ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A couple more trends guys and we will all be digging out. This should be party time for this thread, heck we are most likely all going to get at least 3+ inches of snow. That hasn't happened in 3 years. I see a lot of doom and gloom about a certain model but it still gives us measurable snowfall. It feels like some of you are hoping for a trend away and while I can see you trying to be realistic, the gfs typically will trend northwest and I can't see that hurting our snowfall whatsoever. I'm definitely not hoping for a trend away. I believe that we have burned so many times in the last 3 years or not even had an opportunity at all, I think people have a hard time believing that we might actually see real snow again. I for certain am hoping for a snow hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Pardon the length but a great read by someone who knows weather! DAYS 1 TO 3......SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERNATLANTIC STATES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHAND EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATESAND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTWARD UNITED STATES SHOULDSET THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN. SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO CONTRIBUTE TOTHIS COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION WITH ELEMENTS THAT CURRENTLYEXHIBITING FAIRLY LARGE VARIABILITY EVEN WITHIN THE MORNINGFORECAST CYCLE. A FIRST SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE US ISRELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 AND WILL BRINGSNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THELOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW ISEXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS MOISTURE ISINCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...WHILE A MIXED BAG OFPRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A BAND OF FREEZINGRAIN/SLEET FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTONORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH ALOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ICING GREATER THAN .25INCHES FROM EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA/NORTHCENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THEAREA OF PRECIPITATION...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARDACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITHA SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN GEORGIA/NW SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OFSOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SEPARATESHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD TOWARD THEEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THISSYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ON DAY 3. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THEPLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING MOST FROZENPRECIPITATION AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE TAKING IT OUT TO SEAWHILE OTHERS BRING IT UP ALONG THE EAST COAST...SOME KEEPING ITOFFSHORE AND OTHERS TAKING A MORE COASTAL TRACK. EACH OF THESEDISPARATE SOLUTIONS MEAN DIFFERING THINGS AS TO WHEREPRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND WHAT FORM IT WILL FALL AS. FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUSTAFTER DAY 3 ENDS.WITH THAT IN MIND...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A BUILDING CONSENSUSTHAT A SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THESOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHEAST ON DAY 3. HIGHPRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BENEATH ANUPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SNOW IS EXPECTEDTO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM EXTREME NORTHERN GEORGIAACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLYCENTRAL VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THENORTHWARD SPREAD IS UNCERTAIN. A LOW CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 4INCHES OF SNOW IS FOUND WITHIN THIS REGION WITH A MODERATE CHANCEALONG AND NEAR THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO SWVIRGINIA. PERHAPS A GREATER THREAT THAN THE SNOW IS THE CHANCESFOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERNGEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.A BLEND FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET AND THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLEMEANS SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT ICING GREATER THAN .25 INCHES ACROSSTHESE AREAS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR TRAVEL...TREES...AND POWER.RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE SUPPRESSED THIS SYSTEM ANDWHILE THE 06Z RUN BROUGHT THE SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST COAST...BEFORETHE 12Z RUN KEPT A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF KEPT A MORECOASTAL THAN OFFSHORE LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW AND ICE COULDBE FARTHER INLAND WHILE THE 12Z RUN AND UKMET BOTH FAVORED A TRACKSLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TOREPRESENT A RELATIVELY GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT WITH THE 12ZECMWF APPEARING RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ITS MEAN.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ONDAY 1.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nice total for Asheville from the 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I want the 18z nam period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 18z GEFS cracks .75 inches for Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No worries guys.. Karen Wynne is blinking her eyes and sounding the siren. And And we might have a good snow ah yah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Karen Wynn(WLOS) and Chris Justus(WYFF) both talking about the threat of heavier snow shifting south from the mtns. We may not get any snow at all, but everything that I see shows an increase in our possibilities.... not a decreasing threat. Maybe I misunderstood what they were trying to say. Oh well, waiting mode continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Karen Wynn(WLOS) and Chris Justus(WYFF) both talking about the threat of heavier snow shifting south from the mtns. We may not get any snow at all, but everything that I see shows an increase in our possibilities.... not a decreasing threat. Maybe I misunderstood what they were trying to say. Oh well, waiting mode continues. I don't think Chris was talking about the threat shifting South. He's been on board with the highest accumulations in WNC all along. WLOS is talking about it shifting South however but I don't put much stock in their forecast. I've seen a rock predict the weather better than WLOS can and that was evident on the last storm when everybody seemed to be onto it except WLOS. I feel like they haven't had a meteorologist that gave a damn since Mike Bettes left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris Justus update for the upstate on his Facebook, but he says this will tie in to WNC: "Looking at the trends.....I may need to increase my snow predictions a bit. I'm feeling more confident Wednesday's round two will be a big issue for us. For now I have 2-4 inches with .10-.25 of ice....the snow part could easily double in spots. I'll post a full update tonight when the latest models spill in. Don't go to bed until you have checked back in! -Chris Justus, Meteorologist" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Great read Don! Ya the models have been all over the place. The GFS looked pretty good