Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Personally I think it is time to stop model watching and just see how this event plays out. It is going to get very windy and very cold in a hurry hear. Might have some decent snow or might not. This is a unique event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah '85 I have found myself only looking at the country wide radar this morning. I just don't feel like the models have handled this to well and that is possibly due to the wicked cold and its rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Personally I think it is time to stop model watching and just see how this event plays out. It is going to get very windy and very cold in a hurry hear. Might have some decent snow or might not. This is a unique event. I agree buddy. Good luck to all with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I am hoping the front end of this coming event is just cold enough to ick out a few inches of wet snow up at 6000 feet and above. If it doesn't change over quickly..probably only another inch or so in the cold air behind the front. Right now-I"m thinking it will switch over around 4Z or so suggesting maybe 2 or 3" of snow before the deep moisture has moved out. Meantime, nice windstorm slamming the mtn top today. Near hurricane force gusts out of the SW possible this evening at the very top that faces to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Oh yes, the pipes! I knew I was forgetting something. Manly for my location I just need to make sure my above ground well pump is sung with installation. I just spent some time outside getting our animals (pony, Chickens, one large dog and three cats) ready with wind break and fresh hay. Ya made sure all pipes were wrapped good with installation. We are putting a little heater in the seller to make sure it does not get to cold and freeze the pipes even if they are wrapped. Going to check all the vehicles tomorrow. Loaded up on wood today and busted a bunch of smaller pieces to help get the wood lit. Busted up some lighter wood also. Making sure the animals will be warm and just hunkering down. This is pretty amazing but I do not think it has really set in at how extreme this is for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Isn't it true when you get air this cold in the mtns. and even just outside the mtns. while the front comes thru the cold air itself will ring out what moisture is in the air so a half inch to an inch of snow is not impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Good luck to everyone in the mountains, most of ya'll should pick up some snowfall late tonight and tomorrow. I know the majority of ya'll like to keep the mountain talk in this thread but feel free to post over on the arctic attack thread, especially in regards to the temps on Tuesday...it will be interesting to see where mountain areas bottom out Tuesday morning. This is going to be quite an event for everyone. Stay safe out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The fog up here sure has eaten away the snow cover that we had - guess because it had very little water content. Hard to tell exactly how much snow we will get tonight/Monday but probably not more than 6" on the peaks and maybe 1-2" in Boone. After that, it may be a while before we see any more. Boone is about 10-11" behind in snowfall so far this year. I believe the lowest winter snow total we have had since about 1995 is about 10" in 2002 I think. I hope we don't end up that low, but we have some time to catch up to our season average of 35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I stated it a few times this weekend, but snow potential in the mountains looks worse than the last event and gets worse with each model run. I'm currently 57 degrees here just southwest of AVL, significantly warmer than any model output. Models slowing down the front and moisture is scant behind it, including upslope areas. Personally, I believe 1-2" for Buncombe county is way too high, and would go .1-.3"; a dusting at best. Upslope continues to look weak, if the models have the moisture progged correctly. 2-4" in these favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like there's not a lot of snow with this front followed by a quick 48 hour cold snap. Got down to 2.8 degrees the other night so what's another 8 degrees. Meh. Outside the mountains though it's really going to seem cold to the flatlanders. I'm sure a lot plumbers are going to get rich the next few days. Edit: Posted at the same time Tracker. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I stated it a few times this weekend, but snow potential in the mountains looks worse than the last event and gets worse with each model run. I'm currently 57 degrees here just southwest of AVL, significantly warmer than any model output. Models slowing down the front and moisture is scant behind it, including upslope areas. Personally, I believe 1-2" for Buncombe county is way too high, and would go .1-.3"; a dusting at best. Upslope continues to look weak, if the models have the moisture progged correctly. 2-4" in these favored areas. Wow hard to believe nearly a 20 degree temperature difference between our locations. Sitting at 37 right now with heavy drizzle. Had some freezing rain this morning, enough to coat elevated surfaces and cause multiple wrecks in the county. I think our forecast high of 45 may be in jeopardy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think schools will be closed Tuesday morning just for the dangerous wind chills. With those temps some of the school buses will not start. Schools might close for road conditions but buses shouldn't have a problem starting if the've been properly maintained. After all, school buses run all winter in MN and AK. By the way, I'm sure you know this isn't so but, your statement made it sound as if buses are affected by wind chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I stated it a few times this weekend, but snow potential in the mountains looks worse than the last event and gets worse with each model run. I'm currently 57 degrees here just southwest of AVL, significantly warmer than any model output. Models slowing down the front and moisture is scant behind it, including upslope areas. Personally, I believe 1-2" for Buncombe county is way too high, and would go .1-.3"; a dusting at best. Upslope continues to look weak, if the models have the moisture progged correctly. 2-4" in these favored areas. This is getting pretty bad when we can't get an inch out of the moisture. Is this because the cold air is slower to move in? Cheeznado was saying that it looks like a good plug of moisture is behind the cold front that atlanta would also have some snow showers after the front moves thru and temps have already dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Schools also look at the heating in classrooms which is a bigger problem the further south you go into GA or FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Schools might close for road conditions but buses shouldn't have a problem starting if the've been properly maintained. After all, school buses run all winter in MN and AK. By the way, I'm sure you know this isn't so but, your statement made it sound as if buses are affected by wind chill. I'd say some schools will be delayed or closed due to the fact they wouldn't want kids at the bus stop in sub zero temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'd say some schools will be delayed or closed due to the fact they wouldn't want kids at the bus stop in sub zero temperatures. Very likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Schools might close for road conditions but buses shouldn't have a problem starting if the've been properly maintained. After all, school buses run all winter in MN and AK. By the way, I'm sure you know this isn't so but, your statement made it sound as if buses are affected by wind chill. I know the buses up there are maintained differently because every winter is so cold. I drive a bus route and believe me if the temp drops to even 10 degrees those buses moan and groan. I'm reading we may get down to 5 below so yes the mechanics will have they're hands full. Main reason for closing if they indeed do close would be mostly for the dangerous wind chills for the kids standing at bus stops. I know years ago schools in Buncombe and surrounding counties closed due to the dangerous wind chills affects on the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I drive a bus route and believe me if the temp drops to even 10 degrees those buses moan and groan. lol So do I, but I still get moving. I hear you though and pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I stated it a few times this weekend, but snow potential in the mountains looks worse than the last event and gets worse with each model run. I'm currently 57 degrees here just southwest of AVL, significantly warmer than any model output. Models slowing down the front and moisture is scant behind it, including upslope areas. Personally, I believe 1-2" for Buncombe county is way too high, and would go .1-.3"; a dusting at best. Upslope continues to look weak, if the models have the moisture progged correctly. 