2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

[franklin NCwx]

Don't know but this link has all the tree farms near Boone to choose from:

http://www.themastfarminn.com/choose-and-cut-christmas-tree/

Most likely-the trees farms closer to the TN line would be the most likely to have some snow on the ground Sunday morning.

If you were down in my area this weekend-I probably be willing to part with one of my Balsam Firs........

up in Glenville right now about to get a tree.

[Met1985]

If I can fit one of these guys on the mtn top in the back of my Subaru this weekend..I'll probably return to Michigan with it.

Nice Mike! Ya I am starting to seriously look at some land in the Balsam here in Haywood.

[NCSNOW]

Heading to Boone Friday evening.  App vs. Western on Saturday afternoon/evening and then getting a tree on Sunday.  Anyone have a recommendation on where to get a tree and most likey to have some snow on the ground?

Thanks,

TW

Go cats! We are heading up Sunday afternoon for the tree. Usually go on Black Friday. But Christmas will come quicker after turkey day, so they all want the tree up earlier. I wasn't to thrilled about going up early until I saw the chance to witness some up slope. Now I'm all in.

 

Sparta has a restaurant (Browns) best homemade coconut pie you'll ever put in your mouth.

[POWERSTROKE]

Heading to Boone Friday evening. App vs. Western on Saturday afternoon/evening and then getting a tree on Sunday. Anyone have a recommendation on where to get a tree and most likey to have some snow on the ground?

Thanks,

TW

We go every year toward Boone. Several different places. We always go to a different one. Kids love it

[tarheelwx]

We go every year toward Boone. Several different places. We always go to a different one. Kids love it

Same here.  Always a different spot.  I hope to convince everyone to head west from Boone.  Wind should be brisk on Sunday

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

Same here. Always a different spot. I hope to convince everyone to head west from Boone. Wind should be brisk on Sunday

TW

We normally go first weekend of December

[Met1985]

Mike can you say possible white Thanksgiving.

[MikeGold]

Mike can you say possible white Thanksgiving.

 

That next storm looks very interesting. Looking at the various models,  I would say a white Thanksgiving is good bet for the mtns even this far out in time.. If there isn't outright storm snow-a nice upslope storm should come in behind it.

[franklin NCwx]

its close for western nc next week. if this was a month later I would feel.much.better. it might be an over 5000ft event.

[Met1985]

That next storm looks very interesting. Looking at the various models,  I would say a white Thanksgiving is good bet for the mtns even this far out in time.. If there isn't outright storm snow-a nice upslope storm should come in behind it.

 

 

its close for western nc next week. if this was a month later I would feel.much.better. it might be an over 5000ft event.

Ya it is very close. Right know looks like a snow to rain back to snow event. I agree my the upslope aspect of this system looks very promising. Franklin is this was a month away we might be talking about a sizable snowstorm here in the mountains all the way around.

[NavarreDon]

Hey All, been down in S FL & off the boards for a while due to my Fathers passing. I am back & getting up to speed. Thought i would share this nugget from last nights GSP disscus.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
WAS TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THIS WILL BE A LITTLE OUTSIDE THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00 UTC
GFS AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS UNCANNILY GOOD FOR AN EVENT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. WE/LL SEE HOW WELL THAT HOLDS UP. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF PCPN TYPE. IF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE...OR IF THE SFC LOW REALLY BOMBS TO OUR
SOUTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WE WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAY IT VERY CAUTIOUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

[Met1985]

Hey All, been down in S FL & off the boards for a while due to my Fathers passing. I am back & getting up to speed. Thought i would share this nugget from last nights GSP disscus.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 135 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED

WAS TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE END OF THE

PERIOD...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO

EJECT ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG

THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING UP THE

SOUTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THIS WILL BE A LITTLE OUTSIDE THE VALID

PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00 UTC

GFS AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS UNCANNILY GOOD FOR AN EVENT THIS FAR OUT

IN TIME. WE/LL SEE HOW WELL THAT HOLDS UP. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF PCPN TYPE. IF

THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELS

CURRENTLY INDICATE...OR IF THE SFC LOW REALLY BOMBS TO OUR

SOUTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PARTS

OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WE WILL CONTINUE

TO PLAY IT VERY CAUTIOUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

Great read Don and man so sorry to hear about your father. Thoughts and prayers your way man. Hey I am just across the mountain if you ever want to get together in Asheville sometime. Glad your back also.

