HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Tracker the graph you posted I am not sure how to read it or what I am looking at. Can you educate me on it. Sure. The y-axis of the graph are each of the 50 runs of the Euro model. Starting at "e" and going down to 50. Each column represents the forecast time period, and each row represents one member of the ensemble. So reading it, you can see a lot of pink colors all at the 12Z Thursday time slot (+72 hours). Scanning from top to bottom at the Thursday time period, you get a mix of different shades of pink, a few blues, and a few purples. So some members are going low on the snowfall amounts, some are going very high (over 20"), and 90% of them are in the pink which is 10-14" of snow. The bottom graph spells it out a little more clearly, with the blue bars being the operational run of the Euro, and the green bars being the mean (average) of all the 50 members of the ensemble. What it says, basically, is that the operational Euro was right on track and the forecast holds for the mountain areas. 8-12" on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always think back to the snow drought you had to endure Jason Good luck good sir. 3 inches today... a lucky inch tomorrow... 8 inches on your lower end. ... 12 inches in 3 days. I would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro control has the surface low just east of Raleigh. Farther west than the op. Do we get mixing issues or is it a phased bomb and drag cold down the back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro control has the surface low just east of Raleigh. Farther west than the op. Here you go. It's in a PERFECT position for heavy snow in the mountains. Now, if we can only get the darn American models to move a little west too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do we get mixing issues or is it a phased bomb and drag cold down the back? No mixing issues for mountain areas. Should be all snow. The hard part of the forecast are the snow ratios. I am currently using 8:1 based on climatology on these types of systems, proximity to the 850 zero line, and the moisture source region (GoM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here you go. It's in a PERFECT position for heavy snow in the mountains. Now, if we can only get the darn American models to move a little west too... That's definitely west of the 0z control run as well. It was centered over the OBX. I expect 0z to hold serve or possible go a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No mixing issues for mountain areas. Should be all snow. The hard part of the forecast are the snow ratios. I am currently using 8:1 based on climatology on these types of systems, proximity to the 850 zero line, and the moisture source region (GoM). Yes, I definitely agree with the slightly lower ratio, I believe Dec. 09 was near 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always think back to the snow drought you had to endure Jason Good luck good sir. Snow droughts seem to follow me around Mark. I like these storms when almost the whole board has a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sure. The y-axis of the graph are each of the 50 runs of the Euro model. Starting at "e" and going down to 50. Each column represents the forecast time period, and each row represents one member of the ensemble. So reading it, you can see a lot of pink colors all at the 12Z Thursday time slot (+72 hours). Scanning from top to bottom at the Thursday time period, you get a mix of different shades of pink, a few blues, and a few purples. So some members are going low on the snowfall amounts, some are going very high (over 20"), and 90% of them are in the pink which is 10-14" of snow. The bottom graph spells it out a little more clearly, with the blue bars being the operational run of the Euro, and the green bars being the mean (average) of all the 50 members of the ensemble. What it says, basically, is that the operational Euro was right on track and the forecast holds for the mountain areas. 8-12" on average. Thanks Tracker! That really brings it all together for me. I have been seeing these all day and was like what the heck am I looking at. Again thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here you go. It's in a PERFECT position for heavy snow in the mountains. Now, if we can only get the darn American models to move a little west too...last nights nam run looked like that. Would like to see the surface low run up 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks Tracker! That really brings it all together for me. I have been seeing these all day and was like what the heck am I looking at. Again thank you for the explanation. No problem. Glad it helped. It's a very unique and fun way to view all the ensembles at once. Credit to Ryan Maue who puts those together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 last nights nam run looked like that. Would like to see the surface low run up 95. 93'ish track. Obviously not a triple phaser, but still a good way to get the high QPF back to us with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Im going with 8-12 for the mtns with 16 Lolli! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I tell ya what I am stoked as can be about this event. Already 3 inches of snow on the ground temps dropping into the 20s already and hopefully we can hold this snow until the big one starts. That would pretty much put snow accumulation instantly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 93'ish track. Obviously not a triple phaser, but still a good way to get the high QPF back to us with that track.yeah the 18z and 0z nam were a march 93 light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Told my sister at WCU in Cullowhee 8-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's really excited to finally have a large event for all of us here in the foothills and mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No mixing issues for mountain areas. Should be all snow. The hard part of the forecast are the snow ratios. I am currently using 8:1 based on climatology on these types of systems, proximity to the 850 zero line, and the moisture source region (GoM). I'm thinking 10 to 12 to 1 for my elevation. I won't bother to calcuate just how much snow that converts to! Still thinking Euro Ensembles was/is the way to go with this. I like the notion that the snow tomorrow is little futher North than depicted giving maybe a couple bonus inches for the mtns before the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 is there a chance that the first round tomorrow comes a little more north as past events have even though they were modeled to stay south of the nc mtns. seems these little snowstorms tend to trend north as the event is unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Told my sister at WCU in Cullowhee 8-14" Sounds like a good call.....btw that is a scary looking avatar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I could not agree more with your statement!! It's really excited to finally have a large event for all of us here in the foothills and mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A lot of fuel burnt chasing this one! Is anyone getting wrung out like I am? I normally live for the chase but after such a long drought I am still on pins & needles. Here's hoping all our wishes come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A lot of fuel burnt chasing this one! Is anyone getting wrung out like I am? I normally live for the chase but after such a long drought I am still on pins & needles. Here's hoping all our wishes come true. I am already worn out too Don haha. I feel like my dreams are going to be in 3 hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A lot of fuel burnt chasing this one! Is anyone getting wrung out like I am? I normally live for the chase but after such a long drought I am still on pins & needles. Here's hoping all our wishes come true. I havent watched model runs and play by plays like this since the Christmas storm in 2010. I dont want my heart broken thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I like the looks of Roberts wxsouth accumulation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM wasn't a perfect run, but it's good enough for big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM wasn't a perfect run, but it's good enough for big snow. Yea, but that setup looked a little strange. I'm not sure I trust that run. That said, it still would likely put the mountains in that 6-10 range (maybe 4-8 with conservative ratios). As was pointed out to me earlier, we can't take individual runs at face value. I like the looks of Roberts wxsouth accumulation map. Can you post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM wasn't a perfect run, but it's good enough for big snow. Ya I am riding the Euro. I think it has done the best so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ya I am riding the Euro. I think it has done the best so far. Me too. I was at 6-8 inches earlier today, but I think 6-10 inches is a safer forecast and that might still be underestimated too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glad I am not the only one that feels like this.. A lot of fuel burnt chasing this one! Is anyone getting wrung out like I am? I normally live for the chase but after such a long drought I am still on pins & needles. Here's hoping all our wishes come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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