franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im all in on the Friday system. Sref is bullish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am glad the rain washed away all the salt...can finally keep the car clean for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dang, a little excited now. Thanks. Look for an epic two weeks starting Sunday. I'll be out of town so ya'll will probable get a 20 incher or two. It never fails. SA, I agree. It was like driving on dirt roads here before it rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Joe glad you love this thread. Have not really looked closely at the models. Been out enjoying the sun and warmth with the family. I know one thing we have gotten a lot of rainfall from this past event which came in at just the right time. We had a small fire here in Haywood this weekend. The Mtn top was pounded with 3" of rain and hurricane force winds during that last event. Some moderate rains and high winds in store for tonight as well. As for snow..hmm. Friday..yawn. Sunday..well it is still in play and worth watching although it is more likely to be a bust than anything locally. Of course the big story will be in the NE as a blizzard starts to gather and effect the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Mtn top was pounded with 3" of rain and hurricane force winds during that last event. Some moderate rains and high winds in store for tonight as well. As for snow..hmm. Friday..yawn. Sunday..well it is still in play and worth watching although it is more likely to be a bust than anything locally. Of course the big story will be in the NE as a blizzard starts to gather and effect the big cities. Ya I am not sold on any kind of wintery event here. The SE ridge is just to strong and we cannot buy a negative NAO. Oh well enjoy the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well I keep reading the Thursday nite and Friday morning is the storm to watch for a couple of inches of snow, and like you said Sunday and Monday storm is still there. Just to hard to believe that if the storm track is to our southeast and we're on the northwest side of the storm we should get a pretty good amount of snow in the Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well I keep reading the Thursday nite and Friday morning is the storm to watch for a couple of inches of snow, and like you said Sunday and Monday storm is still there. Just to hard to believe that if the storm track is to our southeast and we're on the northwest side of the storm we should get a pretty good amount of snow in the Mtns. Actually, the latest 12Z GFS has the low over NE Ohio. However, in that scenario-there could easily be a few inches of wrap around snow on the W/NW facing slopes. Looks like the wild model swings continue. On a side note-how about the mtn top winds forecast for tonight...78 knots at mtn top level!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dang, a little excited now. Thanks. Look for an epic two weeks starting Sunday. I'll be out of town so ya'll will probable get a 20 incher or two. It never fails. SA, I agree. It was like driving on dirt roads here before it rained. Ah the 20 incher, the elusive double headed.... And wow think of the fun that could be had with two of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 30 degrees and rain in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Freezing Rain Advisory hoisted for Avery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 30 degrees and rain in Boone Thats pretty depressing man. But thanks for the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't look now, but the 00z GFS clown map has around a foot for WNC (over 1 inch liquid) on 2/12. Everybody get excited so our dreams can be dashed once again at 6 am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't look now, but the 00z GFS clown map has around a foot for WNC (over 1 inch liquid) on 2/12. Everybody get excited so our dreams can be dashed once again at 6 am! Sadly... just nothing to get excited until Euro jumps onto the bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nice run for those east of NC/TN border from Euro, especially northeastward from Asheville toward Greensboro. I would like to see both models sticking to this idea for another two days before calling "game on" for 2/11 to 2/14 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Has been very windy this morning with a temp of 46 degrees. There is a lot of systems flying around the next 10 days. Will we get a decent snow or will we just get flurries or anything at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Has been very windy this morning with a temp of 46 degrees. There is a lot of systems flying around the next 10 days. Will we get a decent snow or will we just get flurries or anything at all? I think we will have flakes flying at some point between now and Sunday with something bigger next week. Not sure that much of this weekend snow accumulates but snow showers aren't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think we will have flakes flying at some point between now and Sunday with something bigger next week. Not sure that much of this weekend snow accumulates but snow showers aren't out of the question. Ya just looking at the current model run looks like we get fringed this weekend and then the next system goes north of us but we are to warm anyway. We really need a negative NAO to get a suppressed system for us. The 11th through the 13 event look interesting but the system will probably trend north and we will just get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ya just looking at the current model run looks like we get fringed this weekend and then the next system goes north of us but we are to