2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

[calculus1]

franklin we've got stuff going on at the house saturday with folks coming up from charlotte and down from lexington.  is it possible this could be a descent snow for KAVL?

 

Most snowfall that I have witnessed has been of the descending variety. 

 

Perhaps up-slope snow could be interpreted as ascending snowfall?

 

Seriously, fritschy, I think your family would not have too serious of a problem getting into Asheville.  Any snow that falls should be more of the get-out-and-enjoy-it type rather than the traffic-snarling type.  But, you never know.  Just tell them to take it nice and easy if they've never driven in snow before.

[HurricaneTracker]

Well, the 12Z Euro is in, and for the system tomorrow it looks like the NAM is the outlier.  Both the GFS and Euro are way drier than the NAM.  Neither of those models get the trough negatively tilted fast enough for decent snow in the mountains.  While all models produce some snow, the global models are by far the driest.

 

Since we have 2 of 3 models going progressive and dry, it is prudent to temper back the excitement and go with 0-1" for the valleys and 1-2" for the highest ridgetops.  No upslope snow post-front either.  It looks like KAVL snow-drought will continue.

 

The global models also delay the best snow until after 1pm tomorrow, so there should be no interruptions to school bus schedules.

[NGTim]

I dunno...GSP has just backed off the totals for Tues/Wed too...putting the sleds back in the barn

 

"Overall snowfall amounts have decreased for the NC/tenn

border region compared to the previous forecast with most locations

expected to receive 1 to 3 inches through Thursday morning"

 

yes I've noticed that once he puts something out there he doesn't change it much.  I got to say I enjoy reading him.. I am hoping he has to update, as I have a vested interest in what its going to be doing Sat up at Winterplace.  I will be driving up fri night, and it will be great to see some flakes on the drive, but am also hoping something changes and Saturday is interesting as well.  Can't remember where I saw it but I know I saw someone talking about Saturday night.  Hopefully this doesn't come across as a IMBY question, but has anyone see anything in the models that would indicate a disturbance coming thru Sat or Sat night as well?  And, isn't it entireyly possible that this far out, there really could be a lot of options still on the table for this weekend. 

[HurricaneTracker]

yes I've noticed that once he puts something out there he doesn't change it much.  I got to say I enjoy reading him.. I am hoping he has to update, as I have a vested interest in what its going to be doing Sat up at Winterplace.  I will be driving up fri night, and it will be great to see some flakes on the drive, but am also hoping something changes and Saturday is interesting as well.  Can't remember where I saw it but I know I saw someone talking about Saturday night.  Hopefully this doesn't come across as a IMBY question, but has anyone see anything in the models that would indicate a disturbance coming thru Sat or Sat night as well?  And, isn't it entireyly possible that this far out, there really could be a lot of options still on the table for this weekend. 

 

There aren't a lot of options on the table.  We are going to be firmly entrenched in a deep northwest flow pattern, so our weather will be driven by the arrival of ill-timed clipper-like systems.  One will be tomorrow, the next on Friday/Friday night, etc.  Saturday should be dry.  Don't get too hyped about the Friday one either - looks pretty close to the one for tomorrow, 1-2" of snow at highest peaks.

[NavarreDon]

yes I've noticed that once he puts something out there he doesn't change it much.  I got to say I enjoy reading him.. I am hoping he has to update, as I have a vested interest in what its going to be doing Sat up at Winterplace.  I will be driving up fri night, and it will be great to see some flakes on the drive, but am also hoping something changes and Saturday is interesting as well.  Can't remember where I saw it but I know I saw someone talking about Saturday night.  Hopefully this doesn't come across as a IMBY question, but has anyone see anything in the models that would indicate a disturbance coming thru Sat or Sat night as well?  And, isn't it entireyly possible that this far out, there really could be a lot of options still on the table for this weekend. 

 

This was taken from GSP's disco from last night & is about to be updated, as I am sure you know so, take it with a grain of salt.

 

NW FLOW LASTS FROM LATE FRIDAY TO JUST AFTER

MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND EVEN SW EARLY

SATURDAY.

TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND THE ONLY ISSUE UNTIL DAY 7 IS WHETHER

THERE WILL BE ANY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE

PASSING FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGER

VERSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS BARELY NOTICEABLE ON THE ECMWF.

[Hvward]

and the 18z nam takes the entire storm away...

[NGTim]

thanks for the good replies guys. 

[HurricaneTracker]

and the 18z nam takes the entire storm away...

 

Yes it did.  HUGE shifts in model solutions for a storm that starts in less than 18 hours.  Incredible fail.

 

I suspect the "truth" will be closer to the GFS than anything, so follow that for guidance next 24 hours.  On the hourly timescales, I would use the HRRR/RUC model since it has done extremely well with short-term forecasts (less than 12 hours) all last year and through the rain event last week.

[wncsnow]

To say the 18Z NAM took the entire storm away is inaccurate, it just shifts the axis of moisture 50-100 miles SE towards to upstate and near Charlotte.. I wouldn't totally give up on this one yet..

