED AT THE SFC MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO HAVE A SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA.

 

BOTH MODELS SHOW A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO WITH REGARDS TO THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT SLOWER ECMWF SOLN HAVING THE STRONGER SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.

 

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FILTERS IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COLDEST TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE M-U20S IN THE VALLEYS AND TEENS TO L20S IN THE HIGH TRRN.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

I noticed it happened really, really quickly, tonight... pretty much right after the sun went down. Did that have anything to do with it? Nocturnal stuff? It always seems like upslope organizes better on the western slopes at night, I always wondered if it was a nocturnal inversion or something. Froude now at 0.44.

Looking at the wunderground VAD, there's a wind shift in the lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere to more northerly... which usually means western slopes and backing up as it goes more northerly. But what caused that to happen so quickly in that lowest slice of the atmosphere this evening?

https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif[ /img]VAD.gif

Yup, a lot of the time the blocking does increase because of the developing nocturnal inversion or lowering of any other inversions, and then the blocking decreases during the day as mixing increases and lapse rates rise. In this particular case, the shift to more northerly winds you noted played a larger role too.
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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

I want to go visit Pittsburg NH just to see what its like...but people think I'm crazy for wanting to take a day trip there one weekend from Plymouth lol.

Here's a web cam link a friend of mine showed me of Pittsburg, NH. Make sure to check out the time lapse video too.

 

http://www.cabinsatlopstick.com/GNW/WebCam.html

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

I want to go visit Pittsburg NH just to see what its like...but people think I'm crazy for wanting to take a day trip there one weekend from Plymouth lol.

Not exactly the normal college weekend road trip LOL. Of course Sherbrooke, PQ isn't that far away. I've had some fun there at night.
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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

The mix of rain and snow clearly kept up overnight to reveal 0.23” of liquid in the gauge this morning, and the precipitation continued at observations time in the form of light and at times even moderate rain/snow.  The temperature reading at the house was 36.5F, so it’s not surprising that there was no visible snow accumulation, but the snow line shouldn’t be too far up with mid 30s F in the valleys.  With the way the precipitation stayed on overnight, it will be interesting to hear the accumulations that are reported from the higher elevations – the Mt. Mansfield temperature on the ridgeline is at 24 F, so there’s no question about the frozen state of any precipitation up there.  The latest radar nicely shows some of the streamers of moisture hitting the mountains:

 

25OCT13A.gif

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

There it is. Only 0.1", 1.4" total.

Stupid Greens robbing all our moisture.

This is what has been reported to me this morning...snowmaking is occurring too!

1,550ft...2" (on colder or elevated surfaces)

2,000ft...3-3.5"

3,000ft...5.5-6"

3,600ft...6-7"

WCAX Facebook had a picture and caption of 5.5" in the snow gauge this morning at the summit and I'm assuming they emptied it when the 2.5" COOP report came in at 430pm yesterday afternoon. That would put the storm total at around 4000ft at 8" I think.

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