MikeGold Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Just looking at the 18z things do look likely for the mountains I would say for a significant event. Also look at how cols it is going to get. This HP means business. Not really sure what the EURO has for us. Tough call on this but with deep moisture...plenty of cold air that should overlap..it seems likely that there will be snow in the mtns. One interesting thing is the winds should be more out of the North than the typical NW flow setup...with possible lake enhanced moisture coming into play due to the expected parcel trajectory. Of course-there will be some sinking air associated with the huge high pressure coming in and associated dry air. I am going to take a closer look at the 12Z guidance then make a decision whether to head to the mtn top to partake in the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Tough call on this but with deep moisture...plenty of cold air that should overlap..it seems likely that there will be snow in the mtns. One interesting thing is the winds should be more out of the North than the typical NW flow setup...with possible lake enhanced moisture coming into play due to the expected parcel trajectory. Of course-there will be some sinking air associated with the huge high pressure coming in and associated dry air. I am going to take a closer look at the 12Z guidance then make a decision whether to head to the mtn top to partake in the fun. Good call on the flow setup not being the typical NW but from the north. Ya seems like it is still to early to nail down the details. A lot of variance from the GFS and the Euro on the details. Well if you don't make it Mike I will post lots of pics for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Gfs snowfall product actually has the most depicted over the Plott Balsam range..nature is daring me to come to the mtn top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 looks like the mountains of SW North Carolina are in for a good 3 to 6. possibly more at the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Gfs snowfall product actually has the most depicted over the Plott Balsam range..nature is daring me to come to the mtn top! It does look the SW mountains are going to be in the sweet spot. That is one the GFS has been consistent on if the SW mountains getting the best moisture feed. looks like the mountains of SW North Carolina are in for a good 3 to 6. possibly more at the highest elevations. Ya as Mike mentioned this looks like the southern half of the mountains will do the best. Hard to say on totals but with the temps crashing and the upper levels I think there will be some nice snow totals coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Models have backed off the bomb major storm for th mountians idea but I bet we see some light to moderate accumulations from a fair NW flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Winds to veer to the NE suggesting some enhancement in the Balsams instead of the usual TN border areas. Still wind at 850 probably less than 25 knots so orothograhics minimal. Going to pass on this and head to Northern Michigan tomorrow for some fun in the snow instead! Pics to follow if I get any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Winds to veer to the NE suggesting some enhancement in the Balsams instead of the usual TN border areas. Still wind at 850 probably less than 25 knots so orothograhics minimal. Going to pass on this and head to Northern Michigan tomorrow for some fun in the snow instead! Pics to follow if I get any. Ya Mike looks like the GFS has really dried up the QPF from this frontal passage. Oh well only November right. We might see an inch coming from what the models are putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 That third picture is amazing. That is where I want to spend my winter. I love it. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I have to drive to Marysville/Lexington every winter - always look forward to the snow. I love snow. Guess it is what I get for growing up in FL. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Here in Wise the snow is flying!!!!! I'd say there's about 1/2 inch on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Here in Wise the snow is flying!!!!! I'd say there's about 1/2 inch on the ground! Nice! post some pics. Looking forward to the snow flying around here later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 We have snow!!!!!! Rain just changed to snow a bit ago. Temp has dropped fast. Down to 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Congrats folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 temps dropping like a rock here starting to cloud up really good still nothing falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Snow falling in Gatlinburg: http://viewhd.gatlinburg-getaway.com/ Per the NASA rain gauge network..about 0.1" to 0.18" of liquid has fallen at the base of the Smokies this morning..so I suspect at least 1 to 2" of snow has already fallen in the highest elevations. http://gg.gsfc.nasa.gov/ The Clingman's Dome site shows nothing...likely meaning that all that has fallen has been in frozen form and sitting in the rain gauge un-counted. (Newfound Gap at least 0.04" of precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Snow flurries in northern Mitchell county @ 2600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Already closed parts of the Blue Ridge Parkway due to snow per GSNP Tweet one hour ago. "Blue Ridge Parkway from US441 to US19 at Socco Gap is being closed due to snow and icy conditions." Looks like the precip associated with the cold front has come and gone. Next up is a band associated with some post-frontal action. (Probably some lift from the right rear quadrant of strong jet is helping out.) It is worth noting that the new Blue Ridge Parkway Weather site basically missed this entire event: http://brpweather.com/forecast/Balsam%20Gap For all the specific sites..it talks about a few sprinkles ending as flurries and suggests no impact to driving on the Parkway today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Small flakes beginning to make it down to the valley floor here in Downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 The road to my barn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Excellent pics everyone, I saw some reports of flurries and -sn in Asheville as well earlier today and Boone, last night had some reports of flurries too. Keep em coming, Love WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Nice pics guys. Nothing like that around here but we do have a dusting but the wind is blowing so crazy nothing is really laying. Current temp is 22 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Looking at the models it looks like our next possible event could be around the 19th and the 20th with a significant trough developing and coming East through the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Interesting Mike. The 12z still showing an upslope event occurring from the 19th through the 20th. Looking very cold also behind this next front. Still out there a ways and the Euro brings the energy more North than the GFS does. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 It appears the Euro is the model of choice in the upcoming scenario. It develops a 980 mb low associated with a negative tilt trough near Wisconsin..and keeps most of the cold air well North of the NC mountains with a quick progressive pattern to follow. (The latest GFS is starting to come around to the 0Z Euro solution.) Hence it appears the next upslope event possibility will be associated with another cold shot of air that might be in the vicinity around November 25. However, unless the trough deepens a little more than depicted by the model-that next shot of cold air may also tend to stay North. (Some indications of a negative NAO developing which might help the cause.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 It appears the Euro is the model of choice in the upcoming scenario. It develops a 980 mb low associated with a negative tilt trough near Wisconsin..and keeps most of the cold air well North of the NC mountains with a quick progressive pattern to follow. (The latest GFS is starting to come around to the 0Z Euro solution.) Hence it appears the next upslope event possibility will be associated with another cold shot of air that might be in the vicinity around November 25. However, unless the trough deepens a little more than depicted by the model-that next shot of cold air may also tend to stay North. (Some indications of a negative NAO developing which might help the cause.) I was also noticing this overnight Mike. Really the rest of the month can be sort of meh. I am really looking down the road towards December when the indicies are more favorable and we get into meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 How could you sell such a perfect house! That place is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ya Mike I was looking at that but was not impressed but wow is it going to get cold to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 Ya not to sure whether I am biting for this setup or not. The GFS run looked much better last night but ya this mornings run coming in much drier. We shall see. Going to be cold and windy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Heading to Boone Friday evening. App vs. Western on Saturday afternoon/evening and then getting a tree on Sunday. Anyone have a recommendation on where to get a tree and most likey to have some snow on the ground? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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