Met1985 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 I guess I'm not overly excited by the snow potential for this setup. Looking at BUFKIT soundings at KAVL using the latest NAM/GFS shows that the cold air not to be overly impressive aloft and more importantly...no areas of snow growth in the clouds. The ridge tops will be more than cold enough for snow..moisture won't be problem but dendrites are very unlikely unless we get more cold air penetration Southward. Rather this setup looks more like a snow grain, graupel, freezing drizzle type of thing with perhaps a dusting of white on the ground. Actually, strong moist winds favor a nice rime event for Mt Mitchell, Roan Mtn, Smokys, and maybe even my mtn top. Thursday shows saturated air all the way down to 850 mb but temps only at -3 C at 700 mb. It is true at the ridge top level..the moisture profile will extend even further aloft than the model depicted at Asheville but snow flakes will be hard to come by. (Note: Here in Michigan-all I can say is wow! Snow is expected every day through Sunday with some of the higher elevations could get a serious dump from lake effect snow. Daylight band disruption, warm surface conditions and a poor match between extreme lake instability vs wind shear will be the only things keeping it from being a major event.) Great summary Mike. Hey all I am looking for is some flakes in the air. Not really expecting anything more than that but stranger things have happened in these mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Things still look primed for a shot at some flakes at the end of the week. I really would not be surprised to see some some flakes tomorrow night when the cold air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Snow is in the forecast for the first time this fall in the mountains!!!!!! Won't be much but hopefully I can see some flakes!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Snow is in the forecast for the first time this fall in the mountains!!!!!! Won't be much but hopefully I can see some flakes!!!!! Wise snow october.JPG Yep the NWS has a snow rain mix down here from Wednesday night thru Friday. Only 20 to 30 pops but I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yep the NWS has a snow rain mix down here from Wednesday night thru Friday. Only 20 to 30 pops but I'll take. Looks like some very light snow has already started to fall along the highest elevations near TN/NC line this morning along with gale force winds. Hopefully, LeConte Lodge will post some pics of it later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 RAP surface maps are showing snow for the high country late tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 October skiff of snow on Beech Mountainhttp://www.hcpress.com/news/its-snowing-atop-beech-mountain-wednesday-morning.html http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-beech-slopeside.php http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fLCrrc7xV4E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks like some very light snow has already started to fall along the highest elevations near TN/NC line this morning along with gale force winds. Hopefully, LeConte Lodge will post some pics of it later this morning. Yep we were in the 30s late this morning here when clouds rolled in this morning. October skiff of snow on Beech Mountain http://www.hcpress.com/news/its-snowing-atop-beech-mountain-wednesday-morning.html Nice find. Looking forward to that down here at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 12z a little more bullish on seeing some snow this evening but temps are marginal. Temps looking better for Friday morning but the moisture has fried up and know no snow for WNC. Well just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 http://blogs2.citizen-times.com/outdoors/2013/10/23/brrrr-winter-has-arrived-on-mount-mitchell/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 http://blogs2.citizen-times.com/outdoors/2013/10/23/brrrr-winter-has-arrived-on-mount-mitchell/ Nice Don. The 18z has come back with the snow for tomorrow night through Friday morning. I know one thing it is going to be cold! Clouds have moved in here so we could see a flake or two tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Some pretty impressive, non-hurricane-induced snow going on up in West Virginia. Here's the live HD cam at Snowshoe: http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-snowshoe-shavers-centre.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looking at early morning guidance..the snow should commence around 2 to 4 PM along the TN line and continue all night. The snow level will be around 6000 feet and won't be dropping until around 23Z. Still have the issue with poor snowflake production in the clouds but the length of time that the very small snowflakes will be falling should provide for some accumulation-enough to turn the ground white for sure. The 6Z NAM has the best Omega occurring around Noon today..after that only the vertical motion generated by the westerly moderate Upslope winds will be present. There will be little wind shear suggesting some banding structures are possible.The Plott Balsam Mtns along the Jackson/Hayward Co lines may end up being the furthest South the snow accumulates. Currently..temps are only about 20 on Mt Mitchell with sustained winds of 22 mph...brrr! Grandfather with the help of a mountain wave pattern has sustained at 47 mph with gusts to 59. (Highest gust of 72 mph in the last 24 hours.) Where did the Fall go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 http://www.weather.gov/gsp/EarlySnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 http://www.weather.gov/gsp/EarlySnow Yes, I'm loving these new graphics. I hope this becomes a trend on GSP's site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looking at early morning guidance..the snow should commence around 2 to 4 PM along the TN line and continue all night. The snow level will be around 6000 feet and won't be dropping until around 23Z. Still have the issue with poor snowflake production in the clouds but the length of time that the very small snowflakes will be falling should provide for some accumulation-enough to turn the ground white for sure. The 6Z NAM has the best Omega occurring around Noon today..after that only the vertical motion generated by the westerly moderate Upslope winds will be present. There will be little wind shear suggesting some banding structures are possible.The Plott Balsam Mtns along the Jackson/Hayward Co lines may end up being the furthest South the snow accumulates. Currently..temps are only about 20 on Mt Mitchell with sustained winds of 22 mph...brrr! Grandfather with the help of a mountain wave pattern has sustained at 47 mph with gusts to 59. (Highest gust of 72 mph in the last 24 hours.) Where did the Fall go? Ya Mike the winds were gusty last night but have since died down. Really not looking for anything to accumulate but on the cars and elevated surfaces. Obviously the closer to the boarder of TN/NC you get the better chance of snow you have. We will see but I think it will be nice just seeing the white stuff fall. