jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm a bit worried about the RAP...seems to keep decreasing returns. But based on everything else I've seen, there's not much reason to doubt this storm.Edit: Nevermind...RAP's heaviest precip seems to come a bit later. Still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ya wow at the NAM. Again another step towards the EURO. The NAM flat out hammers the mountains and foothills. Just wow this is going to be epic I do believe.what's qpf on nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 what's qpf on nam? It's looking like about 1.25 inches. Final maps aren't in yet though. Clown maps look awesome with around a foot for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's looking like about 1.25 inches. Final maps aren't in yet though. Clown maps look awesome with around a foot for the mountains. Yep was just going to say. I mean just crushes the foothills and the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking like a general agreement taking place now. QPF looks pretty similar now from the Euro, NAM, Canadian, SREF, and for the most part the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the h5 energy closes off over the southern apps as the euro indicated snow will fall at 2-3in/hr during the biggest part of the storm thunder will also be possible. I'm weenieing out a little bit, but this is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wish GSP was quicker with their updates...I told myself at 2:30 I was just going to stay up for the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the h5 energy closes off over the southern apps as the euro indicated snow will fall at 2-3in/hr during the biggest part of the storm thunder will also be possible. I'm weenieing out a little bit, but this is epic. Lol I know man. Been waiting g three long years for a good synoptic snowstorm. Man oh man are we going to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you want to get some sleep, don't look at the HIRES NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Woke up in full weenie mode, the Euro shows 15 inches here. Is this really happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good morning my Mnt & Foothill friends. It was a rough night of sleep for me. (worse than a child at Christmas!) Glad to see Brandon made the trip ok. Well I feel like I am at Mission Control & all Systems are go. We have a good group placed for a array of obs. The only thing I am worried about is Joe & his dwindling supplies.....ha! Strap on your boots (literally) fellas because it's going to be a wild ride. On a serious note my thoughts & prayers do turn toward everyone in the SE and that they are brought thru this storm safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You don't see a GSP disco like this every day!: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 300 AM...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO TAKESHAPE...WITH SHARPENING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PLAINLY SEEN ONWATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVR ERN TX...AND BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATUREDEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF STATES ON IR. MEANWHILE...A 1035 MB SFCHIGH WAS ANALYZED OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WITH STRENGTHENING WEDGEACRS THE CAROLINAS TO ERN GA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP SHIELDFILLING IN AND INTENSIFYING ACRS MUCH OF THE GULF COASTREGION...EXTENDING N TO THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY AND EAST INTO THEMIDLANDS. CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING IS SUPPLYING PLENTY OF COLD DRYAIR ACRS THE CWFA. AND THE 06Z GSO/FFC SNDGS ARE IN LINE WITH THEMODEL PROFILES IN THE REGION. SO EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITHPREVIOUS THINKING...AND THE FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS NOTCHANGED MUCH.EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATEMORNING...STARTING BEFORE DAYBREAK ACRS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THECWFA. AS THE UPR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TODAY...STRONG ISENT LIFT ANDUPR DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HEAVY PRECIP. USING THE TOP-DOWNAPPROACH WITH THE NAM/GFS...STILL EXPECT MOD-HVY SNOW ACRS MOST OFTHE AREA...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM I-85 SOUTH. ASLIVER OF PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACRS ELBERT TOGREENWOOD TODAY...AS A WARM NOSE PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTH.GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM...EXPECT THE STRONGESTQ-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO CROSS RIGHT OVER THE CWFA THISEVENING...WITH THE 850 MB LOW ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS TRACKSHUD SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES IN A SW-NE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NWOF I-85 TO THE BLUE RIDGE...EXTENDING TO THE NW NC PIEDMONT. TOTALSWILL PROBABLY BE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS. THIS TRACK MAY ALSO RESULTIN SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) FOR THUNDERSNOW.STILL NOT SEEING ENUF CHC TO ADD TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AT THESFC...LOW PRES SHUD START TO TAKE SHAPE INVOF THE N-CENTRAL GULF BY18Z...THEN GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND LIFT NE ACRS NRN FL/SRN GA THISEVENING. THIS SHUD CAUSE NE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 MPH WITHGUSTS TO 25 MPH RANGE. POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THECOMBINATION OF WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW (AND ICE IN THE SE FRINGECOUNTIES).TONIGHT...THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THECWFA...BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ACRS MOST OF THEAREA THRU THE OVERNIGHT...AS A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PIVOT THRU THEAREA. THICKNESSES WILL DROP UNDER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR LOW...SOMOST AREAS SHUD SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW. THE FCST STORM TOTAL SNOWAND ICE HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS. GENERALLY GOINGWITH 8-10"+ NORTH AND WEST OF I-85...5-8" JUST SOUTH OF I-85 WHERESLEET/FZRA WILL MIX IN AT TIMES...AND GENERALLY 2-4" FROM ELBERT TOUNION NC...WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE FZRA/SLEET. ICE ACCUMS OF0.25-0.5" EXPECTED IN THOSE COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 0.75"+ POSSIBLE INSRN ELBERT TO SRN GREENWOOD. