Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I now it will be a minor event tonight and into tomorrow morning with very light precipitation coming in but the GFS and the RAP are pretty bullish on bring some snow into WNC. To some extent the NAM even brings some snow into WNC but the NAM has been pretty horrible lately in my opinion. I think the SW mountains will see the brunt of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I now it will be a minor event tonight and into tomorrow morning with very light precipitation coming in but the GFS and the RAP are pretty bullish on bring some snow into WNC. To some extent the NAM even brings some snow into WNC but the NAM has been pretty horrible lately in my opinion. I think the SW mountains will see the brunt of the moisture. Radar is way better looking than models-expect an inch out of this possibly on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Radar is way better looking than models-expect an inch out of this possibly on top. Ya they are. Not sure why the modes are underplaying moisture here in the mountains lately but I will take it. Could see a blanket of snow down this way. Also the models are looking better for a minor event for Saturday morning also that could give an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah this kind of reminds me of the last little snow we got. Models dried up the northern stream of the storm but it persisted and brought everyone at least an inch (except the airport) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah this kind of reminds me of the last little snow we got. Models dried up the northern stream of the storm but it persisted and brought everyone at least an inch (except the airport) There is a lot of dry air down below..so this might end up being virga except in the highest elevation. Probably why the models don't have a good handle on this. Should know in about 3 hours or so if the precip is falling hard enough to quickly saturate layers to the surface or will move off before it has a chance to finish the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here is the latest form GSP. RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OFSOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING ACHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE BALSAMS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BELESS THAN A HALF INCH. HOWEVER...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTSAS THEY BECOME COVERED IN SNOW...OR AS MELTWATER FREEZES DUE TOFALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE EVENING. ROADS THROUGH HIGHMOUNTAIN GAPS ARE MOST AT RISK. DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTIONIN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. SLOW DOWN...LEAVE EXTRA STOPPINGDISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES...AND TAKE CURVES SLOWLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here is the latest form GSP. RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... PARTICULARLY IN THE BALSAMS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HOWEVER...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS AS THEY BECOME COVERED IN SNOW...OR AS MELTWATER FREEZES DUE TO FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE EVENING. ROADS THROUGH HIGH MOUNTAIN GAPS ARE MOST AT RISK. DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. SLOW DOWN...LEAVE EXTRA STOPPING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES...AND TAKE CURVES SLOWLY. confusing, this says the southwest mtns. then it says asheville, asheville is the central mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 The clouds here have turned that milky white that looks like snow and have lowered. Man is it cold out side current temp of 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hello all...12Z GFS looked like Asheville and Hendersonville getting some light snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 confusing, this says the southwest mtns. then it says asheville, asheville is the central death valley fixed.Can I cash out with the 13" on the euro now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Light snow started up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Been snowing for about 45 min cars and north sides starting to whiten up temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Heck of a Virga storm in Weaverville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Got a nice light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Heck of a Virga storm in Weaverville! You're not missing anything, Don. Light snow here but this stuff must be 100 to 1 ration here. It's like it disappears right before it hits the ground. Looks better south of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Some flurries while I was outside returning from gyms. Next week's event look very interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ended up with just another dusting of snow and 20 this morning. Looking at the latest GFS..now looks more like a snow changing to freezing rain to rain scenario with about 1/2" QPF for next week's storm. I think this solution is too warm..too weak with the low. The Euro is colder-wetter but seems to really unload in the Piedmont areas of Georgia/S. Carolina which is likely unrealistic just from a climatology stand point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ended up with just another dusting of snow and 20 this morning. Looking at the latest GFS..now looks more like a snow changing to freezing rain to rain scenario with about 1/2" QPF for next week's storm. I think this solution is too warm..too weak with the low. The Euro is colder-wetter but seems to really unload in the Piedmont areas of Georgia/S. Carolina which is likely unrealistic just from a climatology stand point. we ride the Canadian. Foot of snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 we ride the Canadian. Foot of snow for us. That would be nice. Shoot I would be happy with 6-8 inches of heavy wet paste! Another Dusting here to Mike. Cold with temp of 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I will feel a whole lot better about this storm if the models don't lose it through today and tomorrows runs. I really hope we can all call this the snowstorm of 2014 but I am cautiously getting my hopes up. There has been incredible consistency though so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I will feel a whole lot better about this storm if the models don't lose it through today and tomorrows runs. I really hope we can all call this the snowstorm of 2014 but I am cautiously getting my hopes up. There has been incredible consistency though so who knows. Ya I would really would like to see the Euro verify but not getting hopes up yet. Just enjoying the little snows and the cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 0z Euro "weenie" run shows ALL 50 members with at least two inches of wintry precip (IP, ZR, snow) from 2/11 to 2/14. Half of it is more than 6 inches. The mean is almost 7.5 inches, which is pretty impressive. Last time we got this good of members this far out, it snowed 3 inches here. We'll see, but like others noted, I would feel better if models don't lose it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 0z Euro "weenie" run shows ALL 50 members with at least two inches of wintry precip (IP, ZR, snow) from 2/11 to 2/14. Half of it is more than 6 inches. The mean is almost 7.5 inches, which is pretty impressive. Last time we got this good of members this far out, it snowed 3 inches here. We'll see, but like others noted, I would feel better if models don't lose it today. Where do you find the euro members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 0z Euro "weenie" run shows ALL 50 members with at least two inches of wintry precip (IP, ZR, snow) from 2/11 to 2/14. Half of it is more than 6 inches. The mean is almost 7.5 inches, which is pretty impressive. Last time we got this good of members this far out, it snowed 3 inches here. We'll see, but like others noted, I would feel better if models don't lose it today. I assume this is for KAVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12Z GFS..maybe 3 inches of snow Monday night..then nada. Doesn't phase....then too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12Z GFS..maybe 3 inches of snow Monday night..then nada. Doesn't phase....then too warm. That's only the 1,784 solution that the GFS has shown. It's all over the map now. Wouldn't surprise me if it gave Cuba snow at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 hopefully the gfs will cave to the euro, I read we're in that time frame where the gfs starts coming around to the euro model. euro showing snow for wnc for most if not all of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cmc is a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Game on still with the 12Z Euro. That is several model runs in a row. Looks like won't be able to call this a lock until Sunday when all the storm ingredients are onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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