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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Just looking at the 00z GFS and wow the arctic blast coming in about a week means business. Would be dangerously cold for the mountains. Wow is all I can say. Have not seen temps like that for years here.

its pretty cold. And that should be a better uplope event as that low wraps up with a good fetch from the lakes.
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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

408 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

ON THURSDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE

TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW

PRESSURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY ACROSS THE HIGH

ELEVATIONS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO

CHANGE TO SNOW. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE

AFTERNOON...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS

BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENNESSEE

BORDER.HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN

THE HIGH ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

 

 

Bout' time.

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I really wouldn't call 3 to 5 heavy snow but I'll take it.

 

 

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
408 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW PACKED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY MAY MAKE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DIFFICULT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

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NCEP SREF Plume members now showing an average snowfall at KAVL of around .9"-1".  These have progressively risen over the past couple of runs.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140101&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=AVL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=35.23188242424264&mLON=-82&mTYP=roadmap

 

Plumes show 1.5" average for Franklin area

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We are now upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning

xhgVRKH.jpg

http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/13601547

CZ033-049-050-020445-

/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE

331 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST

FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM

THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER

IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES

WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW PACKED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY MAY MAKE

TRAVEL CONDITIONS DIFFICULT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL

PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGE

TO TREES OR STRUCTURES...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH

YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU

CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE

SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

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Discussion from KGSP on our impending winter storm event:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS

THE NC MTNS THURSDAY EVENING. H8 WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS

WHILE TEMPS PLUNGE TO -17 DEG C BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES WILL

BE STEEPEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS

SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 1 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL WE BARELY

HIT 12 HOUR WINTER STORM CRITERIA OVER THE NRN MTNS AND ACROSS THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN LINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTNS.

THEREFORE I WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING. THIS

WILL ALSO ALLOW ME TO ROLL THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW WIND

CHILL VALUES INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500

FEET SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO 5 TO 7 ABOVE BY 12 UTC FRI. WITH THE

STRONG WINDS THIS PUTS THESE ELEVATIONS WELL INTO THE WIND CHILL

ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS

CONDITIONS OVER THE WARNING AREA...SO I/M NOT TOO CONCERNED EVEN IF

WE FALL A LITTLE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND THE EAST

SLOPES OF THE NC BLUE RIDGE LOOK PRIMED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. SINCE

THESE ZONES WILL GET CONSIDERABLY LESS SNOWFALL...A HIGH WIND WATCH

WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. I/M GOING WITH A WATCH AS THIS

IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT AND I/D RATHER NOT PUT A WARNING OUT QUITE

THAT FAR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RUN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

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Wednesday 10:22pm Update

Not much change...the event is on.

KzgcStk.png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1022 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

ON THURSDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE

TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL

CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW

LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY

EVENING...WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE HIGH

ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL

VALUES WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO

RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

NCZ048-051-052-058-021200-

/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/

/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/

MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE

1022 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO

7 AM EST FRIDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY

TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER

COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES

WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ABOVE 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY

NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 3500

FEET...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW PACKED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL MAKE

TRAVEL CONDITIONS DIFFICULT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL

PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-021200-

/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE

1022 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO

7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES

WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW PACKED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY MAY MAKE

TRAVEL CONDITIONS DIFFICULT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL

PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGE

TO TREES OR STRUCTURES...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH

YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU

CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE

SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

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Looks like some of the favored upslope areas could see a quick 3-6 inches of snow. I was looking at some Skew-Ts from near the Tennessee border, and it does appear that there will be a good chance for these areas to see 3-6 inches. Most areas will see 1-3 inches of snow outside of the favored areas. Here is my map....

 

I would not be shocked for Asheville to see a dusting from this system.

 

NW_Flow_Jan_2_3_2014.gif

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20-1 ratios are quite impressive! The higher elevations should cash rather nicely for this year. There is such a disparity in flow snow accums from N to S in Buncombe & Macon. I wouldn't be surprised to see WWA's for these posted tomorrow. Due to a combo of snow, wind, & temps.

I agree Don. I think with the strong winds and crashing temps there will be some good snow showers passing through that areas. Maybe Asheville can finally pick up and inch of snow. I would not be surprised if they issue some kind of wind chill advisory either for the higher elevations. This cold coming in tomorrow evening is no slouch.

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Looks like there could be another upslope snow event for Sunday night into Monday with the arctic front.

Ya the 00z looks better for some upslope snows here in the mountains. Looks like we start the day off in the 30s and then drop to single digits by the afternoon. Been a long time since that has happened here. Two really dangerous situations taking place if that verifies. one is tomorrow night through Friday and the other is the system around the 6th. I really think the tomorrow system is going to be very treacherous for drivers. We go from rain to snow and temps plummeting. Also not like we have been very warm recently. Right know sitting at 24 degrees. It not really going to matter about ground temps because we will be dropping into the single digits anyway. Fun time ahead for the mountains.

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Looks like some of the favored upslope areas could see a quick 3-6 inches of snow. I was looking at some Skew-Ts from near the Tennessee border, and it does appear that there will be a good chance for these areas to see 3-6 inches. Most areas will see 1-3 inches of snow outside of the favored areas. Here is my map....

 

I would not be shocked for Asheville to see a dusting from this system.

 

NW_Flow_Jan_2_3_2014.gif

Thanks Jordon for the map. I like your 3-6 inches in the general higher elevations. Still think someone ends up with 8+ out of this.

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North GA getting in on the action.

 

MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
445 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS FROM ICY ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS AT 1500
  FT OR ABOVE WHILE ICY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL IN THE
  ADVISORY AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO BLACK ICE AND
  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS
  WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD AND BELOW ZERO AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
  AS WELL.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH BUT UP TO 1
  INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
  THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ROADWAYS ARE STILL WET. TEMPERATURES WILL
  FALL INTO THE 20S AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALLOWING FOR SLICK
  SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
 

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