Hvward Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest nam run is really juicy for the border counties and if it verifies I think we should get our inch in Asheville, well at least downtown that is. 21z SREF plumes are averaging just over 1" @ KAVL. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 It is interesting that GSP has not upgraded us or downgraded us yet to a warning or an advisory since we are under 12 hours from this event starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Also the latest NAM looks better right along the boarder also. But I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think the trends on the latest Nam & Rap look great for you 85! You are more than likely going meet GSP's WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think the trends on the latest Nam & Rap look great for you 85! You are more than likely going meet GSP's WSW criteria. I hope so but these last events have really burnt me. It does look encouraging though. Some great looking moisture coming in from the NW flow. Models may be underplaying that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hmm... 0z gfs catching the nam's drift. Precip seems to last for a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Off to bed hope the trend remains our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh, just got back from dinner and figured there'd be a page of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh, just got back from dinner and figured there'd be a page of posts. Lol. Well how was Dinner and well things are trending our way. it is about time to nowcast and say let it fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lol. Well how was Dinner and well things are trending our way. it is about time to nowcast and say let it fly. Great. But the dude can't grill a steak. He thinks he can, but he can"t. Time for some positivity in this thread! I'll take what I get and be happy. It's going to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Great. But the dude can't grill a steak. He thinks he can, but he can"t. Time for some positivity in this thread! I'll take what I get and be happy. It's going to snow! Lol well always said if you want it done right o it yourself! Yes I agree it is going to snow whether is snows one inch or 6 inches. At least we will have it. Goodnight all and be safe out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC502 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS MORNING....AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSLATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.MOIST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OFTHE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN TENNESSEE AND NORTHCAROLINA...PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHICH IS LIKELY TOBECOME HEAVY IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH ININTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTOEARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALLBELOW ZERO. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT INWIDESPREAD BLACK ICE.NCZ033-048>050-211815-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0003.140121T1200Z-140122T1100Z//O.CON.KGSP.WC.Y.0004.140121T1800Z-140122T1700Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE502 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY......WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOONTO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHCAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOWCAUSING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. STRONG WINDGUSTS CAUSING A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. VERY LOWWIND CHILL.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING...PEAKING INCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THENDIMINISHING TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN 5 BELOWWILL WORK DOWN FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THETENNESSEE BORDER.* IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE ROADS TO BECOMESLIPPERY OR IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY ON STEEP MOUNTAINS.SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO FALLEN ELECTRICALLINES. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO BEOUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS.* WIND CHILL...FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW...WITH THE LOWEST WINDCHILLS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELLPHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF ANEMERGENCY.A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDSWILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT INFROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT ANDGLOVES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC502 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS MORNING....AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSLATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.MOIST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OFTHE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN TENNESSEE AND NORTHCAROLINA...PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHICH IS LIKELY TOBECOME HEAVY IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH ININTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTOEARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALLBELOW ZERO. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT INWIDESPREAD BLACK ICE.NCZ053-059-062-211815-/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0005.140121T1200Z-140122T1100Z//O.CON.KGSP.WC.Y.0004.140121T1800Z-140122T1700Z/BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN502 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY......WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOONTO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN JACKSON AND MACON COUNTIES.* HAZARDS...SNOW...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND VERY WINDYCONDITIONS.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE THISMORNING. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THISAFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONSLATE TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AT HIGHERELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH AFEW HIGHER AMOUNTS.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ASTEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL...BLACK ICE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPON MANY ROADS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO FALLENELECTRICAL LINES. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUSTO BE OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS.