WxBlue Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Now that there's potential for more than 1 inch, did an email go out about the >1 inch competition for AMS? I haven't gotten anything yet. I did get the email on 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS doesn't look good...there's a cutoff around Charlotte. I'll cling to my SREF ~15 inch plume and hope something goes right for us overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the GFS still gives Asheville around an inch of snow, lets wait to see the GEFS before we put all hope in the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the GFS still gives Asheville around an inch of snow, lets wait to see the GEFS before we put all hope in the SREF What time does the GEFS usually come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the GFS still gives Asheville around an inch of snow, lets wait to see the GEFS before we put all hope in the SREF Agree. There's still Euro and the ensembles too, but SREF and 18z GFS might have been false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the GEFS mean is a small improvement over the GFS, but not the major storm we're hoping for. It looks like AVL is in the .10-.25 qpf range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the GEFS mean is a small improvement over the GFS, but not the major storm we're hoping for. It looks like AVL is in the .10-.25 qpf range. With likely great ratios that would still be over an inch to maybe 4 inches verbatim. Still have a little time for this to trend west, tomorrows 12Z runs will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 With likely great ratios that would still be over an inch to maybe 4 inches verbatim. Still have a little time for this to trend west, tomorrows 12Z runs will be key This is true. FWIW, it looks like we could be closer to the .25 inches as the cutoff runs through Henderson county. I suppose it should have been expected that we'd get some pull-back after the 18z GFS. Overall though the trend is still to the west, so with any luck we'll at least get the fringes of the storm. It will be interesting to see if the euro has a significant shift tonight like the GFS. My guess is the euro comes in similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ya the trends are good but not jumping on this yet. Still a lot of model runs to go through. Would love for this to jump west big time but I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ya the trends are good but not jumping on this yet. Still a lot of model runs to go through. Would love for this to jump west beg time but I dint see that happening. Why Ricky Ricardo, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Why Ricky Ricardo, is that you? Lol thanks jburns I needed a laugh. Trying to type on my kindle and auto correct do not go well together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol thanks jburns I needed a laugh. Trying to type on my kindle and auto correct do not go well together. Been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Been there. Thanks I just take it one day at a time. That is about all I can do. Would not wish this on anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 03 SREF looks pretty good. A tenth to a quarter inch liquid all the way to the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Heads up for the SW mountains as they just issued a freezing rain advisory this morning until noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like this morning's GFS run has trended back west which helps us quite a bit. Not expecting anything out of this but would be nice just having snow falling. Yes this run is much better for the mountains. Still very cautious but hoping the GFS has something ups it's sleeve for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like this morning's GFS run has trended back west which helps us quite a bit. Not expecting anything out of this but would be nice just having snow falling. Yes this run is much better for the mountains. Still very cautious but hoping the GFS has something ups it's sleeve for us. Good morning 85...looks like this one's going down to the wire for the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good morning 85...looks like this one's going down to the wire for the mtns Good morning sir! Yes it does. Just keep trending west and we will be ok. I wouldn't mind it snowing and about 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Agreed, KC4F. Great pics! Thanks for sharing! Is that ridge next to your house? As in, can you walk out your backdoor and out to that bald? Or do you have to drive to get there? I ask because I would love to be able to walk off my back deck and just up a bald mountain. How awesome is that?! You have phenomenal views from there. I was able to hike across Roan High Bald over Labor Day with family and friends. It's a great spot for flying a kite! But, it appears your bald would do just fine, as well. Yes...This ridge is about a 3-min walk from the house...I love the Roan High bald too...If you want another nice drive and parking area with trails with a 360o grassy bald but probably unknown to those outside of Mitchell county, try taking NC 197 out of Burnsville or out of Red Hill here. Follow all the way to TN state line where NC 197 becomes TN 395. If coming from NC side, take gravel rd to the right at the state line. This is called Beauty Spot Gap Rd and it parallels the Appy Trail. It's a good road and two vehicles can pass each other with care...lol. No 4WD needed and no visitor fees and no facilities/water! It is very isolated...Ive been up there lots of times and at most may have met a half-dozen cars on the busiest day. It can be a great day trip and you can be in Erwin, TN in 15 minutes if you wanna get some fast food to take with you up there! I can give more details if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Beautiful pics K4CF. I love those beautiful mountain balds. Those are awesome pics KC4F. Great pics, KC4F! Make me really wish freshmen on campus are allow to have cars so I can go exploring around WNC! As for SREF, I'm little skepical about the chances here in Asheville but mountains had already fool me enough so who knows Beautiful pics and country. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good morning sir! Yes it does. Just keep trending west and we will be ok. I wouldn't mind it snowing and about 15 degrees. That would be awesome...and thanks for the heads-up on the freezing rain advisory...I was getting ready to start my bus route this morning when I checked the thread one last time and saw your post...now our schools are on 2-hr delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah '85 just saw that 06z gfs looks like our precip should begin pretty early. I think we are in for a good 2-4 inches maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 That would be awesome...and thanks for the heads-up on the freezing rain advisory...I was getting ready to start my bus route this morning when I checked the thread one last time and saw your post...now our schools are on 2-hr delay Ya we have some light ice here at work on the vehicles but no delay strangely. Yeah '85 just saw that 06z gfs looks like our precip should begin pretty early. I think we are in for a good 2-4 inches maybe more. Ya maybe still very skeptical but the GFS has been pretty consistent on giving us a bit more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That would be awesome...and thanks for the heads-up on the freezing rain advisory...I was getting ready to start my bus route this morning when I checked the thread one last time and saw your post...now our schools are on 2-hr delayhow long does it take you to get to Erwin or Johnson city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 how long does it take you to get to Erwin or Johnson city? 25 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Radar filling in over on KMRX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 25 mininteresting; might wife and I have been looking to move up to that area in east Tennessee in the mtns. But she will need to work in Johnson city at the hospital. I will be looking for a great upslope area but not too far of a drive for her to get to work. We would prefer to be on the Tennessee side, (no state income taxes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Look at this 1hr temp change @ KAVL: 27 08:54 N 8 10.00 Fair CLR 47 32 56% 43 NA 29.86 1010.9 27 07:54 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 33 26 75% NA NA 29.85 1011.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the 12Z NAM was a swing and a miss for most of western North Carolina. But of course it is the NAM, and in my book it is one of the most useless models as of late (like the last 12 months). So I would put very little stock in anything it says outside of 24 hours out. I would really watch the GFS and Euro today. Use a blend of their solutions for a good forecast. More to come later. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah '85 just saw that 06z gfs looks like our precip should begin pretty early. I think we are in for a good 2-4 inches maybe more. What did you see on the gfs that I missed? I saw a qpf of less than a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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