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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Can someone give me the rundown? It looks like it's a little slower than expected. Are we still on track for 10 inches or so?

 

We're just waiting on the negative tilt to kick in which is later. Heaviest snow should come later in the day going into darkness.

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GSP is all over this event!  Even mentions negative EPV (i.e, thunder!!)

 

AS OF 1120 AM...NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL SEE HEAVY  
SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS  
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE  
PANHANDLE OF FL. INITIAL SNOW FROM MORNING JET DIVERGENCE HAS  
PRODUCED 1 INCH ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO OVER 5 INCHES AT  
GREENWOOD. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. 12Z NAM  
INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD  
NORTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 18Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE  
WITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...PRODUCING A  
SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN  
ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE  
FIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID  
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD  
LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE  
NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE  
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING A H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE  
EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA.  
 
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST  
ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC  
FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING.  

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Hurricane tracker does the thunder snow come with the h5. Low closing off and us being under it?

Snow has really picked up again with the flakes getting bigger. When I was out with the kids earlier it was not the wettest. Really had to pack it to make a snowball. Waiting on the mashed potatoes!

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Hurricane tracker does the thunder snow come with the h5. Low closing off and us being under it?

Snow has really picked up again with the flakes getting bigger. When I was out with the kids earlier it was not the wettest. Really had to pack it to make a snowball. Waiting on the mashed potatoes!

 

Two comments:

 

1. Yes, as the H5 low closes off right over the southern Apps, that should be our best chance for thunder as the cold pool associated with the upper low drifts overhead, steepening the lapse rates.  Could be wild for someone wherever thunder or mesoscale banding sets up.  Some snow totals will go through the roof in these areas - but it should be very isolated.

 

2. Snow ratios are light currently.  That is forecast.  As the system winds up off the coast, our thermal profiles aloft actually warm enough at 850 and 700 to make a deep isothermal layer through the dendritic growth zone.  Thus, flake sizes should increase dramatically this afternoon and "mashed potatoes" snow will be increasingly common.

 

Stay safe everyone!  We are "green green green" for a big snow here in the mountains!

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Almost 12 and not a flake. Boone is reporting Fair conditions. That's got to be wrong.

Temps still on a slow rise. Now 19.2 from a low of 14.4. Wind seems to have settled some.

Nope, conditions are pretty fair outside. This is so frustrating. For so many days it looked like we'd be the golden spot, now I'm wondering if we'll even see a flake. Just wow. So much for big totals.

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Nope, conditions are pretty fair outside. This is so frustrating. For so many days it looked like we'd be the golden spot, now I'm wondering if we'll even see a flake. Just wow. So much for big totals.

 

 

I feel your pain. I've lived here for 52 years and have seen this happen several times before where the northern mountains gets skunked by this type of system. Maybe we'll have a good flow snow before the winter is over. Seems that's all we can count on any more. But hey, we get more snow than a lot of people so while frustrating, I'll take what I get and be happy.

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I feel your pain. I've lived here for 52 years and have seen this happen several times before where the northern mountains gets skunked by this type of system. Maybe we'll have a good flow snow before the winter is over. Seems that's all we can count on any more. But hey, we get more snow than a lot of people so while frustrating, I'll take what I get and be happy.

I went to bed thinking "okay 8-12"+ seems very likely and it'll probably be more".

Nope. Nada. I'll consider a dusting a success. Third day in a row we've been bent over when it comes to snow. Too frustrating.

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I went to bed thinking "okay 8-12"+ seems very likely and it'll probably be more".

Nope. Nada. I'll consider a dusting a success. Third day in a row we've been bent over when it comes to snow. Too frustrating.

 

Don't jump off the cliff yet. It's still too early. It wasn't even predicted to really start in the mountains until early afternoon.

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