ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Those are awesome pics KC4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Agreed, KC4F. Great pics! Thanks for sharing! Is that ridge next to your house? As in, can you walk out your backdoor and out to that bald? Or do you have to drive to get there? I ask because I would love to be able to walk off my back deck and just up a bald mountain. How awesome is that?! You have phenomenal views from there. I was able to hike across Roan High Bald over Labor Day with family and friends. It's a great spot for flying a kite! But, it appears your bald would do just fine, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Great pics, KC4F! Make me really wish freshmen on campus are allow to have cars so I can go exploring around WNC! As for SREF, I'm little skepical about the chances here in Asheville but mountains had already fool me enough so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Great pics, KC4F! Make me really wish freshmen on campus are allow to have cars so I can go exploring around WNC! As for SREF, I'm little skepical about the chances here in Asheville but mountains had already fool me enough so who knows Yeah they shouldn't really be taken at face value but more of an indication of how many possible solutions are available. These tend to vary a lot so I would stick with just looking at the average, which is the bolded black line. If you look at Fayetteville's right now you will see good agreement between members for significant snowfall. With that said, this appears to be a very complicated system with many players on the field. The 18z nam 500mb vort map had a very strong area just entering the mtns. @ hr 84 so that could suggest an area of redevelopment. I think a lot of things still need to be played out and the 18z lag was a good indicator to me. I am not saying we are going to get a great snow but the door isn't completely shut and I still believe we see some flakes from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Folks, just to put out a brief update for snow chances this week: grim. New SREF coming in super dry for us, with the bulk of the moisture way south and east. While I would not be surprised to see a very small NW shift, the main baroclinic zone will still be pretty far south for us. As a result, I fully expect the snow drought to continue for AVL and other mountain locations. If we get snow, it will be a dusting or less. Bank on the "less." Once this passes, temps look to rebound very nicely in the first week of February. 12Z Euro showing highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s! Finally time to give those oil furnaces and heat pumps a much-needed break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Folks, just to put out a brief update for snow chances this week: grim. New SREF coming in super dry for us, with the bulk of the moisture way south and east. While I would not be surprised to see a very small NW shift, the main baroclinic zone will still be pretty far south for us. As a result, I fully expect the snow drought to continue for AVL and other mountain locations. If we get snow, it will be a dusting or less. Bank on the "less." Once this passes, temps look to rebound very nicely in the first week of February. 12Z Euro showing highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s! Finally time to give those oil furnaces and heat pumps a much-needed break. I am getting close to being a winter hater. We are 2 months from heading for 4 years without an inch of snow..... and the prior 2 winters before that, we had a double digit year stretch of not getting a 6 inch snow. We just had a year with 75 inches of rain and we can't buy an inch of snow. Give me nice warm mornings and sunny warm days. Maybe I need to move to Florida where I should never expect to get winter weather. Oh, wait a minute ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah they shouldn't really be taken at face value but more of an indication of how many possible solutions are available. These tend to vary a lot so I would stick with just looking at the average, which is the bolded black line. If you look at Fayetteville's right now you will see good agreement between members for significant snowfall. With that said, this appears to be a very complicated system with many players on the field. The 18z nam 500mb vort map had a very strong area just entering the mtns. @ hr 84 so that could suggest an area of redevelopment. I think a lot of things still need to be played out and the 18z lag was a good indicator to me. I am not saying we are going to get a great snow but the door isn't completely shut and I still believe we see some flakes from this system. Even though the mean is 2 inches, lot of members still do not like our chances. I do agree that the game isn't over for us in Western NC, but we're down to the last inning with this one. This snow drought got to point that UNCA AMS chapter is having a contest for the closest date to the next "1 inch+ storm" here. It's good thing I decided to go with mid-February instead of this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 As we wait to see if the models trend NW for Wednesday, here's some pics my wife took as she, my son, and I (and "Boone" the dog!) walked out on the ridge Wednesday evening... Pic 1 is looking North...it was about 18o but no wind Pic 2 is looking West toward the impending arctic front coming in Pic 3 has the two Roan high peaks on the upper right Pic 4 is a zoom on the peaks Pic 5 is looking southwest toward the AVL folks! Beautiful pics and country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am getting close to being a winter hater. We are 2 months from heading for 4 years without an inch of snow..... and the prior 2 winters before that, we had a double digit year stretch of not getting a 6 inch snow. We just had a year with 75 inches of rain and we can't buy an inch of snow. Give me nice warm mornings and sunny warm days. Maybe I need to move to Florida where I should never expect to get winter weather. Oh, wait a minute ......... ... and 18Z GFS sucks me back in until 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It is 18z GFS so take that run with grain of salt... but that run put Asheville back into the game in term of getting more than inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It is 18z GFS so take that run with grain of salt... but that run put Asheville back into the game in term of getting more than inch of snow. If we can manage to get moisture, ratios should be high here. It looks very cold. We should get a nice powdery snow..... but your sodium chloride statement rings so very true, and is probably the best thing to lean