[HurricaneTracker]

To say the 18Z NAM took the entire storm away is inaccurate, it just shifts the axis of moisture 50-100 miles SE towards to upstate and near Charlotte.. I wouldn't totally give up on this one yet..

 

I'll happily eat crow if it turns out I am wrong, but the NAM just hasn't been reliable in just about any situation over the past 12 months.  It's so hard to take anything it says seriously, which is why I cautioned to use the HRRR and the GFS.

 

I would be more surprised if the NAM was right (and the GFS/Euro wrong).  I think it's time to throw the towel in on this one...

[Hvward]

To say the 18Z NAM took the entire storm away is inaccurate, it just shifts the axis of moisture 50-100 miles SE towards to upstate and near Charlotte.. I wouldn't totally give up on this one yet..

 

 

Only saw out to 33 before I had to leave the office but for us in the mountains it took away our snow therefore it took away the storm, or at least thats how I view it.  This run doesn't look bad for other areas but not the mountains.  I haven't given up on it yet but I think its time to start being realistic and not set ourselves up for a big disappointment.

[franklin NCwx]

Rgem is same as 12z 1-3 snowfall for mtns.

[Met1985]

Meh looks like another dusting to maybe 2 inches. Well looks like cold and dry. 

[NavarreDon]

Okay someone is going to have to explain why Buncombe is not under a WWA. I understand whats going on with the models but if you are going to hoist a WWA for the areas that are currently advised how in the world is Buncombe left out? The northern part of the county is a decent bet to get some snow. I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter but it just seems silly. I know there is some politics involved but they really need to consider splitting the county if they are going to continue with this pattern! Sorry for the rant guys.

 

[Hvward]

Okay someone is going to have to explain why Buncombe is not under a WWA. I understand whats going on with the models but if you are going to hoist a WWA for the areas that are currently advised how in the world is Buncombe left out? The northern part of the county is a decent bet to get some snow. I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter but it just seems silly. I know there is some politics involved but they really need to consider splitting the county if they are going to continue with this pattern! Sorry for the rant guys.

 

I 100% agree with the bolded statement and fully support any action towards it happening.

[Met1985]

Okay someone is going to have to explain why Buncombe is not under a WWA. I understand whats going on with the models but if you are going to hoist a WWA for the areas that are currently advised how in the world is Buncombe left out? The northern part of the county is a decent bet to get some snow. I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter but it just seems silly. I know there is some politics involved but they really need to consider splitting the county if they are going to continue with this pattern! Sorry for the rant guys.

Lol they have something against you Don! Lol I am really not sure why either. Looks like going forward we will see some major cold air intrusions into the East. I have to think we will score sometime in the next 4 weeks.

[ncjoaquin]

Okay someone is going to have to explain why Buncombe is not under a WWA. I understand whats going on with the models but if you are going to hoist a WWA for the areas that are currently advised how in the world is Buncombe left out? The northern part of the county is a decent bet to get some snow. I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter but it just seems silly. I know there is some politics involved but they really need to consider splitting the county if they are going to continue with this pattern! Sorry for the rant guys.

 

You're right Don, it doesn't matter, but I wondered like you did. 2 of the 3 counties from the zone forecast below are under a WWA. See if you can tell which one is not. ( I will do the spoiler and tell you that the 3rd one is Buncombe and it's not and the 1st 2 are Macon and Graham and they are)  I can get a different forecast with the point and click, and a different forecast with NOAA weather radio.   ( and let me be clear, because I like Isohume, that GSP is 1st rate and always has been and I would not trade them for the world, but this doesn't make a lot of sense to me)

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 16. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

 

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CHANCE

OF RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE

AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. COLDER

WITH LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

[NavarreDon]

You're right Don, it doesn't matter, but I wondered like you did. 2 of the 3 counties from the zone forecast below are under a WWA. See if you can tell which one is not. ( I will do the spoiler and tell you that the 3rd one is Buncombe and it's not and the 1st 2 are Macon and Graham and they are)  I can get a different forecast with the point and click, and a different forecast with NOAA weather radio.   ( and let me be clear, because I like Isohume, that GSP is 1st rate and always has been and I would not trade them for the world, but this doesn't make a lot of sense to me)

 

 

+1 on both counts Jason. I think the Mets @ GSP do a awesome job with a CWFA that is one of the hardest in the country to forecast! Just seems like there have been some real head scratchers this winter. I'm sure my frustration over a lack of snow doesn't help matters either. I am also familiar with the western countys & realize they do have some high elevation areas but, again this some seems a bit strange.

