HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's worth noting that the 18z RAP is much wetter than the 17z. I think you may be jumping the gun a little bit second guessing your forecast. Radar returns over west GA don't look that bad and models are fairly consistent with over an inch liquid. The RAP seems to be trending that way slowly. I could be totally off base on this, but it's still early. Oh I hope my revised forecast goes down in flames. Just enough on radar to make me second guess my original call. What a difficult science we study! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's worth noting that the 18z RAP is much wetter than the 17z. I think you may be jumping the gun a little bit second guessing your forecast. Radar returns over west GA don't look that bad and models are fairly consistent with over an inch liquid. The RAP seems to be trending that way slowly. I could be totally off base on this, but it's still early. By the way, your analysis is excellent! Keep that positive energy coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 By the way, your analysis is excellent! Keep that positive energy coming! Thanks! Not worth a whole lot at this point, but the 15z SREF give AVL about 1.25 inches liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks! Not worth a whole lot at this point, but the 15z SREF give AVL about 1.25 inches liquid. Really?! We had 0.03" this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Really?! We had 0.03" this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yikes! not what i wanted to hear. Time to break out the speedos for the 10M platform. Come on down, you'll like it down here. Nobody ever talks about what's at the bottom of the cliff. Rather nice, your worries are over. Very peaceful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For all you cliff divers near Boone * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...UP TO 18 INCHES NEAR AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18 Z Asheville Sounding/Balloon Launch...Enjoy! http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For all you cliff divers near Boone * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...UP TO 18 INCHES NEAR AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. Well that seems like a good sign for everyone in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18 Z Asheville Sounding/Balloon Launch...Enjoy! http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html Can see why it remains a balmy 28 degrees at 6100 feet (810 millibars). Note that 25 knot low-level winds are the about the bare minimum for mtn enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z NAM was solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hurricane, I think with short range models showing such high qpf values you have at least take notice of that. Although radar presentation is poor at the moment. Once the phase takes place and h5 closes off the precip rates will be very high for someone in or adjacent to the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar returns in north Georgia are giving me a little bit of hope. I want to see some green and yellow make it up into the mountains. On a side note, it seems like the central mountains end up in these "snow holes" quite a bit in these kind of situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoi_polloi9 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Come on down, you'll like it down here. Nobody ever talks about what's at the bottom of the cliff. Rather nice, you're worries are over. Very peaceful. I'll bring the meats for a cookout and a beer or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar returns in north Georgia are giving me a little bit of hope. I want to see some green and yellow make it up into the mountains. On a side note, it seems like the central mountains end up in these "snow holes" quite a bit in these kind of situations. Lot of it is more of a radar artifact than reality. For instance, my location is nearly 100% beam blocked at base scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hurricane, I think with short range models showing such high qpf values you have at least take notice of that. Although radar presentation is poor at the moment. Once the phase takes place and h5 closes off the precip rates will be very high for someone in or adjacent to the apps I had the same analysis at 10am. It just seems to be taking forever to happen. Typically when it takes longer, the QPF is lower. Short range models should have taken that into account though. But I think they may be a little too aggressive. I do hope my revised amounts are wrong. But since 7am we have .25" of snow here. Long way to go if we want to get up to 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are the flakes still very small where everyone is? I had a few big flake showers but for the most part it's been very small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is insistent on this! But I think major changes are needed for the wNC forecast. Based on very poor radar representation upstream from the mountains, and from the latest HRRR which has snow ending much sooner than forecast, and since we are still waiting on the first good band to come into the mountains, snow totals will need to be lowered substantially. Please note, this is not a cliff dive! This is a re-evaluation of current conditions. That all being taken into account, I am lowering my forecast for AVL. I had originally predicted 8-12" for the area. I don't see this happening (and if it does, I'll happy eat the crow for being wrong). But all things considered, a new forecast value for AVL is 3-5", mostly from 5pm to 10pm tonight. Thoughts from others? I'm just little disappointed atmosphere around here didn't take advantage of it... I want to be in extreme weather for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF average looks like its right around a foot. Only two plumes are below 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lot of it is more of a radar artifact than reality. For instance, my location is nearly 100% beam blocked at base scan. Yeah, but i was referring to actual precip rates as opposed to just the depiction on the radar. Better returns to the south, east, and west of us. But here, very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar returns in north Georgia are giving me a little bit of hope. I want to see some green and yellow make it up into the mountains. On a side note, it seems like the central mountains end up in these "snow holes" quite a bit in these kind of situations. And A rather large hole at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, but i was referring to actual precip rates as opposed to just the depiction on the radar. Better returns to the south, east, and west of us. But here, very little. I can assure you that radar holes always seems to have a nasty habit of forming over the weather observer during any significant event! However, you really only notice them when they happen to be overhead..not when all your neighbors get them! In this case, it is mostly real..probably caused by the sinking air behind that convective cluster than formed South in Georgia earlier in the day then advected our way and before upper level dynamics coming in from the West have had time to act on the existing moisture in place. At least it is going away quickly with heavy snow coming in out of Georgia now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 heavy snow is back heavy precip moving in from south Carolina and northeast Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 314 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL...LOWERING TO 1009 MB. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER COOLING CLOUD TOPS WEST TO AL. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING 12Z THURS. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A VERY INTERESTING DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 18Z THURS...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF QPF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE. I WILL NOD TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS AND CONTINUE POPS WELL INTO THURS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESSER QPF. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.9 ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA. EVENTUALLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...AIDING DRYING FROM SW TO NE. POPS WILL DECREASE WITHIN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOLDING ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Channel 4 met is still calling for good amounts for us. He also implied that the comma head would keep us in business for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just read that disco. GSP is still calling for an inch liquid in the mountains. Looks like we're still in business, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One thing that has surprised me is the past hour I have been getting some decent snow despite being under almost no heavy echos EDIT- I would love to hear Franklin's obs.. looks like he is getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Grids are updated and GSP is bullish! For AVL, 3-5 today, 3-5 tonight, and 1-3 tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar looks most promising in the whole time since it started. Definitely some yellows showing up and heading inbound. I am somehow reminded of January 98. A long lull... and then it absolutely hammered for 5 or 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not only that, but Robert from wxsouth is going with a blend of GFS and Euro for a total of about a foot for most of the mountains. Hold on, I need to go catch a crow for Tracker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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