and obviously the NAM throws about everything for us here in the mountains from heavy snow to mix back to snow. Boy that would be fun. I really like the Euro and its ensembles. I think we could get a quick inch or two with the first wave but that second wave is up in the air. I think we see the heaviest precip trend north though just looking at everything. I am having flash backs from last weeks system when they were not calling for anything at all but flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jason Boyer WLOS ***Winter Weather Update 7PM Sunday***Lots of model inconsistencies, but the trend still holds for snow to begin in WNC sometime late-Monday into Tuesday. Snowfall amounts will generally be 2-4" from this round through Tuesday evening. The real tricky part comes Wednesday into Thursday. Another significant piece of energy is forecast to roll through the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. IF this holds, it will mean another, possibly more significant round of snow for WNC and the Upstate as this will help develop a coastal area of low pressure somewhere either near SC or farther north. There is the potential for another 2-4" for many, if not more IF this happens. Travel will already become difficult by late-afternoon and early-evening across the region on Tuesday. Storm total accumulations by end of day Wednesday could range from 4 to 8" over valley locations in WNC, to as much as 8 to 10"+ for higher elevations. Snow accumulations are also very likely over the Upstate, mostly from I-85 north, where as much as 2 to 6" will be possible. Notice, the range is much greater here due to the change in elevation from areas near and along I-85, to the higher elevations closer to the NC border. This storm may surprise even the most seasoned meteorologists as a lot of variables still have to come together, so don't be surprised if a subtle change in path or intensity means SIGNIFICANT changes to snow totals. Once we get within 12 hours of the storm expect more detailed totals. Until then, I will continue to update with each model cycle which occurs every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jason Boyer WLOS ***Winter Weather Update 7PM Sunday***Lots of model inconsistencies, but the trend still holds for snow to begin in WNC sometime late-Monday into Tuesday. Snowfall amounts will generally be 2-4" from this round through Tuesday evening. The real tricky part comes Wednesday into Thursday. Another significant piece of energy is forecast to roll through the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. IF this holds, it will mean another, possibly more significant round of snow for WNC and the Upstate as this will help develop a coastal area of low pressure somewhere either near SC or farther north. There is the potential for another 2-4" for many, if not more IF this happens. Travel will already become difficult by late-afternoon and early-evening across the region on Tuesday. Storm total accumulations by end of day Wednesday could range from 4 to 8" over valley locations in WNC, to as much as 8 to 10"+ for higher elevations. Snow accumulations are also very likely over the Upstate, mostly from I-85 north, where as much as 2 to 6" will be possible. Notice, the range is much greater here due to the change in elevation from areas near and along I-85, to the higher elevations closer to the NC border. This storm may surprise even the most seasoned meteorologists as a lot of variables still have to come together, so don't be surprised if a subtle change in path or intensity means SIGNIFICANT changes to snow totals. Once we get within 12 hours of the storm expect more detailed totals. Until then, I will continue to update with each model cycle which occurs every 6 hours. Nice to see WLOS on the ball with this upcoming storm. I think last week got a few into trouble with the snow and the schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man look at the KMRX radar light up. Some of you high mountain guys can hopefully enjoy tonights models coming out with a little surprise outside already. If it doesn't dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man look at the KMRX radar light up. Some of you high mountain guys can hopefully enjoy tonights models coming out with a little surprise outside already. If it doesn't dry up. I know we're all skeptical as it's warranted but this has all the makings of a classic wet mountain snow maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man look at the KMRX radar light up. Some of you high mountain guys can hopefully enjoy tonights models coming out with a little surprise outside already. If it doesn't dry up. Ya right know it would be rain here. Temp only at 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know we're all skeptical as it's warranted but this has all the makings of a classic wet mountain snow maker. Skeptical? Yes sir. Count me in on that. 00Z models may do the trick though. Really want to see a good similar solution from all models tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ya right know it would be rain here. Temp only at 36 degrees. It can snow at 36 degrees so long as most of the column above you is below freezing, which I believe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Skeptical? Yes sir. Count me in on that. 00Z models may do the trick though. Really want to see a good similar solution from all models tonight! And I don't blame you one bit. WNC in the last couple of years has always come up a dollar short and day late it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Skeptical? Yes sir. Count me in on that. 00Z models may do the trick though. Really want to see a good similar solution from all models tonight! Ya we are down to were we need to see some model consistency from all models soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 And I don't blame you one bit. WNC in the last couple of years has always come up a dollar short and day late it would seem. The last three years we have not had a storm this size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the track of the low shown on most of the modeling I don't see how the mountains won't do really well. We won't have the mixing issues and we should have have precip. I think NC mtns as a whole should be 6-10" never seen this track or setup not produce big totals for the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 It can snow at 36 degrees so long as most of the column above you is below freezing, which I believe it is. Ok well then it would be nice if the moisture starting working further south but looks like it is lifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok well then it would be nice if the moisture starting working further south but looks like it is lifting north. Yeah went just north and it looks like it is drying up some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z nam is running would like to see an earlier phase like the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 21z SREF coming in and it looks to be wetter. Plumes should increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z nam is running would like to see an earlier phase like the 18z. Go big or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sref mean is pushing 7" here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we will start getting into the snow tomorrow afternoon from the looks of the NAM. Should be a decent hit for the boarder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lots of wind and some sprinkles in Boone currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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