[Tacoma]

You're right Don, it doesn't matter, but I wondered like you did. 2 of the 3 counties from the zone forecast below are under a WWA. See if you can tell which one is not. ( I will do the spoiler and tell you that the 3rd one is Buncombe and it's not and the 1st 2 are Macon and Graham and they are)  I can get a different forecast with the point and click, and a different forecast with NOAA weather radio.   ( and let me be clear, because I like Isohume, that GSP is 1st rate and always has been and I would not trade them for the world, but this doesn't make a lot of sense to me)

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 16. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

 

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CHANCE

OF RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE

AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. COLDER

WITH LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

I've wandered the same thing lately about Buncombe County being left out of the wwa.  usually it seems with all the counties under the wwa , Buncombe would be included just for the fact if this forecast is right you know by Thursday morning when the snow starts falling with temps that cold Wednesday night and Thursday morning the streets will become a sheet of ice just like a couple of weeks ago.  We had just enough snow to cover the ground but man were the streets slick with wrecks everywhere.  They even closed some streets.  So it doesn't take much to have dangerous roads.  Its really unbelievable how many times there is a wwa and Buncombe is not included but once the snow starts flying they add Buncombe County to the wwa area.  Heck look at N. Ga, they have also put counties under a wwa  and I would be surprised if any of those counties get more snow than Buncombe.  Yes look at the three forecast and you'll see there is not much difference but the other two counties are under a wwa and Buncombe is not.  I'll admit GSP is great but haven't quite figured out why Buncombe is always left out until after the event starts.

[Moonhowl]

No doubt that north Buncombe is a completely different world than south Buncombe when it comes to winter weather; splitting the county would make sense for WWAs.

[K4CF]

Geesh...NWS Morristown is betting the farm on the NAM....Im under a WWA while 5 miles to my west is a WSW

 

"Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST
Wednesday night for the following zones: Blount Smoky
Mountains...Cocke Smoky Mountains...Johnson...Sevier Smoky
Mountains...southeast Carter...southeast Greene...Unicoi

 

Event... rain showers will change quickly to snow showers late
tonight. Snow totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected."

[Met1985]

Geesh...NWS Morristown is betting the farm on the NAM....Im under a WWA while 5 miles to my west is a WSW

 

"Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST

Wednesday night for the following zones: Blount Smoky

Mountains...Cocke Smoky Mountains...Johnson...Sevier Smoky

Mountains...southeast Carter...southeast Greene...Unicoi

 

Event... rain showers will change quickly to snow showers late

tonight. Snow totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected."

Ya there are winter storm warnings all along the NC/TN boarder but they must think that the precip is going to get wrung out on that side instead of the NC side. Interesting I just wish we could get a true NW flow type pattern to set up.

[Met1985]

The moisture in TN look pretty meager. Temp down to 29 degrees though. 

[wncsnow]

Surprised that no one is talking about the 00Z NAM, it shows more moisture again across the mountains and western piedmont of NC, just not as much as 12Z did.

[NavarreDon]

Surprised that no one is talking about the 00Z NAM, it shows more moisture again across the mountains and western piedmont of NC, just not as much as 12Z did.

I've about givin up on the roller coaster ride of the NAM. It's really time for the RAP or better yet sticking your head out the door. Of course I will be up bright & early for some more abuse!

[Met1985]

I've about givin up on the roller coaster ride of the NAM. It's really time for the RAP or better yet sticking your head out the door. Of course I will be up bright & early for some more abuse!

Ya Don it is about time to look outside an  say Ya somebody is getting snow  but not me.

[Met1985]

The GFS and the NAM to a certain degree want to enhance snow across the mountains today. We shall see. There looks to be a few little snow threats from know through the weekend before the hammer drops. Will be nice just to see flakes flying around. The overnight Euro pattern looked great. Not sure about any storms but the cold air was here and looked to lock in to some extent.

[MikeGold]

No doubt that north Buncombe is a completely different world than south Buncombe when it comes to winter weather; splitting the county would make sense for WWAs.

 

Haywood County should be first in line when it comes to spliting a county. Huge extremes in snow/rainfall occur between the North and South sides of the counties with the middle of the county near Waynesville getting little of either. (Jackson County which is already split is similar to Haywood.) Differences across Buncombe are small/subtle in comparison albeit effect a lot more people. 

[MikeGold]

The GFS and the NAM to a certain degree want to enhance snow across the mountains today. We shall see. There looks to be a few little snow threats from know through the weekend before the hammer drops. Will be nice just to see flakes flying around. The overnight Euro pattern looked great. Not sure about any storms but the cold air was here and looked to lock in to some extent.

 

Not sure what to make of this setup. Very little cloud levels winds make this not a typical NW flow event. In fact the RAP VV fields suggest the Balsams mtns should do quite well but sinking motion in the Asheville areas. The HRRR looks like complete crap east of the TN line except later just East of the Blue Ridge as some convective bands organize.

[Met1985]

Lol Mike Ya not sure about this event at all. Really weird scrappy system. We will see how it all plays out. I agree with Haywood county being split. Big disparities from north to south. Shoot you can be getting plastered with snow up near the boarder but south they will be clear as a bell. Fascinating to see.