Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Also with the moisture working in early and temps in the mid to upper 20s freezing rain seems to be an issue this morning. SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD117 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014...PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THENORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINSOF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY 4 AM. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULDCONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SOMESHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUNDFREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OFFREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND OTHERSURFACES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BYTHE TIME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 06z trends colder for the first of next week if you can believe that or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Also we still keep the chance of some good upslope snow but wow when the front moves through just a massive drop in temps the first three hours. Looks like some 10 to 15 degrees if I am reading that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow '85 looks like things are really going to get dicey! Looks like that backside is digging nicely for us and there will be plenty of moisture for a few flakes when the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow-what is not to like about this coming setup? Great Moisture..great snow growth..strong omega in the clouds, adequate winds-yikes-get the snow shovels out! With temps dropping to zero degrees..gale force winds...I expect full blown blizzard conditions at all exposed higher elevation locations. Unlike previous events-snow showers will have no problem crossing over the TN line into the NC mtns with such deep moisture and upper level support. Probably the only negatives are the winds will be slowly veering with time ended up out of the North which will prevent NW to SE oriented bands from lingering over the same locations. Also, it won't be a particularly long lived event either. The pre-cold front environment looks interesting prior to the cold frontal passage for the extreme higher elevations. Could end with some decent wet snows on the front end of this. I will be getting reports/pics from the mtn top during this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks Mike, very detailed and informative. Looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 current temp imby is 30.7 with a band of precip about 15 miles to my west. This could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone stay in Asheville? Heard they have a high wind warning for winds up to 60mph! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Unusual situation for my backyard going on. Moisture is rapidly moving in and my temp has fallen from 30.3 to 28.8. Normally the SW flow overwhelms the evap cooling & we warm up. Concerned about a short window of freezing rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone stay in Asheville? Heard they have a high wind warning for winds up to 60mph! Enjoy! Hey we like weather, all kinds, no judgement up here what so ever! Thats why we live here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ground temps per my infrared thermometer are between 23-25 degrees with cement temps right around 32. Any rain would currently freeze on contact with surfaces other then pavement & cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks mike just saw your post, great info. I look forward to hearing your observations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GSP update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 655 AM...RAIN IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE NC MTNS...WHICH ISDISCONCERTING SINCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHVALLEYS OF THE NC MTNS. OUR CRITERIA FOR A FZRA ADVISORY IS A TRACEOF ACCUMULATION...SINCE THIS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.THEREFORE...AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NORTHERN MTNSPLUS MADISON COUNTY. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN QUICKLY AFTERBEGINNING...AND LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE OF ICE SHOULD ACCUMULATE.HOWEVER...CONSIDERING HOW COULD IT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNSTHIS MORNING...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SLICK SPOTS ONROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 also here is part of the GSP overnight disco: FRONTAL PRECIP WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGHABOUT MID-AFTERNOON...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN ALLAREAS. QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AQUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING ONE HALFINCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS...WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPRATES IS LIKELY IN STRONG W/SW UPSLOPE FLOW. VERY COLD AIR SLASHINGIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSSTHE NC MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...A TRANSITION TO SNOW...WITHLIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS LIKELY...WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONSBEFORE THE FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SNOWEVENT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...IN STRONG NW FLOW REGIME (H8 WINDS OF40-55 KTS BY 03Z). TEMPERATURES IN THE NW FLOW MOIST LAYER APPROACH-20 C BY 06Z. IT/S BEEN SEVERAL YEARS SINCE WE/VE SEEN SUCH THERMALPROFILES FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLESYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH USUALLY MEANSWIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE VERY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCERS.IN FACT...SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 30 TO 1 ARE NOT AT ALL OUT OF THEQUESTION TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST TOTAL ACCUMS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNBORDER. IIN ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG TONIGHT...ESPACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE. NW H8WINDS OF UP TO 55 KTS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE...APRESSURE GRADIENT OF 7 TO 8 MB ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND ASURFACE CYCLONE BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ARE TYPICALLYSLAM DUNK INDICATORS OF A HIGH WIND EVENT...AND THE CURRENT WATCHWILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...WITH HIGH WIND WORDING /WRAPPED/INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. A WINDADVISORY WILL ALSO BE CARRIED FOR THE ADJACENT LOW ELEVATIONS OF THENC FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SINGLE DIGIT...ANDPOSSIBLY BELOW ZERO AIR TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO-20 ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN THENORTHWEST FLOW SNOW AREAS. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS WILL BE A NIGHT FITFOR NEITHER MAN NOR BEAR ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NCMTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, Don, my favorite line from that disco was: IN A NUTSHELL...THIS WILL BE A NIGHT FITFOR NEITHER MAN NOR BEAR ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NCMTNS. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, Don, my favorite line from that disco was: Nice! I love that quote! Currently, 33 degrees, wind and rain on the mtn top. No ice/snow at the present time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, Don, my favorite line from that disco was: Nice! Mine too, just read that to my co workers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Great post Mike that was what I was waiting for from ya. Also Don good to see GSP maybe upping totals for this event. Like Mike said this is really a perfect setup for the upslope regions. Be safe and carful out there because once it starts it is going to get ugly in a hurry I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Went from 27 to 33 really quick. Midlevels are a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here is a map from the latest HRRR run showing rel humidity for 850 mb. I have marked in the red the 70% line which likely is the separation point for areas getting snow and areas not. The time is for 9 PM this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here is a map from the latest HRRR run showing rel humidity for 850 mb. I have marked in the red the 70% line which likely is the separation point for areas getting snow and areas not. The time is for 9 PM this evening. Nice Mike thank. Again that map show most of Buncombe county in the snow field. Really think they have at least advisory criteria snows. As for the rest could have several bouts of blizzard conditions with these snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest NWS map shows that up to 10" to fall on the TN line. It shows about 3" at my mtn top which will get some shadow effects from the Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 31 degrees and rain here at the moment...interesting to see how long the temp stays below freezing with precip here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Where would I find possible accumulation maps for northern mountains, areas covered by Blacksburg? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To back up Mike's post on 10" possible on ridge tops: US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC Here is our latest forecast for total snowfall in the mountains thru Friday morning. Up to 10 inches may fall on the ridges right along the Tennessee border. Blowing snow will also be of concern, causing poor visibility on mountain roads tonight, even in areas which see lighter accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 While we are at it..here is the map for the TN side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 New NAM still looks good. Highest elevations should turn over to snow around 1PM and may get a fews hours of enhanced snow before pure Upslope kicks in. Looks like there may be a bit of lull centered around 8PM as the deep moisture is moving out and upslope moisture moves in. Should be mostly over by 7AM as the 70% + humidity dries up at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Snow has commenced at LeConte at 10 AM..ground is already covered: http://www.highonleconte.com/1/post/2014/01/happy-new-year-it-is-snowing-at-the-lodge.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well my meeting in Atlanta has been cancelled tomorrow. Will probably be heading to soco gap in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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