ncjoaquin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fox Run vet?.....hahahah! & suddenly a mental image of a man walking the aisles with a grin on his face as the Jackson five verse "ABC....123" plays in the back round comes to mind. Sorry for getting off topic guys. We're casual in here. That's what we do. 30 degrees as a side note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We're casual in here. That's what we do. 30 degrees as a side note. Really like that the Mods give us some freedom in here. Jason you nailed it a couple weeks ago when you said some winter weather will lighten your mood! Of course Joe has some other options that will almost do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Really like that the Mods give us some freedom in here. Jason you nailed it a couple weeks ago when you said some winter weather will lighten your mood! Of course Joe has some other options that will almost do as well. I think the Mods have their hands full with the primary thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Really like that the Mods give us some freedom in here. Jason you nailed it a couple weeks ago when you said some winter weather will lighten your mood! Of course Joe has some other options that will almost do as well. I think Joe has a more tried and true method!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hear ya on the no state taxes...my brother lives in JC...I would consider looking at Unicoi county or Greene county to the southwest of JC and Carter county to the northeast of JC. Depending on what property you are looking for, Greene county is huge with lots of rural/farm land and it borders Madison county,NC...SE Greene is a great upslope area and is always mentioned by NWS in Morristown during impending upslope events.sounds like Greene county is a good spot. I know Madison county does well with upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Easy to police yourselves in this thread. It has been a great read for me over the last month or so! Really like that the Mods give us some freedom in here. Jason you nailed it a couple weeks ago when you said some winter weather will lighten your mood! Of course Joe has some other options that will almost do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hope the rap is right. I love overunning events from the gulf, the sw mtns always enhance the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP looks fantastic: Seems like each run keeps getting better and better. Getting pretty excited about this. Temp down to 20 degrees with some nice gusts. Really like that the Mods give us some freedom in here. Jason you nailed it a couple weeks ago when you said some winter weather will lighten your mood! Of course Joe has some other options that will almost do as well. Ya the mods have been great. kind of like a thread to keep the mountains folks happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Seems like each run keeps getting better and better. Getting pretty excited about this. Temp down to 20 degrees with some nice gusts. It does seem to be getting better, but I worry about how much of our precipitation will be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 sounds like Greene county is a good spot. I know Madison county does well with upslope. It is amazing the mountains really from Swain north all have some nice micro climate NW flow snow sweet spots! Lol say that a few times. Easy to police yourselves in this thread. It has been a great read for me over the last month or so! Ya we have a great bunch of poster in here along with everyone else. Has been great getting to know most of yall from the net. I hope the rap is right. I love overunning events from the gulf, the sw mtns always enhance the qpf. Ya the SW mtns have seen some nice totals coming from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fox Run vet?.....hahahah! & suddenly a mental image of a man walking the aisles with a grin on his face as the Jackson five verse "ABC....123" plays in the back round comes to mind. Sorry for getting off topic guys. HAHAHA I was going to ask if he was getting his horse tranquilizer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does seem to be getting better, but I worry about how much of our precipitation will be virga. That is painful to see good returns and that milky sky and no ground truth. Hopefully, it will be cold enough to ring out every bit of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That is painful to see good returns and that milky sky and no ground truth. Hopefully, it will be cold enough to ring out every bit of moisture. I can't imagine that we would see those returns for very long without having something reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF is coming in. The mountains look to be in a bit better position as it brings .10-.25 inches a ways into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am liking this! I posted it in the main thread but things are moving really fast there. 8:30 pm GSP disco update: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...AS OF 830 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WASSLIGHTLY EAST OF I-85. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OFTHE FRONT. IN FACT...HICKORY COOLED OVER 14 DEGREES OVER THE PASTTHREE HOURS. THE UPDATE WILL CONTAIN SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLYTEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WINDS...AND SKY. TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULDRANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S EAST...OR 35 TO 40 DEGREES COLDERTHAN TODAY/S HIGHS. STRONG CAA AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WINDCHILL VALUES FALLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THE CURRENTWIND CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED.SNOWFALL FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLYSTATIONARY ACROSS NRN FL NE ALONG THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. BY 12ZTUES...THE AXIS OF A POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL BE OVER THECENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 0ZWEDS. THE 18Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING THATA WIDE FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THESOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION BETWEEN 18Z-0Z WED. HOWEVER...WEAKER MIDLEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE FROM THE WEST...PRIMARILY OVERTHE NC MTNS. MODELS RESPOND TO THE EARLY MORNING FORCING WITH LIGHTQPF ACROSS THE TN BORDER OF THE NC MTNS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTTO INDICATE