Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good question. Overrunning is commonly used to describe a situation where warm, moist air rises up and over a boundary and then gets "wrung out" over the cold dome. This falling precipitation can take on any number of forms, from snow to sleet to freezing rain. In our case, we will be -10C to -12C at 850mb (about 5000' up), and below 0C at the surface, creating a column that is totally below freezing. Our precipitation type will be all snow. That's the easy part. The hard part are the snow ratios. In a typical setup, a 10:1 ratio is common when the 850mb temperature hovers around 0C. Since we will be so much colder at that level, I expect snow ratios to be higher, say 15:1 or even 20:1 if it is cold enough aloft. This would produce a very light fluffy snow that is also easily picked up and blown by the wind. Accumulations will be harder to do with lighter snow if there is any wind. Euro is suggesting steady winds tomorrow of 5-10 knots, so it won't be terribly windy. The liquid equivalent from the Euro for KAVL was 0.09". At 15:1, this would produce 1.4" of powdery snow, and at 20:1, it would be 1.8" of powdery snow. Hope that helps. EDIT: Overrunning situations also tend to last a bit longer so long as a moisture source is present. Euro suggests snow from 7am to 7pm tomorrow for much of the mountains. But with such low snow totals, you can see that it will take quite a bit of time to accumulate. Wow great post Tracker! Great to have a local Met from the Asheville area post for us! Thank you. New to forum..Hope to help out with observations in the high mountains of Western North Carolina! Welcome aboard! Were at in WNC do you live if you don't mind me asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 18Z GFS increases QPF once again to the .10-.25 range with ratios could be 2-4 inches of snow for most of WNC, the RAP is also looking to increase the overrunning precip as well... Was just fixing to post about the 18z. Just gat back from Asheville and not a cloud in the sky over there. Yep the 18z looks really good for a solid event here. You have to get excited about the recent trends today getting under 24 hours from when this is going to start. More moisture and a little longer duration with temps being perfect for snowfall and having the ground frozen. I would say some areas may not get out of the teens tomorrow. Also about the temps they have really plummeted here. Down to 27 degrees already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Posters in the other thread have been talking about a potential phase. What does this mean and what are the potential implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Graham County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Posters in the other thread have been talking about a potential phase. What does this mean and what are the potential implications? A phase would mean a wider expanse of precipitation which would be good for use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Graham County Ok nice. Beautiful country around there with the lake and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 interesting; might wife and I have been looking to move up to that area in east Tennessee in the mtns. But she will need to work in Johnson city at the hospital. I will be looking for a great upslope area but not too far of a drive for her to get to work. We would prefer to be on the Tennessee side, (no state income taxes). I hear ya on the no state taxes...my brother lives in JC...I would consider looking at Unicoi county or Greene county to the southwest of JC and Carter county to the northeast of JC. Depending on what property you are looking for, Greene county is huge with lots of rural/farm land and it borders Madison county,NC...SE Greene is a great upslope area and is always mentioned by NWS in Morristown during impending upslope events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the GEFS is backing up the GFS. Puts AVL well into the .10-.25 inches of qpf range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Graham County Are you in the Snobird Mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Things will be very interesting over the next couple of hours as this thing develops on radar. I am looking at the WV in the Texas panhandle and the radar over middle Texas to see where the precip. starts firing up. The northern stream will provide our base for moisture with interaction between the two energy's causing moisture to fill in between the top of the storm and the gulf. The more northern the precip starts to fire up the better it is for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reflectivity at 18 hours on the 22z RAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Posters in the other thread have been talking about a potential phase. What does this mean and what are the potential implications? Pardon the rudimentary explanation but, a phase or partial phase is when two pieces of energy (normally one to the N & one to the S) link up to create more dynamics & therefore a larger, wetter precip sheild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok folks. I'm biting the bullet and going bold. Given the 12Z Euro and the latest RAP developments, I feel more comfortable with saying: I THINK ASHEVILLE WILL FINALLY BREAK THE SNOW DROUGHT! Yes, that's right. A nice 2-4" of snow is my forecast for the area. