Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, it looks like it gives AVL right around an inch of QPF. A big improvement. Yes it does. Somewhere between 1 and 1.25. Won't know exactly until the extracted data comes out here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Better run for the NAM not great but better for sure. How often do those GSP maps come out, and when they do would someone post them here? Some posters believe that the models are underplaying the moisture which would be incredible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP just updated totals. Buncome has 6-10 and Henderson 8-12. Could still be a little conservative based on today's trends, but I think it's definitely a reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 For all the board vet's. Don thank you for posting this. Phil is 100% correct and HT people need to listen when you post because you know your stuff man. I know a lot on here really appreciate you in this thread! The Euro has been Rock solid for SEVERAL days know not just one or two runs. Cannot bet against it. Sorry it's actually 12.4 inches. Btw, WxSouth is stressing that all models are underestimating the storm via RAP and water vapor. He think we'll get between 1.5 to 2.0 QPF between Asheville and Raleigh. Again look at this map today. For the past several days there has been very little variance on QPF and snowfall just rock steady with this system. I mean look at the Euros score so far with this system a 97/100 really that is scary accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GSP just updated totals. Buncome has 6-10 and Henderson 8-12. Could still be a little conservative based on today's trends, but I think it's definitely a reasonable forecast. Good for them. They are probably basing that on the Euro and new NAM coming the Euros way. Listen we are going to get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you guys give me a link to the GSP snowfall map, I cant seem to find it now. Definitely the Euro has been most consistent, take a look at the radar at Texas look at the cloud tops! . Its coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The total for AVL from the NAM was 1.05 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you guys give me a link to the GSP snowfall map, I cant seem to find it now. Definitely the Euro has been most consistent, take a look at the radar at Texas look at the cloud tops! . Its coming.... http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z rgem lays down the hammer! Mtn plaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z rgem lays down the hammer! Mtn plaster! Any maps? It's not updating on mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any maps? It's not updating on mine... It's a bomb. Mountains and foothills are obliterated. http://imgur.com/lvAYpj5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png That's a nice thing to wake up to from a nap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you guys give me a link to the GSP snowfall map, I cant seem to find it now. Definitely the Euro has been most consistent, take a look at the radar at Texas look at the cloud tops! . Its coming.... http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow. It does track Further west, but great over this way.. It's a bomb. Mountains and foothills are obliterated. http://imgur.com/lvAYpj5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow. It does track Further west, but great over this way.. What's up with the minimum over the central mountains, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I only got to 42 but the rgem puts down about 14-15 inches in the southern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I only got to 42 but the rgem puts down about 14-15 inches in the southern mtns. You end up with around 15 inches, then there's a break around Buncombe that gets 8-10, then it ramps back up again towards Boone to 14'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z GFS is looking like a major improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS continues to cave towards the Euro. Snow totals are up again with a better track but I still do not think it is done correcting towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its funny how we all believe the Euro is correct, you go to the normal board they are convinced it is at least 50 miles too west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its funny how we all believe the Euro is correct, you go to the normal board they are convinced it is at least 50 miles too west Becsaue they don't want the sleet. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its funny how we all believe the Euro is correct, you go to the normal board they are convinced it is at least 50 miles too west Every model today has caved to a Euro track. The RGEM is even further west than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its funny how we all believe the Euro is correct, you go to the normal board they are convinced it is at least 50 miles too west The euro has great support from it's ensembles, but the euro and it's ensembles are farther west than the US models, the ggem and rgem seem to like a slightly farther west track as well. It's gonna be an interesting day tomorrow to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Becsaue they don't want the sleet. It's that simple. Lol exactly. They want the best model solution for them. Hey I don't blame them but you just cannot go against the Euro right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol exactly. They want the best model solution for them. Hey I don't blame them but you just cannot go against the Euro right know. It has owned this storm. Plus the amazing agreement it's ensembles have with it. Can't beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Every model today has caved to a Euro track. The RGEM is even further west than the Euro. The Euro is the king with this storm. I still cannot believe the verification score so far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its funny how we all believe the Euro is correct, you go to the normal board they are convinced it is at least 50 miles too west I think Triadwx is correct - it's wishcasting. There's absolutely no reason to believe that it will trend east at this point. Everything is trending towards the Euro, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 It has owned this storm. Plus the amazing agreement it's ensembles have with it. Can't beat it. Yep when you have the Euro OP and its ensembles hand and hand its over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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