2-4" in these favored areas. This is getting pretty bad when we can't get an inch out of the moisture. Is this because the cold air is slower to move in? Cheeznado was saying that it looks like a good plug of moisture is behind the cold front that atlanta would also have some snow showers after the front moves thru and temps have already dropped. GFS looks a lot more moist than NAM does with upslope. If GFS verifies, then it would snow most of the day in the upslope areas. Some snow showers would filter into the valleys but accums should be light. Higher elevations would be 3-6" if GFS is right. Seems models have no idea what the impact of the deep snowpack upstream of us will have on our moisture supply for snow showers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I stated it a few times this weekend, but snow potential in the mountains looks worse than the last event and gets worse with each model run. I'm currently 57 degrees here just southwest of AVL, significantly warmer than any model output. Models slowing down the front and moisture is scant behind it, including upslope areas. Personally, I believe 1-2" for Buncombe county is way too high, and would go .1-.3"; a dusting at best. Upslope continues to look weak, if the models have the moisture progged correctly. 2-4" in these favored areas. Like Blue_Ridge_Escarpment, I'm amazed at the temperature differential. I'm also fluctuating between 37-38 with light drizzle. The power of CAD!! It's just not quite strong enough in this case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol So do I, but I still get moving. I hear you though and pretty much agree. I know this should be in the Banter thread but pleased to meet another bus driver, jburns, hope you can get some snow out of this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I know this should be in the Banter thread but pleased to meet another bus driver, jburns, hope you can get some snow out of this system as well. Thanks, but no snow for me here this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol So do I, but I still get moving. I hear you though and pretty much agree. I know this should be in the Banter thread but pleased to meet another bus driver, jburns, hope you can get some snow out of this system as well. Not to continue the banner, but iam just wanting to complete my three days of driving so I can start driving a bus It is 41 here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Nice we have bus drivers in the house!!! Well all be safe and warm in this upcoming event. The wind has been rocking here. Also as Tracker said much warmer than modeled and the precipitation on the backside of this is not looking impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE336 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TONOON EST TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING BELOW ZERO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20 MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Well I'll be darn! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC939 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEASTGEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY....AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WESTDURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT RAIN JUST IN ADVANCE OF THECOLD FRONT...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THEFRONT AND ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER RAPIDLY TO SNOWACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND RAPIDLYFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL CREATE VERY SLIPPERYCONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHINDTHE FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE TENNESSEEBORDER COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. IN ADDITION...VERY WINDYCONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THEPASSING FRONT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAYNIGHT...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WEHAVE SEEN IN MANY YEARS. BRISK WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYWILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY COLD AIR TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDCHILLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OUT OVERTHE PIEDMONT.NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-061100-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0002.140106T0500Z-140106T1700Z//O.CON.KGSP.WC.W.0001.140106T2300Z-140107T1700Z/BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE939 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TONOON EST MONDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOONEST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLACK ICE...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ASHEVILLE AREA...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...AND WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW RESULTING. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME VERY SLIPPERY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BITTER TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND WORSEN MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS IN EXTREME NORTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...WESTERN MACON COUNTY...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* WINDS...BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE HIGHER RIDGES EARLY...THEN NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.* WIND CHILL VALUES...FALLING TO MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 MONDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT...THROUGH THE TEENS BY LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON MONDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...VERY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SNOW AND RAIN THAT WILL FREEZE ON AREA ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW POWER OUTAGES COULD RESULT FROM THE GUSTY WINDS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR ANDSTRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THISWILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IFPRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLACK ICE MEANS THAT VERYSLIPPERY ROADWAY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL MAKE TRAVELHAZARDOUS. AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TOREACH YOUR DESTINATION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 ya beat me to it AshevilleDon lol. just noticed the updated advisories expanding a bit - nice to see that instead of shrinking ones it is still 37 here, wet, dripping and foggy. it isnt going to take more than a 6 or 7 degree drop to get things to start freezing up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Winds are howling here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 ya beat me to it AshevilleDon lol. just noticed the updated advisories expanding a bit - nice to see that instead of shrinking ones it is still 37 here, wet, dripping and foggy. it isnt going to take more than a 6 or 7 degree drop to get things to start freezing up quickly39 here but soaking wet again. Had a steady rain for the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Winds are howling here! Yep here also. Wind gust up to about 25 mph in some cases. Sitting at a balmy 50 degrees. Don nice about time. I really think the models are underplaying the moisture of this on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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