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok folks. I'm biting the bullet and going bold. Given the 12Z Euro and the latest RAP developments, I feel more comfortable with saying: I THINK ASHEVILLE WILL FINALLY BREAK THE SNOW DROUGHT! Yes, that's right. A nice 2-4" of snow is my forecast for the area. Good luck to all! Good luck to you as well! I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok folks. I'm biting the bullet and going bold. Given the 12Z Euro and the latest RAP developments, I feel more comfortable with saying: I THINK ASHEVILLE WILL FINALLY BREAK THE SNOW DROUGHT! Yes, that's right. A nice 2-4" of snow is my forecast for the area. Good luck to all! Whoa!.....time to raid Ingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok folks. I'm biting the bullet and going bold. Given the 12Z Euro and the latest RAP developments, I feel more comfortable with saying: I THINK ASHEVILLE WILL FINALLY BREAK THE SNOW DROUGHT! Yes, that's right. A nice 2-4" of snow is my forecast for the area. Good luck to all! Whoa!.....time to raid Ingles. Lol It's not much to break the drought. Only need an inch to do that. Amazing how hard such a small amount has been to come by around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol It's not much to break the drought. Only need an inch to do that. Amazing how hard such a small amount has been to come by around here. It really has been a brutal last 3 winters HT! If we can somehow hit the high side of you forecast area wide there will be a lot of happy valley campers. One thing this snow drought has taught me is that, years from now, we will look back on the winters of 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 as two of the greatest back to back snow winters in the AVL area history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 People down here in the valley have forgotten what snow covered mountain roads are like at 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pardon the rudimentary explanation but, a phase or partial phase is when two pieces of energy (normally one to the N & one to the S) link up to create more dynamics & therefore a larger, wetter precip sheild. Lol just read that from Phil! Nice Don! Ok folks. I'm biting the bullet and going bold. Given the 12Z Euro and the latest RAP developments, I feel more comfortable with saying: I THINK ASHEVILLE WILL FINALLY BREAK THE SNOW DROUGHT! Yes, that's right. A nice 2-4" of snow is my forecast for the area. Good luck to all! Boooya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm afraid I'm too far north to get in on this one but I'm sure pulling for the Aville guys and points south. It so fun seeing how excited the people down south/east are. I really hope they get buried.. Btw, down to 19.8 with the wind @ 22, Going to be chilly in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 People down here in the valley have forgotten what snow covered mountain roads are like at 15 degrees. Less slippery than they are at 32º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm afraid I'm too far north to get in on this one but I'm sure pulling for the Aville guys and points south. It so fun seeing how excited the people down south/east are. I really hope they get buried.. Btw, down to 19.8 with the wind @ 22, Going to be chilly in the morning. Boy if I had a dollar for every time I have heard that from you........well you know the rest. Joe, you always seem to find a way to cash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Less slippery than they are at 32º. I guess let me rephrase that, people have forgotten what snow covered roads are like. Here's to hoping we end the snow drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Are you in the Snobird Mtns? YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 YES Another nice area here in mtns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow at the national radar!...look at that band of snow extending from the Front Range into the southern plains...Its really coming together...maybe sooner than later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP looks fantastic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lol It's not much to break the drought. Only need an inch to do that. Amazing how hard such a small amount has been to come by around here. Only an inch? An inch is like a foot any more. Hopefully, we can luck out for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Boy if I had a dollar for every time I have heard that from you........well you know the rest. Joe, you always seem to find a way to cash! Well, I ate at Bellagio's for lunch today and you know what's across the street so I'm stocked up and am prepared if we do get hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, I ate at Bellagio's for lunch today and you know what's across the street so I'm stocked up and am prepared if we do get hit! Fox Run vet?.....hahahah! & suddenly a mental image of a man walking the aisles with a grin on his face as the Jackson five verse "ABC....123" plays in the back round comes to mind. Sorry for getting off topic guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.