WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ah sorry, im friends with him on facebook. He is going with a foot or more now from Shelby to hickory That's alright What's his thinking for rest of WNC? I'm going to assume 8-12 inches for AVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's alright What's his thinking for rest of WNC? I'm going to assume 8-12 inches for AVL? Yea that sounds about right. Mt Mitchell got 6 inches yesterday I bet they end up over 20 for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWS in College Park MD. thinking on the deformation zone will go over n ga wnc to sw va. snowrates could b 1-3 inches an hour for a couple of hours, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably not a big deal but GSP has been decreasing WNC totals all day down to 5" in Asheville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rgem is 9-12 mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably not a big deal but GSP has been decreasing WNC totals all day down to 5" in Asheville I feel like these totals aren't a true reflection of GSP predictions. Precipitation adjustments will mainly happen at the afternoon discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rgem is 9-12 mtns What did the RGEM show at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also to note, a disco was not put out for the 11:30 am snowfall map update. I agree with your thinking on this. I feel like these totals aren't a true reflection of GSP predictions. Precipitation adjustments will mainly happen at the afternoon discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also to note, a disco was not put out for the 11:30 am snowfall map update. I agree with your thinking on this. I wonder if the map is produced by some averaging of the models, and thus the new GFS and NAM runs skewed amounts down? I'm not sure how the map is determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z GEFS still looks very good for the mountains and remains much wetter than the GFS. I think the GFS and NAM are out to lunch with this one. Edit: The 12z GEFS has been nearly identical the last three runs and gives Asheville nearly an inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great question that I do not have an answer for. Based on the new map, I would tend to agree with you... I wonder if the map is produced by some averaging of the models, and thus the new GFS and NAM runs skewed amounts down? I'm not sure how the map is determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great question that I do not have an answer for. Based on the new map, I would tend to agree with you... FWIW, GSP did add a short discussion at 11:35. I'm still not convinced that this map is a direct result of met forecasts and not just some sort of weighted model average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably not a big deal but GSP has been decreasing WNC totals all day down to 5" in Asheville can't quite see gsp thinking on only 5 inches when most data says this may be a storm to remember and for the record books. somethings up when news 13 starts showing other major storms and dates and says this one may be right up there with those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro coming out now. Let us see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For all the board vet's. This... this is looking more and more like a KU snowstorm. Euro ensembles are in very good agreement on this outcome now. I'm going to get on my high horse for a brief moment, but I think the GFS and NAM are doing a horrible job with this event (wednesday and beyond). When I look at models and try to get an assessment of what is going to happen, the first thing I do is look at the ECMWF and its ensembles. When the ECMWF is showing an overamplified solution relative to the rest of the guidance, I stand back and try to understand if its catching on to something the other models are missing or if its an outlier that should be thrown out. The easiest way to figure this is out is to look at the its ensemble mean. Guess what, the ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty much exactly what the deterministic solution is. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is superior to the GFS Ensembles because it contains 50 members and does a more realistic job of depicting the probability PDF of any one particular solution, preventing it from being under dispersive like the GFS ensembles are in most cases. So when there is strong agreement within 72 hours from the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensembles, I place that in the highest regard over all other guidance. Thats what we are seeing currently. The GFS and NAM are completely on the edge of the ECMWF ensemble PDF and therefore should both be considered outliers in this case. Its a little startling to see this must dispersion between the model guidance within 72 hours, but for tricky phasing cases like this, its the norm. While taking a mean might sound like the best course of action, in reality when there is this much spread, you are taking a good forecast and merging with a bad forecast to create a mediocre forecast. I think it would be a better idea to place greater emphasis on the ECMWF solution given the strong support it has by its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it is going a little south and east. Correction: Actually maybe it is a little more inland, just looks colder for everyone else. Maybe it will make the folks in Raleigh stop complaining.... Heavy snow here in WNC until Thursday when the system starts to pull out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it is going a little south and east. Correction: Actually maybe it is a little more inland, just looks colder for everyone else. Maybe it will make the folks in Raleigh stop complaining.... Heavy snow here in WNC until Thursday when the system starts to pull out Do you have access? Can you post maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is like Day 4 of Euro having 10+ inches of snow for Asheville. 12.9 inches at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is like Day 4 of Euro having 10+ inches of snow for Asheville. 12.9 inches at the airport. Would you mind posting the snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would you mind posting the snowfall map? Sorry it's actually 12.4 inches. Btw, WxSouth is stressing that all models are underestimating the storm via RAP and water vapor. He think we'll get between 1.5 to 2.0 QPF between Asheville and Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know it's kinda personal IMBY question. But when do you guys think precip will begin falling and sticking here? The timing has been different on all the models. I have a test at UNCA in the morning and don't want to get stuck driving down Old Fort mountain. I know what happened last time there was heavy snow people were stuck on top of the mountain for a day or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know it's kinda personal IMBY question. But when do you guys think precip will begin falling and sticking here? The timing has been different on all the models. I have a test at UNCA in the morning and don't want to get stuck driving down Old Fort mountain. I know what happened last time there was heavy snow people were stuck on top of the mountain for a day or more. That's hard to say...I would guess very early afternoon. I would be surprised if UNCA didn't cancel all classes though. I live in Hendersonville and ended up in a ditch trying to get to UNCA today. Roads were a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know it's kinda personal IMBY question. But when do you guys think precip will begin falling and sticking here? The timing has been different on all the models. I have a test at UNCA in the morning and don't want to get stuck driving down Old Fort mountain. I know what happened last time there was heavy snow people were stuck on top of the mountain for a day or more. Right now, I would just stay with the plan until UNCA announce the cancellations. I think afternoon classes, Thursday, and Friday are goner though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RAP and looking at a WV loop def look to be onto a trend here. Look at the differences and the amount of phasing (with the RAP being the most phased) at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RAP and looking at a WV loop def look to be onto a trend here. Look at the differences and the amount of phasing (with the RAP being the most phased) at 12z tomorrow. output_f40dxG.gif I'm not very familiar with vorticity maps. What are the implications of this for WNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm not very familiar with vorticity maps. What are the implications of this for WNC? Took the words right out of my mouth...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Took the words right out of my mouth...... I'm not very familiar with vorticity maps. What are the implications of this for WNC? You see how the energy is further southwest on the RAP, that backs the flow and allows for a better moisture transport. That's the way I understand it with my limited knowledge. And with more phasing that the RAP shows it would lead to a more westward LP track than the NAM or GFS have, probably similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The average SREF is now at 11 inches for Asheville. In addition,one of the plumes gives us 30 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM slowly but surely coming around to the party. At 12Z on Thursday we still have 25-30 DBZ returns over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM slowly but surely coming around to the party. At 12Z on Thursday we still have 25-30 DBZ returns over top of us. Yes, it looks like it gives AVL right around an inch of QPF. A big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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