[MikeGold]

Should be able to report live from the mtn top tomorrow morning through Sunday so will pass on reports if anything interesting develops including the possible snow Saturday night. Tomorrow morning looks yucky..expect sustained 40 mph winds with drizzle and no visibility in a cloud to greet me upon my arrival..lovely.     Unfortunately, have other plans for the potential Thanksgiving storm so will miss out on that.

[Avdave]

Sorry to hear of the passing of your father Don. Our thoughts are with you and your family.

Good luck to you all next week with the storm. I have a feeling many are going to be surprised on Turkey day itself. Upslope the day after is going to be sweet. im jealous

[MikeGold]

Sorry to hear of the passing of your father Don. Our thoughts are with you and your family.

Good luck to you all next week with the storm. I have a feeling many are going to be surprised on Turkey day itself. Upslope the day after is going to be sweet. im jealous

 

12Z GFS shows it cold enough for all snow next Wed at 0Z with still light to moderate precip still around. It shows no upslope afterward due to a NE wind and dry air entrainment because of an exceptionally large/dry arctic air mass coming down and the low going right out to sea instead of hugging the coast and throwing moisture inland.  I think I would prefer the models to trend to a more Westerly solution so as to throw more moisture back West of the mountains and cause more of a NW flow behind the storm. At this point, the arctic air mass appears to be too large and comes in too fast to allow for a further West solution.  Nevertheless, nice to have something at least brewing around the holidays!

[NavarreDon]

Thanks for the thoughts & prayers guys! 85 we will def get together sometime soon. I work in retail so my schedule is about to go haywire. Sorry for the off topic post.

[Met1985]

Thanks for the thoughts & prayers guys! 85 we will def get together sometime soon. I work in retail so my schedule is about to go haywire. Sorry for the off topic post.

Ah ya I bet. Just give me a PM man and we can meet up in Asheville. I know there are some really nice restaurants in the new Biltmore Park.

[Met1985]

18z still advertising some snow for this weekend. Going to be wind driven snow at that.

[franklin NCwx]

we.need a.phase with the northern stream for a big snow.

[Met1985]

we.need a.phase with the northern stream for a big snow.

Ya still plenty of time. This thing is a week away.

[NavarreDon]

we.need a.phase with the northern stream for a big snow.

 

Agh....the memories!

 

Let the model madness begin......GSP afternoon long term:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 245 EST PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR

AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE

PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A BIT OF SPREAD IN REGARD TO THE

TIMING OF A GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP ACROSS THE SE COAST

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW SUN WILL

TRACK EASTWARD INTO TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING

THIS PERIOD. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BEYOND 12Z SUN...WITH THE

FASTER ECMWF TAKES THE CUT-OFF LOW INTO LA/MS BY WED 6Z..AND

PUSHING IT UP INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY 18Z. HOWEVER...THE GFS

IS 12HRS SLOWER...BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY

00Z.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON SUN WILL SLOWLY

SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE LOW

LIFTING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AL/GA TUE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS

OF SC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO

THE MIDLANDS OF SC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING

HEAVY PRECIP TO OUR AREA (AROUND 1-2" OF QPF) DURING THE PASSAGE OF

THE LOW. STILL...MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM

FOR WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE

THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE MTN ZONES BY LATE WED AS A

COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TAKING A

COMPROMISE...POPS WERE INCREASED TO 40/50 PERCENT RANGE TUE NIGHT

INTO WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE

LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN

FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[buckeyefan1]

Hey All, been down in S FL & off the boards for a while due to my Fathers passing. I am back & getting up to speed. Thought i would share this nugget from last nights GSP disscus.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 135 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED