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTEDNEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...ROADS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TOIMPASSIBLE BY THIS EVENING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH POWER OUTAGESMOST WIDESPREAD PROBABLY IN THE ICE ZONES IN THE SOUTH. THE WINTERSTORM WARNING SEGMENTS LOOK GOOD...SO NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINESARE ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am always nervous until it really snows. Can someone make me feel better about that gap in the radar that seems to be opening up in Georgia. That reminds me of multiple storms in the 90's and 00's where the precip just split and dryslotted us despite a forecast otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sref now has franklin at 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Moderate snow here already. This is earlier than models forecast. Should be bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Amen Jason! I feel the same way. In the back of my mind, over the past few days, I have been preparing for rain.. I know, sounds stupid. But every being around and tracking model after for years... Well, I just feel better when the damn radar is booming! Good luck all.. I am always nervous until it really snows. Can someone make me feel better about that gap in the radar that seems to be opening up in Georgia. That reminds me of multiple storms in the 90's and 00's where the precip just split and dryslotted us despite a forecast otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Amen Jason! I feel the same way. In the back of my mind, over the past few days, I have been preparing for rain.. I know, sounds stupid. But every being around and tracking model after for years... Well, I just feel better when the damn radar is booming! Good luck all.. I would have hate to put a week into nothing..... but like Franklin notes, it really wasn't modeled to start quite yet. Good luck to you also Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, I was really hoping I wouldn't have classes (a noon and a 2) but doesn't look like it will make it to Boone quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am always nervous until it really snows. Can someone make me feel better about that gap in the radar that seems to be opening up in Georgia. That reminds me of multiple storms in the 90's and 00's where the precip just split and dryslotted us despite a forecast otherwise. I always feels the same way, until it starts to snow I'm always nervous. Thanks for making me worry about that gap in Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel a lock. But For me, it is like wearing the wrong hat to a ball game.. Lets just say, I got the right hat on today! I would have hate to put a week into nothing..... but like Franklin notes, it really wasn't modeled to start quite yet. Good luck to you also Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF 3z now averaging 15" for KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel a lock. But For me, it is like wearing the wrong hat to a ball game.. Lets just say, I got the right hat on today! I'm just paranoid. I'm sure that it is performing as it should be. I need to find a lucky hat ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stay the course fellas. All will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lol. I know the hat analogy might sound weird to some.. But I take my weather serious, just like I take my sports teams! Go find ya one I'm just paranoid. I'm sure that it is performing as it should be. I need to find a lucky hat ! Nice. That is what I told tracker last night on twitter after the 00 suite (not the euro though) came out! Stay the course fellas. All will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm just paranoid. I'm sure that it is performing as it should be. I need to find a lucky hat ! Stay the course fellas. All will be ok. Yep... I am just worn out and it's not even snowed yet !!! You guys are right. I was hoping to avoid work, but no snow means work as usual until someone determines that it is dangerous enough to get out and drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For those who asked, local is tweeting away this am, so I sent him a tweet to stop by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend if they get crushed with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend if they get crushed with ice. Hey Brandon! If you get 16 inches, you probably won't care if you make it back to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol the euro is insane. i made it to hickory for this one. if we really get 16 inches of snow that will be biggest snow of my life. the only reason i was dumb enough to make the drive home last night was thinking this could be something extremely rare. hopefully it is. i just i hope i can get back to raleigh this weekend. Brandon, glad you made it ok. I don't think you will have any issues getting back at least by Sunday. Would love to get your thoughts on how things are unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 For those who asked, local is tweeting away this am, so I sent him a tweet to stop by. We're has he been? He should stop by quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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