MikeGold Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a complicated model mess this morning! I think the 12Z models should at least clairfy the initial wave and what it is going to do.(not do). At this point, not really willing to discount any possiblity. As SnoJoe suggested-enjoy the build up...this is a hoot! Rarely presented with such an interesting scenario. The grim reaper in the form of Spring is not at all far off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has increased snowfall for franklin to 9". The ensembles has Asheville at about the same, op is right in line with ensembles for Asheville. The op is a little more bullish with snowfall for the sw mtns tho. Will be happy if we can get an area wide 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has increased snowfall for franklin to 9". The ensembles has Asheville at about the same, op is right in line with ensembles for Asheville. The op is a little more bullish with snowfall for the sw mtns tho. Will be happy if we can get an area wide 9". Ya 9 inches and everyone would be in heaven here. Some big Changes to the models overnight. It is good the EURO had support from the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has increased snowfall for franklin to 9". The ensembles has Asheville at about the same, op is right in line with ensembles for Asheville. The op is a little more bullish with snowfall for the sw mtns tho. Will be happy if we can get an area wide 9". Can you give me an idea for the southern foothills? Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can you give me an idea for the southern foothills? Thanks. Sent from my iPhone 8" for Rutherford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hate to ask a MBY question. Thanks for hooking that up sir. I will take 1/2 of that. 8" for Rutherford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 is the first wave weaker now, if so do you guys think a couple of inches out of the first wave and when does it start? have a sister-in-law coming home from Pinehurst to Asheville Tuesday morning or should she come home Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 is the first wave weaker now, if so do you guys think a couple of inches out of the first wave and when does it start? have a sister-in-law coming home from Pinehurst to Asheville Tuesday morning or should she come home Monday? I would think Monday would better myself. Looks like anything tomorrow will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF has snow from tomorrow at 1 pm on and doesn't really stop for the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would think Monday would better myself. Looks like anything tomorrow will be light. thanks, is what my thinking is also. looks like Tuesday morning the first wave might be in gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 thanks, is what my thinking is also. looks like Tuesday morning the first wave might be in gear. Of course, this seems to change every model run. My wife is out of town until tomorrow night, so I will be feeling your pain of having someone traveling and still not being able to tell them potential weather problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hope no one is cliff diving due to the 12z nam. My take from it was a very promising 1st wave, more cold moving in, and a somewhat beefy second wave moving up the coast. Like others have said in the main thread this is a classic setup for a major snowstorm and I think we sit in the best spot temp wise in the south. Enjoy the swings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hope no one is cliff diving due to the 12z nam. My take from it was a very promising 1st wave, more cold moving in, and a somewhat beefy second wave moving up the coast. Like others have said in the main thread this is a classic setup for a major snowstorm and I think we sit in the best spot temp wise in the south. Enjoy the swings! I have said it many times this winter: don't use the NAM. By completely ignoring it and going on a GFS and Euro combo, these wild swings are greatly tempered. NAM isn't what it used to be and hasn't been reliable in over a year. It looks to me like GFS will score a coup and show the NAM who's boss. That being said, it is entirely possible that WNC misses out on most of this prolonged event. Look for maybe a few flurries around here tomorrow and then the "big one" to slide by to our southeast. That's my gut feeling scenario right now. I wasn't "all in" yesterday and I'm still not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we sit in a good position for this storm. I'd take the GFS and euro over the NAM at 84 hours any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I have said it many times this winter: don't use the NAM. By completely ignoring it and going on a GFS and Euro combo, these wild swings are greatly tempered. NAM isn't what it used to be and hasn't been reliable in over a year. It looks to me like GFS will score a coup and show the NAM who's boss. That being said, it is entirely possible that WNC misses out on most of this prolonged event. Look for maybe a few flurries around here tomorrow and then the "big one" to slide by to our southeast. That's my gut feeling scenario right now. I wasn't "all in" yesterday and I'm still not... this storm isn't going to slide south and east of wnc is it? or is this just a hiccup usually a little north and west trend i would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 this storm isn't going to slide south and east of wnc is it? or is this just a hiccup Just saying that it is a possibility. GFS was super dry for Monday compared to the NAM and then the Wednesday system is in so much flux, it's really still too far away to pin down. But it wouldn't shock