* WIND CHILL...FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW...WITH THE LOWEST WINDCHILLS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MEANS THAT REFREEZING OFROADS WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREADBLACK ICE. BE PREPARED FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. SOME ROADSTHAT APPEAR CLEAR MAY BE COVERED BY A THIN LAYER OF ICE.A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDSWILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT INFROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT ANDGLOVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I did not notice last night, but Ray with RaysWeather decided on 6" accumulation at the highest elevations in the High Country for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE502 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET......WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOONTO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF HAYWOOD...SWAIN...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW CAUSING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. STRONG WIND GUSTS CAUSING A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. GUSTY WINDS COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILL.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN 5 BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO WORK DOWN FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING BRYSON CITY AND ROBBINSVILLE.* IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SLIPPERY OR IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY ON STEEP MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO FALLEN ELECTRICAL LINES. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS.* WIND CHILL...FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS..WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest from NWS GSP is here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/StormTotalSnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lot of good stuff for us this morning. We pretty much have area wide Winter storm warning and advisories. We also have wind advisories and wind chill advisories for most. I have noticed the NWS have tapered my temp down even further this week also. Saying a low of 0 tomorrow morning. Will probably be below zero again. Temps falling all day today also, If this plays out to what it could this is going to be a pretty nasty travel day especially for the evening commute. But us weather weenies will be glowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think we a staring at our best shot this season for snow. I am jusy surprised we didn't lose the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think we a staring at our best shot this season for snow. I am jusy surprised we didn't lose the trend. My knees started knocking a little bit yest. but, I think as minor as it might be most of the mountain crew is going to have white ground. Would love to see KAVL break the 1" barrier but, not sure that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My knees started knocking a little bit yest. but, I think as minor as it might be most of the mountain crew is going to have white ground. Would love to see KAVL break the 1" barrier but, not sure that happens. I think that we will have some good NWF snow on into the night. Hopefully us not hyping this will let us all cash in. Ha that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck Joaquin, Hvward and Don...I hope you guys get it good! 26o here...frost with low clouds rolling in now Campsite @ 4200' says 40o up there! Must have some sort of temp inversion going on. If you're still around, what temp you got Met85? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck Joaquin, Hvward and Don...I hope you guys get it good! 26o here...frost with low clouds rolling in now Campsite @ 4200' says 40o up there! Must have some sort of temp inversion going on. If you're still around, what temp you got Met85? Thanks K4CF, You look to cash rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck all ya mountain boys. I will be in the lee side watching the clouds stop at the ridge line from my house! Hope you all cash in today and tonight.!! Bundle up:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck Joaquin, Hvward and Don...I hope you guys get it good! 26o here...frost with low clouds rolling in now Campsite @ 4200' says 40o up there! Must have some sort of temp inversion going on. If you're still around, what temp you got Met85? Thanks K4CF I hope you get 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck all ya mountain boys. I will be in the lee side watching the clouds stop at the ridge line from my house! Hope you all cash in today and tonight.!! Bundle up:) Yuck! but, it's gotten pretty bad up here when the Mnt crew is excited for this event. A couple of years ago this thing would have gotten about 5 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My knees started knocking a little bit yest. but, I think as minor as it might be most of the mountain crew is going to have white ground. Would love to see KAVL break the 1" barrier but, not sure that happens. Snow drought should continue at the KAVL site. SREF plumes are .5" of snow or less on the average. Clipper looks to be underperforming so far based on output from the Mid-Atlantic and Blacksburg areas. This should not be a big deal for the mountain valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow drought should continue at the KAVL site. SREF plumes are .5" of snow or less on the average. Clipper looks to be underperforming so far based on output from the Mid-Atlantic and Blacksburg areas. This should not be a big deal for the mountain valleys. HT, where you using a 11-1 ratio or higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HT, where you using a 11-1 ratio or higher? In this case, the ratios won't matter. You can pick a 20:1 or 30:1 ratio, but the fact is the moisture just isn't there. Most models are coming in with QPF liquid equivalent under 0.02". That's just not gonna cut it. For the higher elevations, it is a different story, as even a .1" liquid will be 2-4" of snow. Just not in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good luck Joaquin, Hvward and Don...I hope you guys get it good! 26o here...frost with low clouds rolling in now Campsite @ 4200' says 40o up there! Must have some sort of temp inversion going on. If you're still around, what temp you got Met85? We are at 37 degrees right know but we are up from a low of 24 degrees last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow has started here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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