warm anyway. We really need a negative NAO to get a suppressed system for us. The 11th through the 13 event look interesting but the system will probably trend north and we will just get rain. Yeah I agree I am not trusting anything LR right now. It is nice to see the gfs have 3 consecutive runs of having a storm at the 11-13th time frame but it did this same thing over the weekend. Not getting my hopes up but it is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah I agree I am not trusting anything LR right now. It is nice to see the gfs have 3 consecutive runs of having a storm at the 11-13th time frame but it did this same thing over the weekend. Not getting my hopes up but it is something to watch. Ya we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 It has been really amazing we have not seen a negative NAO since really back in October were it went below 1 SD. That is pretty impressive. Until we get some blocking across Greenland I do not think we will see anything big for us. We may have to wait for March or April but hey we have seen some big snows then as well. I still like March having a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Guys I think Im reading the maps correctly but it looks like all three global models from 0Z or 6Z (GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS (formerly the GGEM)) on board with 6-12" snow for us next Tuesday/Wednesday. Havent looked at 12Z runs yet. Comments please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Guys I think Im reading the maps correctly but it looks like all three global models from 0Z or 6Z (GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS (formerly the GGEM)) on board with 6-12" snow for us next Tuesday/Wednesday. Havent looked at 12Z runs yet. Comments please? 12z also shows something decent but I think everyone is cautiously viewing these trends because we were burnt by a similar set up on the models last weekend. Who knows the Sunday storm could pop back up tonight or tomorrow on the models but that's not likely. I think once you see this storm showing up within 100-120 hrs people will begin to buzz. They might even call it fantasy then but I think we sit in the best spot for snow in the SE over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Guys I think Im reading the maps correctly but it looks like all three global models from 0Z or 6Z (GFS, ECMWF, and GDPS (formerly the GGEM)) on board with 6-12" snow for us next Tuesday/Wednesday. Havent looked at 12Z runs yet. Comments please? The farther north you go the better chance for that still but at that time period over 150 hours out I am not buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The models have been terrible about 3-4 day plus out this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z also shows something decent but I think everyone is cautiously viewing these trends because we were burnt by a similar set up on the models last weekend. Who knows the Sunday storm could pop back up tonight or tomorrow on the models but that's not likely. I think once you see this storm showing up within 100-120 hrs people will begin to buzz. They might even call it fantasy then but I think we sit in the best spot for snow in the SE over the next few weeks. **EDIT**I agree Ward...this weekends event busted big time...and I see lots of those guys in the piedmont are saying that most of next Tuesdays storm is ice...Yikes!...I don't know enough about boundary layer maps to distinguish snow/sleet/ice...I see some of you guys posting those aviation code BUFKIT graphs...Does it differentiate precip types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I agree '85...this weekends event busted big time...and I see lots of those guys in the piedmont are saying that most of next Tuesdays storm is ice...Yikes!...I don't know enough about boundary layer maps to distinguish snow/sleet/ice...I see some of you guys posting those aviation code BUFKIT graphs...Does it differentiate precip types? BUFKIT has a whole variety of tools to determine precip type for locations that have bufkit sounding files for. What specific location are you interested in? BUFKIT locations are available here on this map: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 BUFKIT has a whole variety of tools to determine precip type for locations that have bufkit sounding files for. What specific location are you interested in? BUFKIT locations are available here on this map: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html Is it available by inputing lat/longitude? instead of aviation code location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok Mike...I see it now...I can use Boone KTNB for the closest location...Thats interesting because the meteostar site did not give KTNB as an option...Thank you Sir Now let me dig up my slide rule to interpret those symbols and numbers...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok Mike...I see it now...I can use Boone KTNB for the closest location...Thats interesting because the meteostar site did not give KTNB as an option...Thank you Sir Now let me dig up my slide rule to interpret those symbols and numbers...lol Good luck! Most situations, it is very easy to see what precip type it will be. One should also look at a standard 850 mb forecast model maps as to see if there is projected to be a warm nose near the bufkit site location or otherwise you won't realize it is there just looking at BUFKIT and perhaps just a slight change in the path of the storm system will yield precip issues when nothing showed in the software modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 39 and moderate snow in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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