NavarreDon Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Though he didn't say no snow, I couldn't imagine heading to next January w/o one single snow exceeding 1 inch closing in on 4 years.(well, at the airport anyway) 75 inches of precip and we can't get one measly inch of snow. I sound like Brick and Fritschy combined... but I feel their frustration.... and this was proceeded by almost 70 inches(at my house) in a winter and a half. Oh well, I guess we will see where it heads. I would rather be warm instead of $300.00 power bills and very little snow. Okay, I'm done. Trust me Jason when I say.....we all feel your pain! We have paid dearly for those monster winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 hey if we can't have snow I'm looking forward to 50 degrees tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can't believe I'm going to say this but, this is a decent look. Let's hope it trends wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can't believe I'm going to say this but, this is a decent look. Let's hope it trends wetter. Lol I will believe it when it is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 New 21hr SREF plumes show 2" in Asheville for the 21st but I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can't believe I'm going to say this but, this is a decent look. Let's hope it trends wetter. You jinx us last time with your pretty little maps. But this one is a little different. Trajectories are better for the upslope areas. And just by observations in the past, when arctic air is behind it, every bit of moisture will be rung out. I expect ratios by Tuesday afternoon to be in the 20's. Won't be much but something maybe to hold us over. Seems like I've said that a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You jinx us last time with your pretty little maps. But this one is a little different. Trajectories are better for the upslope areas. And just by observations in the past, when arctic air is behind it, every bit of moisture will be rung out. I expect ratios by Tuesday afternoon to be in the 20's. Won't be much but something maybe to hold us over. Seems like I've said that a lot this winter. Hahahaha! Nice to know I'm loved Joe....now pass me some of that bourbon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 You jinx us last time with your pretty little maps. But this one is a little different. Trajectories are better for the upslope areas. And just by observations in the past, when arctic air is behind it, every bit of moisture will be rung out. I expect ratios by Tuesday afternoon to be in the 20's. Won't be much but something maybe to hold us over. Seems like I've said that a lot this winter. Ya this looks more like something we can work with. Still these clippers are killing me. All this cold air an nothing to show more it. I would rather it be 30 and pouring the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ya this looks more like something we can work with. Still these clippers are killing me. All this cold air an nothing to show more it. I would rather it be 30 and pouring the snow.I forgot what a synoptic snowstorm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hahahaha! Nice to know I'm loved Joe....now pass me some of that bourbon!!! It's all gone. I think the maid drank it. Ya this looks more like something we can work with. Still these clippers are killing me. All this cold air an nothing to show more it. I would rather it be 30 and pouring the snow. Yeah, but cold is part of the season so I want it to be in the winter. I've always said, one of the neatest things about our climate is that we have four very distinctive seasons. The cold sets up a great spring. But I know what you mean, snow is part of it too for us. So when it doesn't much, I feel cheated. But, if that's all I've got to worry about, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's all gone. I think the maid drank it. Yeah, but cold is part of the season so I want it to be in the winter. I've always said, one of the neatest things about our climate is that we have four very distinctive seasons. The cold sets up a great spring. But I know what you mean, snow is part of it too for us. So when it doesn't much, I feel cheated. But, if that's all I've got to worry about, I'll take it! Lol ya good point. I love the cold to. I hate it when it should be cold and it is like 50 degrees. The cold shot we got earlier this month was awesome and the one coming up looks good to but just wish we could get a sizable snow. I don't know but my gut is telling me this March is going to be rocking. We have had some of our best snowstorms in March. I think the NAO may finally come to cooperate in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We shall see. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC407 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS BEGINNING TONIGHT....AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSEARLY TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.MOIST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OFTHE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN TENNESSEE AND NORTHCAROLINA...PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHICH IS LIKELY TOBECOME HEAVY IN SOME AREAS. WHILE THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH ININTENSITY LATE TOMORROW...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLYWEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We must be missing the WAA mixing over night & this morning. Pretty big temp variance between KAVL and Weaverville. It's 32° there and 18° imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We must be missing the WAA mixing over night & this morning. Pretty big temp variance between KAVL and Weaverville. It's 32° there and 18° imby!its 15 here. Bare ground too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 its 15 here. Bare ground too! Micro climates of the S Apps working hard this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 thought Asheville would be under a winter weather advisory gsp has 1 to 2 inches for buncombe county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 thought Asheville would be under a winter weather advisory gsp has 1 to 2 inches for buncombe county Not the time for Adv or Warnings hence the Watch for the boarder counties. If things don't trend drier they will be issued this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA407 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHTTHROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW CAUSING TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. STRONG WIND GUSTS CAUSING A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AROUND NOON TOMORROW...AND BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND NORTH OF THE BLACK MOUNTAINS.* IMPACTS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SLIPPERY OR IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY ON STEEP MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO FALLEN ELECTRICAL LINES.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 We must be missing the WAA mixing over night & this morning. Pretty big temp variance between KAVL and Weaverville. It's 32° there and 18° imby! Nice Don! Ya went down to 14 degrees here this morning. Not really sure about the snow chances but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NWS GSP Graphic for Winter Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 The latest NAM looks ok. Really not wanting to jump into this. This although looks like a true NW flow event though with an arctic blast behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Maybe it's just me, but GSP looks a little aggressive with this event for non-upslope areas. I think that the snow drought for AVL continues. Upslope areas should do well but I don't see the snow showers accumulating much in the lower valleys. Remember, last 1" event for KAVL was January 10, 2011. And so it continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This event is weak. All the forcing is well north of us. Maybe 2-4 at best for the upslope areas. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow...woke up to a WSW! You guys may be right about GSP but yesterday's 12Z NAM showed about 6 hrs of light precip over the mtns. Today's 12Z is showing 18-hrs of precip now! Same deal with the 12Z GFS runs...big difference. The RGEM/GGEM are always on board with snow..lol. Maybe the 18Z runs will keep the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow...woke up to a WSW! You guys may be right about GSP but yesterday's 12Z NAM showed about 6 hrs of light precip over the mtns. Today's 12Z is showing 18-hrs of precip now! Same deal with the 12Z GFS runs...big difference. The RGEM/GGEM are always on board with snow..lol. Maybe the 18Z runs will keep the trend! Cold air/higher ratios? That's a possibility too. That's my attempt to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cold air/higher ratios? That's a possibility too. That's my attempt to be positive. I agree with you joaquin...Also the GFS has performed the best with these clippers this year and its on board with this one...just checked the SREF mean, it's not on board for the mtns However, a couple of the SREF ensembles explode over central/eastern NC if that Low tracks a lil further east before turning NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody know what model this graphic is based on? Or could it be a forecast depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody know what model this graphic is based on? Or could it be a forecast depiction. Joe, Im guessing the 6Z NAM/GFS runs...leaning more toward the NAM...in my humble opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody know what model this graphic is based on? Or could it be a forecast depiction. Hey Joe. How's it going over there brother? The NWS GSP graphic depiction is based off of their local grids output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 getting bad when hope for a inch of snow which I thought we would get but I don't think we'll get an inch, pretty bad guys. I did love today 63 degrees IMBY. one of these days we'll get the big one out of the gulf, don't know if it will be this year. starting to give up hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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