ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The SREF is wetter and further west it looks like. SREF plume way up at AVL. One member at 16 and another at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF plume way up at AVL. One member at 16 and another at 18. Can you post a link to plumes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF plume way up at AVL. One member at 16 and another at 18. Mean is nearly 7 inches, wow talk about a huge jump. Buckle your seat belts folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Up to 5.5 here. Two members at 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can you post a link to plumes? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140209&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.42906773122139&mLON=-79.288746484375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Glad no one jumped off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Glad no one jumped off the cliff. Don't worry, there's still time for an eastward shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 why are folks talking wednesday, for three days this was suppose to start monday nite late and last thru thursday morning, first wave monday nite and second wave tuesday nite/wednesday, are models playing a few games before they finally lock in? i also thought there would be a wsw out for late tomorrow nite already. will have to just wait and see what happens. I know in storms past that moisture seems to always creep further north than is forecasted. we'll see about that in due time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 18z NAM is looking fantastic, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Has shifted west some! The 18z NAM is looking fantastic, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z nam is what we wanna see here in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Has shifted west some! The 18z NAM is looking fantastic, guys. Asheville gets more than 1.25 inches liquid. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam is still going to town at 78. Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well the southward shift for the NAM ended abruptly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam is as close to March 93 as I have seen. Still snowing hard at 84 nice well defined 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just to temper expectations a bit...it is the NAM! One of America's worst models we run. While fun to look at, the NAM has let me down a lot more often than it has helped my forecast. I continue to advise extreme caution when looking at its solutions. It also has had terrible run-to-run consistency. A few days ago, the Euro showed this week as toe main events: Monday and Wednesday. For whatever reason, we are basically back to that general idea. Light snow Monday, half inch at best across the mountains during the afternoon. Then Tuesday looks like maybe a few flurries as the southern storm gets going. Wednesday should be the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just to temper expectations a bit...it is the NAM! One of America's worst models we run. While fun to look at, the NAM has let me down a lot more often than it has helped my forecast. I continue to advise extreme caution when looking at its solutions. It also has had terrible run-to-run consistency. A few days ago, the Euro showed this week as toe main events: Monday and Wednesday. For whatever reason, we are basically back to that general idea. Light snow Monday, half inch at best across the mountains during the afternoon. Then Tuesday looks like maybe a few flurries as the southern storm gets going. Wednesday should be the main show. The main reason I'm excited about the NAM is that it was one of the only models shunning WNC, but now the majority of the models have significant snowfall for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 why are folks talking wednesday, for three days this was suppose to start monday nite late and last thru thursday morning, first wave monday nite and second wave tuesday nite/wednesday, are models playing a few games before they finally lock in? i also thought there would be a wsw out for late tomorrow nite already. will have to just wait and see what happens. I know in storms past that moisture seems to always creep further north than is forecasted. we'll see about that in due time. We are too far away for any winter headlines yet. The main deal should be Wednesday. Until then, we have a dusting or so of snow, which is well below any advisory criteria. Wednesday is still 70-90 hours away and a lot can, and will, change between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 To much model inconsistency for me really. I still like my first call of 4-8 inches but I am with tracker. I am not sold on a big snow yet. We have gotten screwed to many times this year. Really would like to believe the NAM but hey it is the NAM. The euro seems to be more on our side and the GFS is like well were am I at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For some strange reason, most models want to leave Graham County in southwest North Carolina out of the heavy accumulations This area is typically a big winner in these types of events. Elevations nearing 6000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 For some strange reason, most models want to leave Graham County in southwest North Carolina out of the heavy accumulations This area is typically a big winner in these types of events. Elevations nearing 6000ft. I really would not worry too much about that yet. Still we are 3 day away from the main event it seems. A lot of changes afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 To much model inconsistency for me really. I still like my first call of 4-8 inches but I am with tracker. I am not sold on a big snow yet. We have gotten screwed to many times this year. Really would like to believe the NAM but hey it is the NAM. The euro seems to be more on our side and the GFS is like well were am I at? Chris Justus agrees with you. He is the meteorologist for WYFF but is WNC born and bred so he studies a great deal for us. Here is the video he just released 10 mins ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUa1lH8Eqj0&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think I will hang my hat on the Euro Ensemble means and go with 8" locally on Wed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think I will hang my hat on the Euro Ensemble means and go with 8" locally on Wed... Wow man! Bold call this far out still. I'm yet to be convinced seeing that the GFS is still not on board fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow man! Bold call this far out still. I'm yet to be convinced seeing that the GFS is still not on board fully. Not fully on board, but it looks like it's catching on. I think while we're making calls though we should just go with the NAM or CMC and say 10-15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Chris Justus agrees with you. He is the meteorologist for WYFF but is WNC born and bred so he studies a great deal for us. Here is the video he just released 10 mins ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUa1lH8Eqj0&feature=youtu.be Thank you for the link. Very informative. I think I will hang my hat on the Euro Ensemble means and go with 8" locally on Wed... I agree Mike. I really like the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow man! Bold call this far out still. I'm yet to be convinced seeing that the GFS is still not on board fully. I've been curious as to why you've been putting so much on the GFS for this event. Sure it has been decent all winter, but there is a general model consensus outside of the GFS about a big winter storm, plus the GFS has been all over the place with this event. Just trying to learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've been curious as to why you've been putting so much on the GFS for this event. Sure it has been decent all winter, but there is a general model consensus outside of the GFS about a big winter storm, plus the GFS has been all over the place with this event. Just trying to learn! The GFS is all over the place. But so is the NAM. And you correctly pointed out that the GFS has been very good so far this winter. So among the American models, it's an easy choice to go with the GFS. Then the CMC seems very aggressive on this storm, despite that it had a very high verification score as of late. The Euro has been flipping and shifting too; one day west next day east, and so on. I think the ideal forecast is a GFS and Euro blend. But my biggest reason for holding back is that it is still 3 days away. We were all burned by last weeks forecast for a big event so I am very cautious and watching trends carefully before showing my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A couple more trends guys and we will all be digging out. This should be party time for this thread, heck we are most likely all going to get at least 3+ inches of snow. That hasn't happened in 3 years. I see a lot of doom and gloom about a certain model but it still gives us measurable snowfall. It feels like some of you are hoping for a trend away and while I can see you trying to be realistic, the gfs typically will trend northwest and I can't see that hurting our snowfall whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A couple more trends guys and we will all be digging out. This should be party time for this thread, heck we are most likely all going to get at least 3+ inches of snow. That hasn't happened in 3 years. I see a lot of doom and gloom about a certain model but it still gives us measurable snowfall. It feels like some of you are hoping for a trend away and while I can see you trying to be realistic, the gfs typically will trend northwest and I can't see that hurting our snowfall whatsoever. Yea, at this point, even without a trend, I don't see much to complain about. Even the GFS is giving much of the mountains .50 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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