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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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jburns

jburns

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Tuesday: Rain. Areas of fog. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast wind 55 to 65 mph. Gusts to 85 mph decreasing to 75 mph in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of rain in the evening...then scattered rain and snow showers after midnight. Lows in the 30s. West wind 65 to 80 mph. 

 

 

I have to admit, I've never seen "patchy fog" occur in 65 to 80 mph winds.  Neat trick.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Awesome, video, Mike!  Wowza!

 

Off topic, but how do you get the Youtube video to embed in your post versus just be a link?

 

Thanks! Just play the video..hit right click..copy the url..then paste in your post.

 

For example..here is another..an old favorite of mine-this hail storm trashed my truck!

 

 

Or perhaps the Henryville EF4:

 

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Thanks!

 

Oh, and what I would give to have some sound on that hail video!  Quite intense.

 

It sounded like some crazy person with a baseball bat hitting the top of the truck as hard as he could. The sound was so loud/frightening that it scared my wife to tears!  :cry: On the bright side, telling the story to a potential buyer why the truck was covered with dents seemed to add to the appeal of the vehicle and sealed the purchase!

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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I have to admit, I've never seen "patchy fog" occur in 65 to 80 mph winds.  Neat trick.

 

Actually, now that I think about it-this is a rather interesting topic. Outside of the mtns, I have only seen patchy/full blown fog in windy conditions only a few times/special circumstances.

 

1) I  have seen fog with about 40 mph winds in the morning on the Plains of Eastern Colorado/Western Nebraska during upslope flow conditions.

 

2) On the South side of a very sharp warm front in Northern Kansas that was found right over I-70. Strong warm South winds under clear skies crashed into the cold air creating crazy fog on one side of the highway while is completely clear on the South side of it. Despite the wind-the fog bank was stationary. Later that day-particuarly violent tornadoes formed in the exact same location. 

 

3) In Michigan on several occasions.  It happens when windy, warm moist air blows across a snowpack. The worst is when the snowpack is spotty..as in none in the fields but present in the trees.  This creates a very dangerous patchy dense fog situation for drivers as visibility can drop to nothing when a highway is passing through a forest..this type of thing has resulted in huge pile-up on the interstates before.

 

I'm sure the same type of things occurs near either warm/cold large bodies of water.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Sounds like fun! I generally head down once a month from Michigan for 4 days at a minimum. I try to pick a time that looks interesting weatherwise.  For starters-I will have to show you my mountain top. You might be able to spot your place from it!

 

Speaking of Winter-here is a Winter forecast the snowlovers will enjoy. Seems in contrast to the many pessimistic forecasts that have come out of late.

Yep that would be great. My wife thinks I am a little crazy about the weather but she understands. I am training my son right know on how to spot things in the sky. He is 4 so it is funny listening to him talk. Ya WXsouth is a great forecaster. He post here when we have a possibility of a big event happening around here. He goes by Foothills.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Noticed that Blue Ridge Parkway Weather is now fully online for the Winter Season:

 

http://www.brpweather.com/forecast/Linville

 

You can register a profile to save your preferred stations along the Parkway.

 

Sensor and some webcams are available.

 

Raysweather has worked with the BRP on this project.

Awesome! This will come in handy this winter.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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I agree with Mike on the sensor locations.

Relying on the data for true Parkway conditions will certainly get someone in trouble very quick on the open sections of the BRP in winter.

Elevation is the name of the game when winter weather threatens.

 

The one saving grace is that the Park Service is pretty conservative about closing the Parkway. For instance, the worse section which is between Balsam and Cherokee(in particular-Waterrock Knob to the area in the vicinity of Soco Gap) was closed almost the entire Winter last year due to ice/mud slides. Based on weather records kept locally in my Subdivision-the Parkway sections near Waterrock Knob can pick up more than 150" of snow in a bad Winter. Winter sports enthusiasts actually wreck our Subdivision gate each Winter so they can access that portion of the Parkway at a high elevation. 

 

Looking at the BRP site this morning..and the weather forecast for Balsam: http://brpweather.com/forecast/Balsam%20Gap#simple2

 

And then compare to another site that develops specific forecasts for Mtn peaks..in this case Waterrock Knob:

 

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Waterrock-Knob/forecasts/1918

 

Couple of neat things stick out in this example...Balsam should reach 60 degrees on Sunday..Waterrock Knob only 45.  A traveler using the Balsam info might actually contemplate having a picnic on Waterrock Knob since the Balsam location is the closest weather forecast available. (My experience is the average traveler isn't very knowledgable about the vagaries of atmospheric lapse rates!) Another thing..tonight..Waterrock Knob may have sustained winds of 40 mph..vs the 10 to 20 mph at Balsam..again high impact weather at the Waterrock Knob Visitor Center vs a non-event at Balsam..no where on the BRP site suggests that wind is going to be a problem tonight.

