K4CF Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm liking the sound of that GSP forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Wow it sure is starting to look good. I will take 4-6 inches. Looks like this event is trending better and better. Also nice Mike coming home from work this morning some of the ridge tops on towards the Balsams were white. I have noticed even with the recent warmth and rainfall the ground temps have stayed cold. I noticed that even with the temp this morning right around 30 degrees there was lots of black ice on the roads. Snow should start accumulation pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 The 18z NAM and the GFS looks pretty good for the mid week event. The NAM actually looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think if nothing else the models have consistantly shown a heavy event for the nwf areas with potential of a few bands wandering into the valley. The overall trend I have noticed though is telling me there is something more to this week. None the less moisture and cold that heads east will get maximized in the mountains and those have consistantly popped up over the past few days on the various models. Rate will be hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think if nothing else the models have consistantly shown a heavy event for the nwf areas with potential of a few band wandering into the valley. The overall trend I have noticed though is telling me there is something more to this week. None the less moisture and cold that heads east will get maximized in the mountains and those have consistantly popped up over the past few days on the various models. Rate will be hard to predict. Yep I saw the same thing from GSP that some heavier bands of snow could break containment and come into the valleys on this next NW event Wednesday morning. The snow may also get into the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think if nothing else the models have consistantly shown a heavy event for the nwf areas with potential of a few bands wandering into the valley. The overall trend I have noticed though is telling me there is something more to this week. None the less moisture and cold that heads east will get maximized in the mountains and those have consistantly popped up over the past few days on the various models. Rate will be hard to predict. I've noticed with the clipper flows it seems the models push the moisture out way too early especially Madison north. And I agree, rates and ratios aren't modeled too well either. This is a little different animal than what we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 I've noticed with the clipper flows it seems the models push the moisture out way too early especially Madison north. And I agree, rates and ratios aren't modeled too well either. This is a little different animal than what we've seen this year. Ya seems like the models have a very tough time modeling NW Flow correctly. I am actually pretty excited about this event but hey I'm excited about every event lol. This looks to be a pretty good event for the favored areas with possibly significant accumulations. Even snow getting into the valleys will be interesting especially with the cold air dumping in here. The 00z nam still looked like a good hit for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Wed does look interesting. Really good moisture with inversions quite high during this event. Great snow growth in the clouds. If you look at the NAM bufkit sounding..you can see some dry air near the surface which will only serve to enhance convective instability/snow band formation..steepen lapse rates although it may cut down on snowfall in the lower elevations due to evaporation. One big negative for this event is the upslope winds are on the low side. On one hand-this will reduce omega on the NW facing slopes..on the other hand...less downsloping plus combination of good moisture might give some areas beyond the TN line a few inches. (such as my mtn top) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Nice Mike! With clouds moving in I think the 50's could be a stretch, it will be interesting to see if our highs bust. It could just be a little cold air stuck in the valley but I am at 31.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GSP still thinking maybe 3 to 6 but Rays Weather saying a dusting to 2 with "most seeing the dusting". To me, looks more than that. Quite the inversion this morning, I'm at 43.4 with a lot of mid twenties in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The clippers are better than nothing but I'm patiently waiting on a juicy gulf low. Seems like its worse than threading a needle or pulling a tooth to try to get a nice gulf low to come in just after the cold air settles in, Bad timing isn't the word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Just took a peek at the 12Z NAM, so take this comment for what its worth, but it doesn't look good. It has very weak 850mb flow post-frontal on Tuesday night/Wednesday, so despite some lingering moisture at 850, the flow is more westerly than northwesterly and less than 20kt. Even with the frontal band of precip early Wednesday, the NAM really dries things up quickly. If I only had the NAM to use to make a forecast, it would be in alignment with Ray's Weather - dusting in the valleys (at very best), and 1-2" higher elevations. Let's see what the other models bring later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Gfs much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Gfs much better. Yeah it is and one of the best runs its had. Interesting though how it handles the 500. Combines both s/w digs the trough deeper slightly which allows the the trough axis to go neutral further west compare to the nam. Honestly it maybe till 0z we can finally say for sure what it will do. But right now its questionable the way its handling the trough axis. But the mountains may get a good snow thump with a band setting up north and along of I85 heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like 9Z SREF shows .5" total precip (not sure of the liquid/snow ratio) for the snow event from 10 am Wednesday thru 2 pm Thursday for the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z gfs is the best run I have seen this year as far as potential for # of events. I would be very surprised if someone up in the higher mountains doesn't have 12"+ on the ground by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I suppose ole conservative Ray will be changing his forecast soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I suppose ole conservative Ray will be changing his forecast soon I dunno...GSP has just backed off the totals for Tues/Wed too...putting the sleds back in the barn "Overall snowfall amounts have decreased for the NC/tenn border region compared to the previous forecast with most locations expected to receive 1 to 3 inches through Thursday morning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I suppose ole conservative Ray will be changing his forecast soon Rule #1 in forecasting - never change your forecast on account of someone else's. I see nothing to disagree with Ray on the upcoming event (Wednesday). Using a Euro/GFS blend, I think 1" in the valleys and 1-3" higher elevations. The one thing all the models agree on (even the NAM) is the 850mb wind direction - more 280 degrees than the required 325 for best upslope. I am waiting for more model runs before discussing Friday's potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Not saying they are going to get that in one event but I do believe a couple of the ski spots could really cash in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Just took a peek at the 12Z NAM, so take this comment for what its worth, but it doesn't look good. It has very weak 850mb flow post-frontal on Tuesday night/Wednesday, so despite some lingering moisture at 850, the flow is more westerly than northwesterly and less than 20kt. Even with the frontal band of precip early Wednesday, the NAM really dries things up quickly. If I only had the NAM to use to make a forecast, it would be in alignment with Ray's Weather - dusting in the valleys (at very best), and 1-2" higher elevations. Let's see what the other models bring later today. The death nail! Lol if the flow is not true NW then we will be seeing flurries here and nothing more. That flow favors the norther half of the county more and helps with were Don is also. We will see but this does not sound as good as this morning. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 18Z looks much dryer. Boy this is getting very frustrated with having so much cold air but hardly any snow. The northern mountains seem to do ok but the southern mountains get very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We have just really paid the price ever since the glorious winters 2009-2010 & 2010-2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We have just really paid the price ever since the glorious winters 2009-2010 & 2010-2011!sure are. Its been three years since I have had more than three inches of snow on the ground imby. Thats impressive, in a bad way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 sure are. Its been three years since I have had more than three inches of snow on the ground imby. Thats impressive, in a bad way! Its been three years since I have had more than a dusting imby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 18Z looks much dryer. Boy this is getting very frustrated with having so much cold air but hardly any snow. The northern mountains seem to do ok but the southern mountains get very little. Yeah, we go from 3 to 6 to a dusting in 24 hours. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, we go from 3 to 6 to a dusting in 24 hours. Next. Yep pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hr 42 of the 00z nam has you in the qpf max '85 (Haywood Co.). Of course this is just one run, but its much better then the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I will take this any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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