AN EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. BYMID DAY...AS THE MID LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THEREGION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE SCCOAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...H85-H7FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND THE UPSTATE OFSC...PEAKING BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z. IN ADDITION...FORCING WILL DEEPENWILL THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THE PEAK OF THELOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A BROAD AREA OFPRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE BEST RATES BETWEEN18Z-6Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL EXTENDFROM BELOW 1 KFT TO 35 KFT DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST FORCING. INADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW...WITHMOISTURE EXTENDING FAR BEYOND THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE.I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE WPC QPF WITH NAM THROUGH 0Z WED. THISAPPROACH WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND ACROSS THEEASTERN PIEDMONT. SNOW RATIO GUIDANCE FAVORS VALUES AROUND 15 TO 1.THE AREA ACROSS GRAHAM TO SWAIN IS CLOSE TO ADVISORY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The newest RAP still looks good, throwing down some fairly heavy returns. Of course it's still not translating into much on the ground, but it's a start. Part of Haywood county actually looks to get over .10 inches based on this RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I was outside for few hours playing Ultimate. It was so cold my water froze, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I posted last night about the nam picking up heavy vort on the 500mb map in East Tennessee as the storm passed by and it looks like the over running precip could be a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ok guys. Don't take too much stock in the 00Z NAM. As I posted in the main thread, and as you all know, we have been fooled by the NAM a lot this winter and really all last 12 months. The RAP has been excellent and I would stay the course using its solutions. In other words, don't panic that the NAM continues to keep much of wNC dry. I don't think it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GSP just put out a new snowfall map. Asheville is up to .7 now...approaching that 1 inch barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 About to throw in the towel just east of the Blue ridge, most models are showing some sort of downsloping component with a precip minimum over the area.. which is rather odd since the wind is more due north than nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fox Run vet?.....hahahah! & suddenly a mental image of a man walking the aisles with a grin on his face as the Jackson five verse "ABC....123" plays in the back round comes to mind. Sorry for getting off topic guys. I think Joe has a more tried and true method!! HAHAHA I was going to ask if he was getting his horse tranquilizer? Just got through organizing the emergency supplies, and everything seems to be in order! Man, it's cold. Down to 12.4. The wind is steady at 18 to 21, funny though, no gusts to speak of, just a constant roar coming up from the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 About to throw in the towel just east of the Blue ridge, most models are showing some sort of downsloping component with a precip minimum over the area.. which is rather odd since the wind is more due north than nw Agreed...this isn't looking like our storm. It seems like an inch is going to be our best hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agreed...this isn't looking like our storm. It seems like an inch is going to be our best hope. GFS still keeps us in the .1-.25 so im not completely quitting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the GFS is finally picking up on what Robert and HurricaneTracker have mentioned....even with .1-.2 QPF with higher ratios that would be a very decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 About to throw in the towel just east of the Blue ridge, most models are showing some sort of downsloping component with a precip minimum over the area.. which is rather odd since the wind is more due north than nw I don't think there is any downsloping evident in this storm. If anything, we'd be getting upslope as the precipitation arrives from the SW and rises over our little hills and dales. The RAP has been juicy recently, and Robert Gamble is quite confident that snow will spread over all of NC. One of his recent posts on Facebook references the fact that he thinks all of NC should be under an advisory. Perhaps that will be the case when I awaken in the morning. These are advisories issued by your NWS, not me or any TV station. My forecast is sometimes different, well, usually a bit different and in this case, all this looks justified, but I'd add all of NC, SC, GA (except se GA) and all of northeast AL to an advisory, but I don't issue those. And probably more advisories in southern third of Virginia to mid VA. Stick to your local outlets for your official forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the GFS is finally picking up on what Robert and HurricaneTracker have mentioned....even with .1-.2 QPF with higher ratios that would be a very decent snow. Agree. 15:1 ratios and .1-.25 QPF so I am sticking with the call of 2-4" of snow for most mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think there is any downsloping evident in this storm. If anything, we'd be getting upslope as the precipitation arrives from the SW and rises over our little hills and dales. The RAP has been juicy recently, and Robert Gamble is quite confident that snow will spread over all of NC. One of his recent posts on Facebook references the fact that he thinks all of NC should be under an advisory. Perhaps that will be the case when I awaken in the morning. Has the RAP been juicy? It has some nice returns but virtually nothing reaching the ground, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agree. 15:1 ratios and .1-.25 QPF so I am sticking with the call of 2-4" of snow for most mountain areas. What your thinking around N.Foothills Mount Airy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agree. 15:1 ratios and .1-.25 QPF so I am sticking with the call of 2-4" of snow for most mountain areas. What your thinking around N.Foothills Mount Airy? A tad less I think. 1-3" is what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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