jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everyone calm down! The mountains are filling in with snow, as is the radar. GSP has states that the forecast is on track and even mentioned the possibility of thundersnow. Everything is going to work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We were all beginners once. Give us a storm or two before we figure what's going on. We haven't live in the mountains for a decade, ya know... I do understand the frustrating of negativity, though. EDIT: Apparently, the timing busted but everything else is still on track with the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Model consensus is still around 1.2 inches liquid for Asheville (based on NAM, GFS, more on SREF). The timing busted a little bit, but it's still going to be a major storm this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You have got to be shi++ing me man, come on. Unbelievable. Rookies I've been doing this for quite a while man. We all have. This is my fifth winter where I've followed it real hard and bought maps and such. It doesn't look good. I just don't feel this one anymore. Models still throwing out ridiculous totals still. This is my first winter in the mountains, but I don't remember a gulf low starting like this for this area. Time will tell. Until then, SnowJoe and I will be mid-jump. But let's not call anyone a rookie. My friends know that I know a thing or two about the weather, and the last thing I need to is my balls being busted because I went with 8-12" and we end up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My best snow of the day right now. I have about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We are getting hammered with the fatties now! 3 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GEFS shows a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We are getting hammered with the fatties now! 3 inches on the ground. 2" new at 28 deg still. (About 4" total on ground.) I must say it is like watching paint dry as it took half the day to get that..looking forward to some higher snowfall rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mike the light snow this morning was really a bonus thanks to the waa precip. Now the main show begins should get even heavier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is anyone a bit concerned about the hole in the radar forming over NE GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mike the light snow this morning was really a bonus thanks to the waa precip. Now the main show begins should get even heavier too. Looks like we could still have subpar snow rates for several more hours based on radars in N. Georgia. I think 12" amounts at most are going to be the limit locally..or less. I think the window for a mega snow has passed. (No so for points to the NE.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 light snow here for past hour. nice thick dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been doing this for quite a while man. We all have. This is my fifth winter where I've followed it real hard and bought maps and such. It doesn't look good. I just don't feel this one anymore. Models still throwing out ridiculous totals still. This is my first winter in the mountains, but I don't remember a gulf low starting like this for this area. Time will tell. Until then, SnowJoe and I will be mid-jump. But let's not call anyone a rookie. My friends know that I know a thing or two about the weather, and the last thing I need to is my balls being busted because I went with 8-12" and we end up an inch or two. Allow me to throw you a rope to climb back off the cliff. 12Z Euro was absolutely SPOT ON with the current radar and progression of the storm. That being said, it is a little slower to develop, but that won't change the end result. Stick to your guns, look at the maps, water vapor, etc., and you will see that your 8-12" call is going to verify. Euro pastes us all between 7pm and midnight, then the comma head moves over 12Z tomorrow morning. It's looking good to me. GEFS, RGEM, and even the NAM (gasp!) has us 12" in AVL and many mountain sites by tomorrow 18Z. We have a full 24-hours left in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Allow me to throw you a rope to climb back off the cliff. 12Z Euro was absolutely SPOT ON with the current radar and progression of the storm. That being said, it is a little slower to develop, but that won't change the end result. Stick to your guns, look at the maps, water vapor, etc., and you will see that your 8-12" call is going to verify. Euro pastes us all between 7pm and midnight, then the comma head moves over 12Z tomorrow morning. It's looking good to me. GEFS, RGEM, and even the NAM (gasp!) has us 12" in AVL and many mountain sites by tomorrow 18Z. We have a full 24-hours left in this storm. I agree with this, Tracker. That said, does the comma head really not cross the area until 12z tomorrow? It looked to me like the RAP ended precipitation long before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree with this, Tracker. That said, does the comma head really not cross the area until 12z tomorrow? It looked to me like the RAP ended precipitation long before that. Even at this late hour in the storm, there are noticeable differences in the model on the placement of the center of the low pressure. Euro insists it will be slightly inland. I just saw the latest HRRR which does have precip ending before the comma head goes over us. Still too early to say much about that. Lots of storm development left this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been doing this for quite a while man. We all have. This is my fifth winter where I've followed it real hard and bought maps and such. It doesn't look good. I just don't feel this one anymore. Models still throwing out ridiculous totals still. This is my first winter in the mountains, but I don't remember a gulf low starting like this for this area. Time will tell. Until then, SnowJoe and I will be mid-jump. But let's not call anyone a rookie. My friends know that I know a thing or two about the weather, and the last thing I need to is my balls being busted because I went with 8-12" and we end up an inch or two. Yeah I've been following models heavely for 5 years while in the mountains. Let's hear what you predicted then yesterday, and what is your current prediction. Looking forward to hearing from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Awesome Tracker. Staying strong down here in the Southern foothills. Even at this late hour in the storm, there are noticeable differences in the model on the placement of the