strongwxnc Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Even some token action around the southern foothills as shown on the 06 gfs... Looking at this mornings GFS run a lot of the mountains could be tromping through the snow on Thanksgiving morning. Wow looks like a day right out from January. Very impressed with the possibilities. Could see several inches of snow per this morning run. I have a feeling we continue to trend better as we get closer. Could be wrong but seems like the GFS is trending better for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Even some token action around the southern foothills as shown on the 06 gfs... Ya may be like a mixed bag around there pints East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Waiting for tomorrows storm up on top...conditions will turn rather extreme tomorrow night..but I will attempt to ride out the storm in my car. Currently..winds are howling outside..very gusty suddenly in the last hour..with very dense fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 36..temps dropping..fog..sprinkles..thinking about snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 36..temps dropping..fog..sprinkles..thinking about snowing? Ya Mike temps have started dropping here also. I think we have reached our high today already. Temp down to 37 here. Looks and feels like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just got home from work & the wind is howling in the French Broad Valley! Totally different world than when I went in around 11:00 AM. It's going to be a interesting couple days in the Mnts! Robert has a great video on his site. Not going to steal his thunder but, he does say of the 2 scenarios in play. We get some white stuff with either one. Hope this is the forebears of a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 9 degrees...30 mph wind..frick it is cold up here! Didnt snow but sort of looks like as there is rather excessive amounts of frost..maybe a little rime.Winds were crazy last night. Not snowing on the Tn line either..very few clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 9 degrees...30 mph wind..frick it is cold up here! Didnt snow but sort of looks like as there is rather excessive amounts of frost..maybe a little rime.Winds were crazy last night. Not snowing on the Tn line either..very few clouds Ya Mike down to 12 degrees here and the snow is flying around. Very dew clouds but with the wind and being so cold figured the moisture is being rung out of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The Smokies are quite white this morning near the ridge tops..note sure if rime or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Morning Gents, You guys are chilly this AM. We got down to a balmy 20° in Weaverville. Mike when are you headed up North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Morning Gents, You guys are chilly this AM. We got down to a balmy 20° in Weaverville. Mike when are you headed up North? I'm already back in Michigan. I'm trying to get a handle on this very complicated weather scenario that is approaching. Lot of different aspects of this storm that are interesting..with weather will vary quite a bit in different parts of the mountains...Blue Ridge..vs SW Mountains vs TN line areas. I think I will just enjoy watching the scenario unfold from afar rather than try to pin down a forecast. FYI..here are a few pics from the weekend trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Great pics! The micro climates in the Southern Apps. never cease to amaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Nice Mike. As you have said this looks like a very complicated forecast for the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 542 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...ICY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS... .ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM A GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO VERY COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL PERMIT SURFACES TO BECOME COLD AND SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT FALLS. ACCUMULATING ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-052-053-062>064-501>506-508-510-SCZ001>003- 251900- /O.COR.KGSP.ZR.Y.0004.131126T0200Z-131126T1400Z/ RABUN-AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...FRANKLIN...BREVARD 542 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN CAROLINA AND GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET DEVELOPING DURING MID TO LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...TRACE AMOUNTS UP A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN MOST AREAS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...RECENT COLD WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DRIVING COULD BECOME TREACHEROUS IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 With the recent cold shot the ground should be prime for any freezing. We had a low this morning of 11 degrees. Pretty amazing considering it is only November. Also the snow aspect of this storm looks impressive. I think we see a prolonged period of snow and I think the models are under doing the amounts especially in the upslope regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks like the latest GFS puts down a few hours of snow before we go over to freezing rain. If that would be the case then there are going to be some major travel issues heading into tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Based on NWS Freezing Rain Advisory....Mitchell County NC schools on a 3-hour delay for Tuesday **UPDATE** ICE STORM WARNING for Avery, Mitchell, Yancey, Burke Mtns, McDowell Mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Down to 29 up top already...this is colder than expected..means more ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Well not like I expected to start out but we have freezing rain and sleet sitting at 31 degrees. Cars are encased in ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 A winter storm watch has been issued for over on the TN side right along the NC/TN boarder counties. I suspect our side will not be to far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC451 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...ICY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA ANDGEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS....PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING ACROSS THEWESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD AIR NEAR THESURFACE WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...PRIMARILY ALONG ANDEAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR IN THE THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG ANDNORTH OF I-85 IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. ACCUMULATING ICE ISMOST LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA...WHEREDAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO CHANGE TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHEASTOF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING STRONGNORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA...ALLOWINGRAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN SNOW ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OFWINTRY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THECOUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE.NCZ048-052-261700-/O.CON.KGSP.ZR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-131126T1400Z//O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0007.131127T0500Z-131128T0500Z/MADISON-HAYWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE451 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THISMORNING......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE.* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CHANGE BRIEFLY BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.* VISIBILITY...OCCASIONAL 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN HEAVY OR BLOWING SNOW.* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ON ROADS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD- LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 SWAIN-GRAHAM- ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE.* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE BRIEFLY TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.* VISIBILITY...OCCASIONAL 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN HEAVY OR BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE451 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN WILL CHANGE BRIEFLY BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.* VISIBILITY...OCCASIONAL 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN HEAVY OR BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Latest GFS run coming in with more moisture on the Backside and then a very nice upslope event. Going to be an exciting 48 hours from here on out. I think we could be seeing some isolated totals of upwards of a foot in some of the most favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Latest GFS run coming in with more moisture on the Backside and then a very nice upslope event. Going to be an exciting 48 hours from here on out. I think we could be seeing some isolated totals of upwards of a foot in some of the most favored areas. It's almost nowcast time but, I sure am liking the trends 85. You are looking at a nice November Snow & probably a white Thanksgiving! I am even liking our chances for a inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 A toasty 39 up top now-there was some significant icing earlier but has since melted with almost an inch of rain has fallen. Looking at local observations-temps look really marginal for icing so I suspect most areas pretty much have had little or no ice at all or maybe just on the trees. Will look at the 12Z models for the back end of the event to figure out how much system snow to fall. From previous run-it shows a very sharp vertical gradient in temperature..meaning that it might change to snow at all elevations at almost the same time. The upslope component might be limited except right along the TN line as vertical motions fields didn't really suggest any embedded shortwaves? (EDIT: LeConte picked up 2" of snow last night before changing to rain. http://www.highonleconte.com/1/post/2013/11/good-bye-from-the-2013-crew.html ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 It's almost nowcast time but, I sure am liking the trends 85. You are looking at a nice November Snow & probably a white Thanksgiving! I am even liking our chances for a inch or two. Ya Don pretty excited about our chances of getting a white Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Heavy Snow and Strong Winds across the NC High Country Tuesday Night and Wednesday This map below will change in time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Some sleeting mixing in with the rain at times during heavier showers..temps down a bit on the mtn. Quick look at the 12Z NAM suggests a rather rotten warm nose present late tonight through 8 AM tomorrow as cold air advection comes in from below suggesting the possibility of a period of potential significant ice/sleet prior to a change over to snow over various elevations. If this occurs..there would be little snow outside of the upslope snow event. See attached for 9Z tomorrow morning...warm nose between 700 and 800 mb..enough to melt any snowflakes from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Someone in the Potential Thanksgiving Event thread posted the 12Z 48-hr loop WRF-NMM model...I like the upslope detail that it shows for the NW NC border counties...nwfs up to hour 40 or so **Update** 12Z GFS showing nwfs thru 7am Thanksgiving morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.