strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow. Thanks Don. I tried to sign up and I recalled I did back in 2012.. lol Can't remember who to give credit to but someone on the board posted this link about a year ago. It's a great free tool! http://www.simuawips.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Morning Tracker. I assume KAVL gets the 1" today FWIW, latest SREF had AVL mean now up to 15"! What a storm this should be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No snow yet and a balmy 26. Looking at BUFKIT profiles suggest either a low level temperature inversion or perhaps an isothermal layer throughout most of the storm so lower areas will likely be colder. Because of this-and lack of strong low-level winds-I doubt there will be much mtn top enhancement compared to valley locations this time around.(except as compared to the basin areas near Cherokee.) It will be fun to see if this turns out to be the case or not. I assume Mt Mitchell will do crazy well..for reasons I don't fully understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I was thinking earlier that the Escarpment area would do the best in this storm but not so obvious now due to fact that a lot of the snowfall maybe in the wrap around comma head if the low tracks more inland which should even out the snowfall distribution a bit in the mtns. The latest NWS map hints at this. Kind of wild that the 850mb is all the way back in Alabama at 7PM tonight shown here on the GFS...just shows how continuous the moisture feed will be out of the southeast throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 FWIW, latest SREF had AVL mean now up to 15"! What a storm this should be! wow unbelievable. we're over due so I guess mother nature is trying to make up for the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the SREF usually reliable? I'm not super familiar with its success rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the SREF usually reliable? I'm not super familiar with its success rate Within about 36 hours of the event it does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Kind of wild that the 850mb is all the way back in Alabama at 7PM tonight shown here on the GFS...just shows how continuous the moisture feed will be out of the southeast throughout the day Low level winds generally don't get to enhancement level speeds until tonight when they will be out of the East then backing to NE. The strong forcing and deep moisture will easily push the fun past the blue ridge. However, initially just the location of the Escarpment will be in a better position relative to the storm to be in the better snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just virga here. Temps are cold though sitting at 23 degrees. I am afraid being close to the NC/TN boarder are really going to cut down on my totals with this storm. I still like 4-8 inches around here. Hope this is historical for many areas though. Also the wind has really picked up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1/2 inch already temp is 28 even 441 is already covered. Flakes are still small but rate it moderate. This will be one we remember fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think places like highlands will come in with 16-18" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1/2 inch already temp is 28 even 441 is already covered. Flakes are still small but rate it moderate. This will be one we remember fellas. Thermal profiles..location of snow growth region, layer of best omega suggest that outside of any convective elements-small snow flakes will likely rule through this event. EDIT: Snow started at 7:50. Jackson County under a state of emergency as of 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From Blacksburg AFD: THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM IS COMING TOGETHER IN CLASSIC FORM.MAPS...CHARTS...RULES OF THUMB...INDIAN LORE ALL POINT TO THESAME CONCLUSION. THE RING AROUND THE MOON...THE RUSTLING OAKLEAVES...YOUR GRANDMAS ACHING KNEE IN ADDITION TO THE COMPUTERMODELS WHICH THE METEOROLOGISTS AND WEATHER FANATICS STARE ATENDLESSLY...ALL SCREAM LOOK-OUT. IF YOU CHOOSE TO IGNORE THESENSIBLE CLUES YOU ARE JUST NOT LISTENING. LOCAL FOLKS WILL TELLYOU THIS IS WHERE OUR TRUE WINTER STORMS COME FROM...WISDOM AT ITSBEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UNCA cancelled day classes so I have no schhol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 one thing I can tell you looking at RADAR alone... this thing better go negative tilt soon, the moisture back in GA and AL isn't looking as good as it was progged you can throw the rap out, RADAR trumps everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They're saying on the main board that it looks like the track will be east of the Euro. Just wish casting or is that what you guys see as well? It sure doesn't seem to be moving northeast yet, so I'm not feeling good about the high totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 one thing I can tell you looking at RADAR alone... this thing better go negative tilt soon, the moisture back in GA and AL isn't looking as good as it was progged you can throw the rap out, RADAR trumps everything Yeah, I'm getting really nervous :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 one thing I can tell you looking at RADAR alone... this thing better go negative tilt soon, the moisture back in GA and AL isn't looking as good as it was progged you can throw the rap out, RADAR trumps everything Once it phases and goes negative tilt the radar back in AL/GA will light up like a Christmas tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, I'm getting really nervous :\ Yea me too.. not liking the RADAR trends at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yea me too.. not liking the RADAR trends at all.. Same here when I was looking at the radar I thought a lot of precip seemed too Far East for the higher totals originally projected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 one thing I can tell you looking at RADAR alone... this thing better go negative tilt soon, the moisture back in GA and AL isn't looking as good as it was progged you can throw the rap out, RADAR trumps everything I was worried about the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still no real snow to speak of in Weaverville! Now I feel like the kid at Christmas who has opened a bunch of gifts & is still waiting on that bike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow is ripping pretty good hear. Within a matter of 15 minutes the vehicles are covered and drive is turning white. Temp has dropped to 22 degrees also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep Folks, appears to be going east. Almost no redevelopment west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow is ripping pretty good hear. Within a matter of 15 minutes the vehicles are covered and drive is turning white. Temp has dropped to 22 degrees also. Send it this way 85!.....I'm off to help the wife with her horse duties. See you guys in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at the HRRR it shows very light precip here for most of us through the period... heavier returns redevelop but stay in the upstate http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_jet:&runTime=2014021211&plotName=cref15min_sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still no real snow to speak of in Weaverville! Now I feel like the kid at Christmas who has opened a bunch of gifts & is still waiting on that bike! I actually got a picture of a bike for Christmas one year. My dad said he would get it when the weather warmed up. It's certainly cold enough here. It's 16.4 with a stiff breeze. Brrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar is starting to look better... all of that moisture is shifting north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Folks calm down. This system is still in its infant stages! Point is, even if it moves a little more east, the track of the 500 and 850 lows don't change much at all. The upper level energy is way back in Alabama so we have much to go through yet. Once that low comes in later, radar will explode with heavy precip. No changes to any forecast at this time. We have at least 24 hours left! Too early to be cliff jumping. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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