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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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So, I just got back from "doing the loop" on my Gator. It's about 3 miles that goes around my mountain. I made an astounding discovery. No more than a few hundred feet from my house I saw a dead bird. A little black one. Don't know what kind, to me birds come in two categories, bid and small. Another 100 feet, another dead bird. I saw the first of 3 dead squirrels about a half mile in. When I got to the edge of my property at about 4700 feet elevation, I stopped and walked down a few of our trails. Dead birds all over the place. I probably saw 50 in all. No telling how many are in the woods.  

 

I've always wondered why birds don't freeze when it gets real cold. I guess they do. 

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So, I just got back from "doing the loop" on my Gator. It's about 3 miles that goes around my mountain. I made an astounding discovery. No more than a few hundred feet from my house I saw a dead bird. A little black one. Don't know what kind, to me birds come in two categories, bid and small. Another 100 feet, another dead bird. I saw the first of 3 dead squirrels about a half mile in. When I got to the edge of my property at about 4700 feet elevation, I stopped and walked down a few of our trails. Dead birds all over the place. I probably saw 50 in all. No telling how many are in the woods.  

 

I've always wondered why birds don't freeze when it gets real cold. I guess they do. 

Wow never have I sen anything like. Sounds like something out of Stephen King.

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GSP sounding somewhat bullish for next Tuesday/Wednesday for the mtns...

 

"Surface temperatures and partial thicknesses support a changeover snow in the mountains
Tuesday morning in the mountains and foothills...and back to rain during the day
before possibly changing back to snow across much of the area Tuesday
night. Both models suggest a marginally favorable setup for northwest flow
snow in the mountains Wednesday morning...with unremarkable accumulation"

 

 

Also...Now the 18Z NAM is on board with the RGEM for some freezing rain early Friday morning along the escarpment...9Z SREF has some freezing rain as far south as Roanoke or so (4 out of 20 SREF ensembles had freezing rain along the piedmont escarpment)

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Looks like some icing in the northern mountains tonight.

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE247 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THISEVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS  AND FOOTHILLS* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN LATE  THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE  ABOVE FREEZING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* IMPACTS...ICE SHOULD ACCUMULATE ON TREES...POWERLINES...AND ON  UNTREATED BRIDGES. IN ADDITION...SHADED SECONDARY  ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND DECKS MAY BECOME COATED IN A SLICK LAYER  OF ICE.
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There was balloon/soundings taken during this latest event by UNC Asheville.

 

http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html

 

I think it was done at Poga Mtn.

 

Just a few observations...lots of wind shear in the lower levels was evident which isn't good for banded structures.  There was some snow growth in clouds but the air quickly became unsaturated in this region so not the best and the moisture wasn't that deep going to about 6000 feet elevation. (Probably explains why the Smokies are blocking almost all the moisture from reaching my mtn top at 6100 feet.) Still, the parameters were good enough to produce some decent snows in the favored areas even if the unfavored areas were left out in the cold so to speak.

 

Nice write-up about the above soundings/last event can be found here:

 

http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/arctic-cold-frontal-passage-through-asheville-north-carolina-on-6-january-2014/

 

The soundings were taken at Asheville-not at Poga mtn.

 

Mentions that the models over estimated the amount of moisture available.  This last event was a complete flop on my mtn top.

 

There was another event at this time of the year back in 2007 that NWS Greenville did a write up on.

In that NW flow event-snowfall was maximized on my mtn top. The difference?  Only one that I can see was the inversion were drastically higher in that case allowing for convective snows to easily cross the Smokies. Adiabatic lapse rates created convective instability with inversions at least 7000 feet above the surface at the Nashville Sounding but that was likely breached with clouds heights likely reaching 700 mb.  I haven't seem anything even remotely like this so far this season.

 

http://www.weather.gov/gsp/9-10Jan2007NWFS

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It's 49.6 at midnight tonight. Just 4 nights ago it was -8.4 at this time. Been a wild week.

Yes it has. The ground is still so cold here even with the warm days an  the rain there is still quite a bit of ice on the streams and creeks. If we can just get through this weekend I think things start to trend better for us. As Mike stated possibly several small event next week.

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It should be interesting to seeing if we can get some diamond dust again on the night of the 16th.  Currently the gfs is showing the -12 line into Northern Buncombe Co. that night & this seems to be trending even cooler with the freezing line looking to go even deeper into FL then previous runs.  I had never seen diamond dust but when I went out to get dinner on Monday night I was mesmerized.  I would imagine you higher mountain folk experience this more often but for me this was my first time.  I love a downpour snow any day but seeing snow fall in clear skies is just fascinating.

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18z gfs showing good moisture for you guys above 3500 ft around 10 pm tonight.  Hopefully the temps will crash for you guys in the next couple of hours and you get a token inch or two.

 

Snow has commenced on the mtn top...and 32 degrees after about 3 inches of rain and high winds to start the day. Haven't had a chance to look at forecast details.

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It put up a good fight, but I won. Too bad I can't say the same for the Colts.

 

Dropped to 30.2 here this morning but no snow that I'm aware of. Wed. is starting to look a little better. Maybe 2 to 4 up top and 1 to 2 in Weaverville ?

 

 

Looks decent in the border counties... for you Joe, Met1985... for me, I will take nothing... and like it !!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

NCZ033-048>052-058-131430-

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-

923 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..WEDNESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO

THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG

THE TN BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 3

TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY

AFTERNOON.

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It put up a good fight, but I won. Too bad I can't say the same for the Colts.

 

Dropped to 30.2 here this morning but no snow that I'm aware of. Wed. is starting to look a little better. Maybe 2 to 4 up top and 1 to 2 in Weaverville ?

How about 1 to 2 in Asheville?    :snowing:

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Starting to look pretty good for Wed.

 

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
320 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT T

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