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/EarlySnow Yep I noticed this also Don. Pretty cool and the new graphics should come in handy for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Great Analysis Mike! I am enjoying learning the ideal conditions for snow and how to read the bufkit charts. Understanding what type of snow falls during certain conditions is crucial for understanding snowfall in the mountains and I appreciate you posting your thoughts. Thanks again and keep em' coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 SPC site shows an axis of moisture upwind of the TN/NC line that will be the source of snow later today. It is making steady progress towards the SE. May have to ride out tonight or in the morning towards the Balsams or up towards Max Patch. They area does not look like much Mike but that is the great thing about upslope conditions ringing out all the moisture along the spine of the APPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 May have to ride out tonight or in the morning towards the Balsams or up towards Max Patch. They area does not look like much Mike but that is the great thing about upslope conditions ringing out all the moisture along the spine of the APPS. I would think for you..Waterrock Knob overlook...Newfound Gap/Clingman's Dome access road..or for a longer drive..Roan Mtn at Rt 261 would likely be the best spots to see something especially the later location. (Mt. Mitchell access road remains closed.) I'm out of town so I will miss the event. (I have a very nice lake effect event on-going a couple of hours from me but too busy to make the trek. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 I would think for you..Waterrock Knob overlook...Newfound Gap/Clingman's Dome access road..or for a longer drive..Roan Mtn at Rt 261 would likely be the best spots to see something especially the later location. (Mt. Mitchell access road remains closed.) I'm out of town so I will miss the event. (I have very nice lake effect event ion-going a couple of hours from me but too busy to make the trek. ) Lol busy man Mike. Ya those would be good places to go. Still at this time of the morning we are sitting at 30 degrees under cloudy skies and a nice fire built in the stove. Got to work this afternoon but will be looking forward to getting off tracking what little bit of snow we may get. Hey a nice winter feel at least to get you into the spirit. Take some pics up from there Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Great Analysis Mike! I am enjoying learning the ideal conditions for snow and how to read the bufkit charts. Understanding what type of snow falls during certain conditions is crucial for understanding snowfall in the mountains and I appreciate you posting your thoughts. Thanks again and keep em' coming! Your welcome! Here is a little more-quick looks 12 Z NAM shows that it a bit wetter than the last run so a solid couple of inches has become more possible. Here is a quick look at the SAT image of the area of moisture that I mentioned earlier. Hard to say just how far South it will dig but the NW mtns of NC are going to get this either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I would think for you..Waterrock Knob overlook...Newfound Gap/Clingman's Dome access road..or for a longer drive..Roan Mtn at Rt 261 would likely be the best spots to see something especially the later location. (Mt. Mitchell access road remains closed.) I'm out of town so I will miss the event. (I have a very nice lake effect event on-going a couple of hours from me but too busy to make the trek. ) Agree on NC 261 out of Bakersville...I live few miles west of Bakersville and some of the local Facebook posts were reporting snow on the ground up there last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Agree on NC 261 out of Bakersville...I live few miles west of Bakersville and some of the local Facebook posts were reporting snow on the ground up there last night Nice! Cannot wait to get this little event going. I think a few areas are going see a nice little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Your welcome! Here is a little more-quick looks 12 Z NAM shows that it a bit wetter than the last run so a solid couple of inches has become more possible. Here is a quick look at the SAT image of the area of moisture that I mentioned earlier. Hard to say just how far South it will dig but the NW mtns of NC are going to get this either way. Mike: Thanks for taking the time to perform and post this analysis. It is very valuable for High Country folks and is sincerely appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Wow Mike Awesome! This wil be a reference point for me for the rest of the winter. I don't expect anything from this system in the valley but its always exciting down here to see snow covered mountain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Your analysis has been pure Gold, Mike! Thanks for sharing your time and detailed diagrams with us. I learned quite a bit from your detailed description of the bufkit diagram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Your analysis has been pure Gold, Mike! Thanks for sharing your time and detailed diagrams with us. I learned quite a bit from your detailed description of the bufkit diagram. Thanks! For those that don't already have this installed on their computers..you can get it here: http://wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/index.html A program that will retrieve the required model data is available here: http://wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/bufget.html I generally use the data from this site: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html You click on the location of interest..then copy the URL into BUFGET...run BUFGET to retrieve the data(save the url/file)..then run BUFKIT to view the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Just got report that light snow/graupel has started at my mtn top near Balsam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nice teaching lesson MikeG. Latest HRRR for 23Z Even the nam, nam hires, and rap look very good for the Apps, especially the northern half. Yall enjoy those flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 seeing flakes fall on a few webcams on beech and sugar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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