on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If we can manage to get moisture, ratios should be high here. It looks very cold. We should get a nice powdery snow..... but your sodium chloride statement rings so very true, and is probably the best thing to lean on. Majority of meteorologists that I follow back home in Raleigh seem to think there will be a sharp cutoff line somewhere in Triangle. I think 18z GFS is the distant outlier and we're not getting much here still. I love snow, but it's hard to see it happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lol the coastal areas could see more snow in one storm than some of us this whole winter have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z meteostar has .28 inches falling at KAVL mainly with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z meteostar has .28 inches falling at KAVL mainly with temps in the teens. What exactly is meteostar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What exactly is meteostar? It provides data for the 16 day GFS. Here is the link: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kavl The airport code is all that you need to change the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol the coastal areas could see more snow in one storm than some of us have seen in the last 3 winters! Changed the above for you 85! Just got caught up on 8 pages of the storm thread & I must say that early on I felt like I wanted to puke. I am happy for the low country guys but, we have been paying some really heavy cold weather dues with not much to show for it in the valleys!!! The 18Z has what little hope I had lost restored. Still time for a trend & I don't want to wish peeps get no snow but give us due payers a break! All I am asking for is a decent 5-6" not the sweet spot. My dam* snow shovel is full of rust....I would like to use it again in this lifetime!!! Whew....sorry for the rant fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Changed the above for you 85! Just got caught up on 8 pages of the storm thread & I must say that early on I felt like I wanted to puke. I am happy for the low country guys but, we have been paying some really heavy cold weather dues with not much to show for it in the valleys!!! The 18Z has what little hope I had lost restored. Still time for a trend & I don't want to wish peeps get no snow but give us due payers a break! All I am asking for is a decent 5-6" not the sweet spot. My dam* snow shovel is full of rust....I would like to use it again in this lifetime!!! Whew....sorry for the rant fellas. My wife has banned me from using a snow shovel again in this lifetime. I decided not to argue. Instead I bought a nice four wheel SUV I keep in an attached garage. Never trapped, no need to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My wife has banned me from using a snow shovel again in this lifetime. I decided not to argue. Instead I bought a nice four wheel SUV I keep in an attached garage. Never trapped, no need to shovel. Don is probably screwed up like me. I get a certain joy of being in the cold and shoveling. I usually shovel my neighbor's driveways. Weird, yes !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don is probably screwed up like me. I get a certain joy of being in the cold and shoveling. I usually shovel my neighbor's driveways. Weird, yes !!!!! I used too. My defibrillator implant might disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don is probably screwed up like me. I get a certain joy of being in the cold and shoveling. I usually shovel my neighbor's driveways. Weird, yes !!!!! Affirmative! unless it's like a 8-1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Changed the above for you 85! Just got caught up on 8 pages of the storm thread & I must say that early on I felt like I wanted to puke. I am happy for the low country guys but, we have been paying some really heavy cold weather dues with not much to show for it in the valleys!!! The 18Z has what little hope I had lost restored. Still time for a trend & I don't want to wish peeps get no snow but give us due payers a break! All I am asking for is a decent 5-6" not the sweet spot. My dam* snow shovel is full of rust....I would like to use it again in this lifetime!!! Whew....sorry for the rant fellas. I think we're all in the same boat...still time for a trend, but not much. We'll have to hope the 18z was on track and the trend continues on the 0z. It's still quite the long-shot without backup from any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 21z SREF has AVL and much of the mountains with a >50% chance of more than 4 inches of snow. 30-50% chance of over 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 21z SREF has AVL and much of the mountains with a >50% chance of more than 4 inches of snow. 30-50% chance of over 6 inches. What an amazing tread toward Western North Carolina. However, we'll have to see if NAM and Euro jump the bandwagon and for the models to stick with this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What an amazing tread toward Western North Carolina. However, we'll have to see if NAM and Euro jump the bandwagon and for the models to stick with this idea. The NAM is rolling in now...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A very nice trend for us Asheville people on 21z plume's. I wouldn't close the book on that 1" just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the 0z NAM took a step in the right direction, but still isn't going to cut it for us. Tomorrow morning should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the 0z NAM took a step in the right direction, but still isn't going to cut it for us. Tomorrow morning should be interesting. Wouldn't be too concerned, it missed the phase and thats what all our snow depends on. It looked a whole lot better then the 18z so the fact that it didn't trend towards it or even worse is a good sign. Will be interesting to see if the gfs shows some consistency in the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A very nice trend for us Asheville people on 21z plume's. I wouldn't close the book on that 1" just yet Well the 0z NAM took a step in the right direction, but still isn't going to cut it for us. Tomorrow morning should be interesting. Yup, the game isn't over for us in AVL. Will be interesting to see what 0z GFS and Euro got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yup, the game isn't over for us in AVL. Will be interesting to see what 0z GFS and Euro got. Now that there's potential for more than 1 inch, did an email go out about the >1 inch competition for AMS? I haven't gotten anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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