WAS TO LOWER TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE END OF THE

PERIOD...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO

EJECT ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG

THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING UP THE

SOUTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THIS WILL BE A LITTLE OUTSIDE THE VALID

PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00 UTC

GFS AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS UNCANNILY GOOD FOR AN EVENT THIS FAR OUT

IN TIME. WE/LL SEE HOW WELL THAT HOLDS UP. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF PCPN TYPE. IF

THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELS

CURRENTLY INDICATE...OR IF THE SFC LOW REALLY BOMBS TO OUR

SOUTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PARTS

OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WE WILL CONTINUE

TO PLAY IT VERY CAUTIOUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

I'm sorry to hear that Don  Love, Light, Thoughts and Prayers to you and your family

[ncjoaquin]

Thanks for the thoughts & prayers guys! 85 we will def get together sometime soon. I work in retail so my schedule is about to go haywire. Sorry for the off topic post.

 

 

Sorry for your loss Don. My thoughts are with you.       I would join you and 85 if you ever meet. (not to invite myself, but I guess I just did)

[Met1985]

Sorry for your loss Don. My thoughts are with you.       I would join you and 85 if you ever meet. (not to invite myself, but I guess I just did)

No problem. We should try to get some mountain people together who live near Asheville.

[Met1985]

00z GFS still advertising some good upslope snows Saturday night and into Sunday. Going to be very very cold for this time of the year.

[MikeGold]

Made it up top this morning..now where is the snow? 38...wind blown fog..rather pleasant considering the time of year..of course that will all change Saturday

[NavarreDon]

I'm sorry to hear that Don  Love, Light, Thoughts and Prayers to you and your family

 

 

Sorry for your loss Don. My thoughts are with you.       I would join you and 85 if you ever meet. (not to invite myself, but I guess I just did)

 

Michelle & Jason, Thank you so much! Great crew in the SE. Jason, would hope to see you at any get together in the Asheville area.

[nchighcountrywx]

Raysweather.com Thanksgiving Forecast for the NC High Country

 

 

We have two "Big Deals" to cover in the forecast today: 1) the coldest air of the season arriving this weekend and 2) a low tracking across the Southeast and up the East Coast next week threatening pre-Thanksgiving travel. 

A front is approaching from the west today and will pass through the Appalachians later tonight. Temperatures today are milder. We'll have plenty of mild/dry hours between early AM fog lifting and light rain or drizzle developing later this afternoon. Light rain and drizzle continues tonight. 

Big Deal #1... The frontal passage is a few hours faster than we thought yesterday. So, virtually all the rain will be to our east Saturday; however, we do have to leave the door open for early light rain or drizzle Saturday morning and flurries later Saturday into Saturday night. Colder air begins its siege Saturday afternoon and takes full control Saturday night. Sunday promises to be the coldest day of the season to date with clear skies. 

Big Deal #2... An upper-level low in Southern California today moves east and spawns surface low pressure in the western Gulf Monday. With the super-cold air laid down this weekend in front of this system, the stakes are raised for some icing at the onset of precipitation. While the bulk of this even will be rain (Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning), a wintry mix is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then precipitation may end as snow or snow showers Wednesday. Keep an eye on these important travel days as we bet closer in time. As an aside, we really need the precipitation after several months of abnormally dry weather. 

All the precipitation will be to our northeast by Thanksgiving Day... clearing and very cold. The only warm spots will be around turkeys in deep fryers.

[Met1985]

Well looks like we will see our low tomorrow morning then temps plummet. Our forecast is calling for a low Sunday morning of 13 with a high of 23 degrees with wind gusts 40-45 mph. Um that's pretty chilly for this time of the year lol. I like the idea for some snow next week around here. GFS trending towards the Euro.

[Met1985]

Looking at this mornings GFS run a lot of the mountains could be tromping through the snow on Thanksgiving morning. Wow looks like a day right out from January. Very impressed with the possibilities. Could see several inches of snow per this morning run. I have a feeling we continue to trend better as we get closer. Could be wrong but seems like the GFS is trending better for the mountains.