Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 The blob of moisture working in from TN will need to be watched later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like Thursday night might have something to it.....esp for you higher elevation peeps. Here is GSP's short term: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET ANDCOOL AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WERELOWERED A FEW DEGREES WED MORNING.THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING ON THURSDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGSACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. THIS IS MORE IN LINEWITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF...THOUGH THE 12 RUN OF THE EC WAS STILL DEEPERAND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FOR THE SAKE OF COMPROMISE...I FOLLOWEDFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS EVENT. ON THURSDAY THE GFS BRINGS ASTRONG BAND OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH THE BANDSLOPING UP TO ABOUT 500 MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE NRN STREAMTROUGH PHASES WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SLUG OFSRN STREAM MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SO EVEN WHILE WEWON/T BE UNDER THE STRONGEST LLVL WARM ADVECTION...AT LEAST ON THISRUN...WE SHOULD SEE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE FA ONTHURSDAY. FOR NOW I/VE ONLY UPPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE NAM...BUT ISUSPECT WE/LL NEED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER FOR THURSDAY WITH LATERPACKAGES. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE LIQUID...THOUGH THERE COULD BESOME SLEET AND SNOW OVER THE NC MTNS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES THUNIGHT...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10 DEG CALONG THE TN LINE. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING ALONG WITH THE NW FLOW MOISTURE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THISCOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NC MTNS.THE EC IS ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON THIS PART OFTHE FORECAST. I/LL BUMP UP THE SNOWFALL WORDING IN THE HWO TOACCOUNT FOR THIS...BASICALLY PUTTING THE NC MTNS IN A /WINTER STORMOUTLOOK/...MEANING A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT WINTER STORMCRITERIA SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR HIGHERELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN LINE. NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN ONFRIDAY AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS LOOK TORUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 30 percent chance is not that bad this far out. Was just going to comment Don that GSP was really looking into what will happen the end of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well just saw out first flakes of the day and boy is it cold out Temps have fallen all day to around 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Congrats on the flakes 85!.....how bout sending some down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Congrats on the flakes 85!.....how bout sending some down this way. Lol I think that little batch of moisture may help later tonight. Not sure but just a passing flurry was all but wow is it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Robert an update for subscribers on the upcoming system.The NC High Country may finally get its first substantial upslope snow this winter from the backside of the system.http://wxsouth.com/?cat=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Robert an update for subscribers on the upcoming system. The NC High Country may finally get its first substantial upslope snow this winter from the backside of the system. http://wxsouth.com/?cat=9 Lets hope so. The slopes and those of us who have to live vicariously through the webcams could use it. Just checked the sugar base cam and a nice snow shower is passing through at the moment, Wish they would fix the thermometer up on top, been down a few days now. Anyway whatever happened to localyokelweather from Jackson County? Haven't seen him post in forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets hope so. The slopes and those of us who have to live vicariously through the webcams could use it. Just checked the sugar base cam and a nice snow shower is passing through at the moment, Wish they would fix the thermometer up on top, been down a few days now. Anyway whatever happened to localyokelweather from Jackson County? Haven't seen him post in forever.have not heard from him I was wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The models still look very favorable for a good sized event here in the mountains. I know that the models have a very tough time with upslope event but I guarantee every bit of the moisture coming from TN will get wrung out over the mountains. Looks like a decent event for TN and with the NW flow kicking up I think we see winter storm watches being posted later today for the mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree '85. Things look as though we could even get a couple of inches down here in the valley. Looking at the most current runs of the gfs & nam on BUFKIT there appears to be a decent snow growth with omega's crashing in saturated air very early Friday morning from 1800' ft and up. I have just recently been learning how to read & run these so hopefully MikeGold will chime in with an experts opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GSP short term: &&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN THE NAM WITHTHE SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THEY BOTH AGREETHAT THERE WILL BE SOME PHASING WITH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS WITHTHE SYSTEM...THOUGH THE RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE WAVE KEEPS SFC LOWPRESSURE FROM DEEPENING UNTIL IT/S WELL OFF THE COAST. GFS 850-300MBLAYER DIV-Q SHOWS GOOD DEEP LAYER FORCING CROSSING THE MOUNTAINSRIGHT AROUND 00 UTC. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY FALL AROUND21 UTC OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL ISPOSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-03 UTC AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE ALIGNEDWITH DEVELOPING NW FLOW. BASED ON A BLEND OF JUST ABOUT EVERY MODELQPF...AND A SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INCREASING TO 15 TO 1...I GETSNOWFALL TOTALS FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH LATE EVENING OF 2 TO 4 INCHESALONG THE TN LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD EVENAFFECT SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE SNOWFALL TOTALS I HAVE AREJUST A HAIR BELOW THE 12 HOUR WINTER STORM CRITERIA. IT/S TOO EARLYFOR A WATCH ANYWAY...BUT I/LL MENTION THE UPGRADED TOTALS IN THEHWO.MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.WIND CHILL VALUES AT THE HIGHER NC MTN ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL TO 5TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORYCRITERIA WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTOVER THE NC MTNS. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREESBELOW NORMAL OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND AROUND 20 DEGREESBELOW NORMAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Don for the post. Looks like it is going to get interesting and very cold. Kind of concerned with flash freezing on the roads if the cold air really dumps in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 00z NAM looks very snow friendly for us mountain folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 00z GFS continues to look very good for mountain snow Thursday night into Friday with temps dropping like a rock behind the front. Friday morning travel is going to be very dicey to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 00z GFS continues to look very good for mountain snow Thursday night into Friday with temps dropping like a rock behind the front. Friday morning travel is going to be very dicey to say the least. I had some intentions to go to Western Carolina on Thursday evening. You think it will be getting bad crossing the gap by 0z Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I had some intentions to go to Western Carolina on Thursday evening. You think it will be getting bad crossing the gap by 0z Friday?which gap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 00z GFS continues to look very good for mountain snow Thursday night into Friday with temps dropping like a rock behind the front. Friday morning travel is going to be very dicey to say the least. Yeah '85 things finally looking to be going at least our way up here in the mountains. I would still love to see this cold air sneak into the piedmont, upstate sc, and ne ga for a surprise inch our two so others on the board could cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 which gap? Through the Balsams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 00z GFS continues to look very good for mountain snow Thursday night into Friday with temps dropping like a rock behind the front. Friday morning travel is going to be very dicey to say the least.I dont see big totalsfrom this one. The trough is not very deep and all the dynamics are out once the temps crash. When I look for really good upslope events I like to see saturation at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Through the Balsams.should be ok. If you take 19 you will see more snow than taking 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I had some intentions to go to Western Carolina on Thursday evening. You think it will be getting bad crossing the gap by 0z Friday? Ya by that time things will be getting dicey and freezing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah '85 things finally looking to be going at least our way up here in the mountains. I would still love to see this cold air sneak into the piedmont, upstate sc, and ne ga for a surprise inch our two so others on the board could cash in. Ya I don't think that will happen but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Through the Balsams. If you go through Balsam Gap be very carful. I have seen some bad wrecks through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you go through Balsam Gap be very carful. I have seen some bad wrecks through there. Thanks! Jury still out on whether I will be going but I knew you guys would know that area a lot better than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropoFold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks! Jury still out on whether I will be going but I knew you guys would know that area a lot better than I do.during upslope events they will keep a truck at the top of the gap to keep scraping and salting. In my experience balsam gets hit worse during miller a type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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