 

This site shows current conditions at all the various high elevations sites in NC..far far more useful than anything on the BRP site and much more representative of Parkway conditions. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/observe/ECONet.php  (Note: The Mt Mitchell site which takes weather observations at the 6200 foot level is almost always within 1 degree of the temperature of my mtn top at 6130 feet based on my own observations.) 

 

One idea that I just thought of would be to use graphics similar to the ones this site uses:

 

http://www.blueridgeparkwaydaily.com/blue-ridge-parkway-fall-colors-tracker/

 

Perhaps using color shades to depict high temperatures, wind, fog, precip, ice etc..plus giving specific milepost numbers on where to expect certain types of weather. Re: Wind..due to extensive forests along the Parkway-there are only a few wind prone areas..they could depict those on map. It took me 5 minutes to come up with these ideas about improving the site. Hopefully, somebody there views this discussion thread and works to improve the site.

 

(Note: I just heard yesterday that NASA might have an extra anemometer laying around. If so-it would be installed on my mtn top in the near future and be tied in with the existing weather instruments-transmitted live over the internet. Very cool-in particular because that location will likely be the windiest reporting station in NC during SW wind events due to its high elevation and unique topography effects versus other reporting sites.) 

post-9361-0-67193400-1383822950_thumb.jp

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Met1985

Met1985

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The 12Z Euro is out.

 

Talking about eye candy!!!  :sled:  

 

I don't even know where to start with this?!!!

 

Just looking at this forecast product..model temps at 850 translate into single digit temps in the highest elevations with snow and wind. 

 

I don't know yet if I want to attempt to make it to my mtn top to watch this potential storm or not....probably freeze my butt off if I do! 

 

Note..the NWS out Greenville has this to say, "THIS DOES HAVE THE APPEARANCE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT FOR THE NC MTNS"

Ya Mike the Euro solution would be massive for the favored NW flow areas. It just crushes the boarder counties.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I pulled this from the November discussion thread from GSP.

 

PARSING THE VARIOUS THERMODYNAMIC SIGNALS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CREATES QUITE THE INTERESTING CONUNDRUM...AS ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE ON ONE THING...INTENSE COLD ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SIGNALS THE
POTENTIAL FOR P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT SOME POINT DURING MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AS RAPID
COOLING OF THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS
SCENARIO...ONE WOULD PRIMARILY EXPECT A RAIN VS SNOW ISSUE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC COLD AIR VS. FORCING FOR UVV RACE...A RACE
THAT THE COLD AIR TYPICALLY LOSES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
REGION. IT IS JUST VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO SEE
ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER WHEN THE COLD AIR IS
NOT ALREADY IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF UVV. THEREFORE...PTYPE
WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH A STRONG NOD TOWARD CLIMO...WITH -SN OR
-RA/-SN IN THE MTNS...-RA/-SN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
EAST OF THE MTNS...AND ALL -RA ELSEWHERE. HAVING SAID THAT...THIS
DOES HAVE THE APPEARANCE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/SYNOPTICALLY
ENHANCED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT FOR THE NC MTNS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
IS A SITUATION THAT WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Not sure about a huge a storm but it does look favorable for a decent NWFE for next week.

Likely I would say..especially in far NW NC mountain areas. Looking at guidance-the GFS solutions should be discarded. I think we are going to end up with a storm at least somewhat similar to the Euro model depiction.

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K4CF

K4CF

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Likely I would say..especially in far NW NC mountain areas. Looking at guidance-the GFS solutions should be discarded. I think we are going to end up with a storm at least somewhat similar to the Euro model depiction.

Looks like none of the CMC Ensembles are on board with the Euro...just a frontal passage

 

 

*UPDATE*...12Z Euro has LP tracking east into the Atlantic...no boom

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Met1985

Met1985

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Likely I would say..especially in far NW NC mountain areas. Looking at guidance-the GFS solutions should be discarded. I think we are going to end up with a storm at least somewhat similar to the Euro model depiction.

Just looking at the 18z things do look likely for the mountains I would say for a significant event. Also look at how cols it is going to get. This HP means business. Not really sure what the EURO has for us.

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