me to see mountain areas be totally missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just saying that it is a possibility. GFS was super dry for Monday compared to the NAM and then the Wednesday system is in so much flux, it's really still too far away to pin down. But it wouldn't shock me to see mountain areas be totally missed. Me neither.... and based on 3 years of futility, that is probably the safest prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just saying that it is a possibility. GFS was super dry for Monday compared to the NAM and then the Wednesday system is in so much flux, it's really still too far away to pin down. But it wouldn't shock me to see mountain areas be totally missed. Well the GFS now shows 3-5 inches for Asheville, so that's a good sign IMO. EDIT- The Canadian went nuts.. massive phasing.. im just going to imagine I didn't see that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well the GFS now shows 3-5 inches for Asheville, so that's a good sign IMO. EDIT- The Canadian went nuts.. massive phasing.. im just going to imagine I didn't see that.. Yea, things aren't looking too badly right now. The NAM had 2 inches or so for Asheville through 84 hours, but that waa before the main system really gave us much precip. The GFS looked to be around 5, and the canadian, well...let's just get rid of that as an outlier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like we're starting to get a consensus. The storm is shifting east, but we still seem to be in the 4-8 range. As long as the eastward trend doesn't continue then we'll have a major storm on our hands. Does anyone have any thoughts about ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like we're starting to get a consensus. The storm is shifting east, but we still seem to be in the 4-8 range. As long as the eastward trend doesn't continue then we'll have a major storm on our hands. Does anyone have any thoughts about ratios? New Euro was 9.4" at KAVL. GFS was about 5". And NAM was less than 2". CMC of course was the big one with 12" or more. Throw out the highest and lowest forecasts and you get 5-9" range for Wednesday. Could be a quick inch on Monday as well. Shouldn't be a big deal though. Snow ratios should be 9:1 or so given the moisture source and proximity to 850 mb freezing line. I'm still not on board with this system yet. Still at least 3 days away. So I don't expect any WSW to go out until tomorrow. My opinion only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 New Euro was 9.4" at KAVL. GFS was about 5". And NAM was less than 2". CMC of course was the big one with 12" or more. Throw out the highest and lowest forecasts and you get 5-9" range for Wednesday. Could be a quick inch on Monday as well. Shouldn't be a big deal though. Snow ratios should be 9:1 or so given the moisture source and proximity to 850 mb freezing line. I'm still not on board with this system yet. Still at least 3 days away. So I don't expect any WSW to go out until tomorrow. My opinion only. The NAM wasn't really less than two though, right? Because of the cutoff it only shows two, but it looks like most of our snow comes at the end of the run and may continue past. Where do you get euro totals? I assume it's a paid site? Edit: I should mention that the western cutoff for significant snowfall is troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM wasn't really less than two though, right? Because of the cutoff it only shows two, but it looks like most of our snow comes at the end of the run and may continue past. Where do you get euro totals? I assume it's a paid site? Yes, WeatherBell models. $19.95 per month. Really nice to have for situations like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes, WeatherBell models. $19.95 per month. Really nice to have for situations like this! Yea, it would be nice. I got a subscription to americanwx maps, so I can't justify paying $20 just for the euro when others are describing it for me. There's a fairly steep gradient in snow totals. A small shift west would hammer WNC with snow, but a small shift east could leave us with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yea, it would be nice. I got a subscription to americanwx maps, so I can't justify paying $20 just for the euro when others are describing it for me. There's a fairly steep gradient in snow totals. A small shift west would hammer WNC with snow, but a small shift east could leave us with nothing. Exactly! It is the east trends that I am concerned about if you want heavy snow here. Would lean more towards GFS than anything, giving us half inch tomorrow and 2-3" on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Exactly! It is the east trends that I am concerned about if you want heavy snow here. Would lean more towards GFS than anything, giving us half inch tomorrow and 2-3" on Wed. This crap is getting old. This should be a storm that hammers the western part of the state and now we might be fringed. The navy model fwiw is more amped and farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This crap is getting old. This should be a storm that hammers the western part of the state and now we might be fringed. The navy model fwiw is more amped and farther west. Sorry for the newb question, but what is the navy model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sorry for the newb question, but what is the navy model?just another model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 just another model The SREF is wetter and further west it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The SREF is wetter and further west it looks like.plumes will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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