center of the low pressure. Euro insists it will be slightly inland. I just saw the latest HRRR which does have precip ending before the comma head goes over us. Still too early to say much about that. Lots of storm development left this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man, I need to stop watching the RAP...too depressing. Keeps dropping less and less QPF for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everyone take a moment and stare at this for a few minutes. You will note that there is a strong wave over Kansas, JUST BEGINNING its phase with the southern stream system. This is exactly as the 12Z Euro had it today. Full phase by 00Z tonight - it happens quick. There will be an explosive related development on radar at that time. Water vapor told me this - not models! http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140212&endTime=-1&duration=8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Everyone take a moment and stare at this for a few minutes. You will note that there is a strong wave over Kansas, JUST BEGINNING its phase with the southern stream system. This is exactly as the 12Z Euro had it today. Full phase by 00Z tonight - it happens quick. There will be an explosive related development on radar at that time. Water vapor told me this - not models! http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140212&endTime=-1&duration=8 Very interesting. What are the implications of this phase? BTW, I really appreciate your input on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very interesting. What are the implications of this phase? BTW, I really appreciate your input on this board! Implications are that the forecast from the 12Z Euro (and run it had since Monday) is right on track. The later start might trim totals down just a bit, but I still feel comfortable with at least 8" in AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just took my first measurement...1.75 inches in Hendersonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Chris Justus said to not fret about the drying moisture. The atmosphere in WNC still needs to saturate and that the system for WNC is still only in its infancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Had about 30 minutes of light snow. Stopped now. Dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z RAP has some very high rates at hour 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z RAP has some very high rates at hour 9. It is insistent on this! But I think major changes are needed for the wNC forecast. Based on very poor radar representation upstream from the mountains, and from the latest HRRR which has snow ending much sooner than forecast, and since we are still waiting on the first good band to come into the mountains, snow totals will need to be lowered substantially. Please note, this is not a cliff dive! This is a re-evaluation of current conditions. That all being taken into account, I am lowering my forecast for AVL. I had originally predicted 8-12" for the area. I don't see this happening (and if it does, I'll happy eat the crow for being wrong). But all things considered, a new forecast value for AVL is 3-5", mostly from 5pm to 10pm tonight. Thoughts from others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is insistent on this! But I think major changes are needed for the wNC forecast. Based on very poor radar representation upstream from the mountains, and from the latest HRRR which has snow ending much sooner than forecast, and since we are still waiting on the first good band to come into the mountains, snow totals will need to be lowered substantially. Please note, this is not a cliff dive! This is a re-evaluation of current conditions. That all being taken into account, I am lowering my forecast for AVL. I had originally predicted 8-12" for the area. I don't see this happening (and if it does, I'll happy eat the crow for being wrong). But all things considered, a new forecast value for AVL is 3-5", mostly from 5pm to 10pm tonight. Thoughts from others? I agree, totals will likely need to be lowered. Though I think 3-5 is a bit extreme. I was thinking more along the lines of 4-8. We'll see what GSP says this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is insistent on this! But I think major changes are needed for the wNC forecast. Based on very poor radar representation upstream from the mountains, and from the latest HRRR which has snow ending much sooner than forecast, and since we are still waiting on the first good band to come into the mountains, snow totals will need to be lowered substantially. Please note, this is not a cliff dive! This is a re-evaluation of current conditions. That all being taken into account, I am lowering my forecast for AVL. I had originally predicted 8-12" for the area. I don't see this happening (and if it does, I'll happy eat the crow for being wrong). But all things considered, a new forecast value for AVL is 3-5", mostly from 5pm to 10pm tonight. Thoughts from others? Yikes! not what i wanted to hear. Time to break out the speedos for the 10M platform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is insistent on this! But I think major changes are needed for the wNC forecast. Based on very poor radar representation upstream from the mountains, and from the latest HRRR which has snow ending much sooner than forecast, and since we are still waiting on the first good band to come into the mountains, snow totals will need to be lowered substantially. Please note, this is not a cliff dive! This is a re-evaluation of current conditions. That all being taken into account, I am lowering my forecast for AVL. I had originally predicted 8-12" for the area. I don't see this happening (and if it does, I'll happy eat the crow for being wrong). But all things considered, a new forecast value for AVL is 3-5", mostly from 5pm to 10pm tonight. Thoughts from others? It's worth noting that the 18z RAP is much wetter than the 17z. I think you may be jumping the gun a little bit second guessing your forecast. Radar returns over west GA don't look that bad and models are fairly consistent with over an inch liquid. The RAP seems to be trending that way slowly. I could be totally off base on this, but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ouch....l shouldn't be upset though, that's what I expected after the slow start and poor moisture this morning. Thanks for your insight. So much for historic .... The models all show heavy totals still but I just don't see it on the radar still waiting in the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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