Met1985 Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The weather outlets have not really been putting much stock in the front side of this storm but I think we could see a couple of hours of snow from the front of the precipitation. I could be wrong but the GFS has been hammering away at this idea for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The weather outlets have not really ben putting much stock in the front side of this storm but I think we could see a couple of hours of snow from the front of the precipitation. I could be wrong but the GFS has been hammering away at this idea for several runs. Newer runs still show it and now the NWS Greenville finally made mention of it in their forecast discussion and are considering issuing an advisory about it. I will take a look at the 12 Z models to see if it can be nailed down a bit further. The backside of the storm now looks even more meager than it did before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Newer runs still show it and now the NWS Greenville finally made mention of it in their forecast discussion and are considering issuing an advisory about it. I will take a look at the 12 Z models to see if it can be nailed down a bit further. The backside of the storm now looks even more meager than it did before. Ya I really like our chances on the front end more than the backend for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Some bone chilling cold this morning with a low of 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ya I really like our chances on the front end more than the backend for this system. Not thrilled with the new model runs either. I think I will throw in the towel and focus on the significant snow approaching Michigan. Have a nice weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12Z RGEM still looking bullish on front end wintry mix...and some back side snow 12Z NAM says...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOMWiOekcBU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Our forecasted high was 46 but I am sitting at 40 degrees right now. I don't see that happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 12Z RGEM still looking bullish on front end wintry mix...and some back side snow 12Z NAM says...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOMWiOekcBU Lol Ya NAM has not been as bullish as the GFS but I think we may just come out of this with a nice wintery event on the front side. Could be reading into the GFS more than I should but I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking at the radar the precipitation is going to come in way sooner than the NAM. I am really liking the GFS. Temp has fallen down to the mid 30s. I am liking the way this is rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice a winter weather advisory for Avery, Madison, Yancy, Mitchell, Swain, Haywood, and Graham counties from midnight tonight to noon Sunday for ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temp has risen 2 degrees in the last hour from 37 to 39. Looks like storms are starting to fire as the gulf moist air starts to work in. Hopefully we will see a few flakes on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 High winds..rain..sleet on the mtn top this morning but no ice or snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I found the NWS Greenville forecast discussion rather interesting. As previously note, some of the forecast soundings that I have been looking at really don't match the reality in NW upslope events. I see that they added my mtn top to the winter advisory (Northern Jackson) but not really expecting anything there tomorrow morning except perhaps some rime ice due to foggy..windy..below freezing conditions. INFACT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 3CAT 6Z TO -7C BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...H85 WINDS ON BOTHTHE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER SINCE THIS TIMEYESTERDAY...INCREASING FROM 25 KTS ON YESTERDAY/S RUNS TO AS GREATAS 35 KTS ON THE NAM TODAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THEMTNS INDICATE MOISTURE ONLY IN THE LOWEST 2KT WITH A H75 INVERSIONAS GREAT AS 2C. A PURE TOP DOWN APPLICATION WOULD SUPPORT ONLYFZRA/FZDZ AS THE P-TYPE FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN BORDERCOUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE REVEALS THAT A TEXT BOOK APPROACH TONWF PRECIP DOES NOT ALWAYS YIELD THE BEST FORECAST. I ANTICIPATETHAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN/FZRA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THENMIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SNOW GRAINS AROUND DAWN. AS MOISTURE ERODESAFTER SUNRISE...UPSLOPE AREAS MAY OBSERVE FZDZ AND RIME ICING UNTILNOON. OVERALL...SNOW ALONG THE TN LINE MAY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.5 OFAN INCH. FREEZING RAIN/DZ WILL BE MORE COMMON...ACCUMULATIONSREMAINING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYAPPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED...I WILL ADD NORTHERN JACKSON CO.ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND COOL ONSUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THEU30S TO L40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Winds are ripping out of the NW and the temp is falling. You can see the moisture banking up against the Apps on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Down to 34.1° with very light flurries currently in Weaverville this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I found the NWS Greenville forecast discussion rather interesting. As previously note, some of the forecast soundings that I have been looking at really don't match the reality in NW upslope events. I see that they added my mtn top to the winter advisory (Northern Jackson) but not really expecting anything there tomorrow morning except perhaps some rime ice due to foggy..windy..below freezing conditions. IN FACT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 3C AT 6Z TO -7C BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...H85 WINDS ON BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...INCREASING FROM 25 KTS ON YESTERDAY/S RUNS TO AS GREAT AS 35 KTS ON THE NAM TODAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MTNS INDICATE MOISTURE ONLY IN THE LOWEST 2KT WITH A H75 INVERSION AS GREAT AS 2C. A PURE TOP DOWN APPLICATION WOULD SUPPORT ONLY FZRA/FZDZ AS THE P-TYPE FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE REVEALS THAT A TEXT BOOK APPROACH TO NWF PRECIP DOES NOT ALWAYS YIELD THE BEST FORECAST. I ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN/FZRA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SNOW GRAINS AROUND DAWN. AS MOISTURE ERODES AFTER SUNRISE...UPSLOPE AREAS MAY OBSERVE FZDZ AND RIME ICING UNTIL NOON. OVERALL...SNOW ALONG THE TN LINE MAY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.5 OF AN INCH. FREEZING RAIN/DZ WILL BE MORE COMMON...ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED...I WILL ADD NORTHERN JACKSON CO. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND COOL ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. As a follow-up to this..this morning NWS forecast discussion: NOW FOR THE MTNS...DESPITE ALL SCIENCE TO THE CONTRARY...SNOW IS NOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD BE FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BASED ON SFC TEMPS. SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A DUSTING. VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Down to 34.1° with very light flurries currently in Weaverville this AM. Mid 20's...dusting of snow on the mtn top this morning with a layer of fog below the ridge top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Man do I love living in the mountains. Wow when I left work this morning there was nothing at all. Clear blue sky and windy. I got about 2 miles from home and hit light to moderate snow and I got home everything is covered. Cars patio table and the grass has a heavy dusting on it with the temp down to 29 degrees and still snowing! Again man I love living in the mountains! What a beautiful morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Man do I love living in the mountains. Wow when I left work this morning there was nothing at all. Clear blue sky and windy. I got about 2 miles from home and hit light to moderate snow and I got home everything is covered. Cars patio table and the grass has a heavy dusting on it with the temp down to 29 degrees and still snowing! Again man I love living in the mountains! What a beautiful morning! In this pic this morning..you can just barely make out the dusting of snow. Note the season total is only 4". That has got to be the lowest snow total of any mtn above 6000 feet in the state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ya pretty poor Mike. Still snowing lightly. This pattern has not been very good for snow down this way. Maybe that will change in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Our season started late last year but it was cold even in the enf of May. Hit a couple great upslope events st soco gap. Looking to buy some property up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Our season started late last year but it was cold even in the enf of May. Hit a couple great upslope events st soco gap. Looking to buy some property up there. Ya I think we will be ok. Just stinks we cannot cash in on the cold air like most have recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ya pretty poor mike. Still snowing lightly. This pattern has not been very good for snow down this way. Maybe that will change in January. Concerned. The SE ridge...lack of Negative NAO etc is getting in the way of all the exceptionally cold air that is currently present across the North..and likely to hang around into January at least from amounting to much snow in NC. Great for Michigan...Crap for NC. Still-it can only get better from here and it would be just plain weird if the pattern doesn't change into something much more favorable at some point this season. Chance I might head down later this week to take advantage of the expected heat wave to get some work done up top if I can dodge inbetween snowstorms in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ya I think we will be ok. Just stinks we cannot cash in on the cold air like most have recently.yeah but our season really never gets going until after Christmas. Remember march is a more wintry month than dec. The first half of April can get snowy as well. Especially if we can get some blocking as the seasonal jet works south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Concerned. The SE ridge...lack of Negative NAO etc is getting in the way of all the exceptionally cold air that is currently present across the North..and likely to hung around into January at least from amounting to much snow in NC. Great for Michigan...Crap for NC. Still-it can only get better from here and it would be just plain weird if the pattern doesn't change into something much more favorable at some point this season. Chance I might head down later this week to take advantage of the expected heat wave to get some work done up top if I can dodge inbetween snowstorms in Michigan. Lol ya looks to be on the warm side of things next week. I am thinking the same thing, I mean the AO and the NAO have been positive for the most part since August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 yeah but our season really never gets going until after Christmas. Remember march is a more wintry month than dec. The first half of April can get snowy as well. Especially if we can get some blocking as the seasonal jet works south. Ya I agree. Funny watching everyone get so worked up here in December about the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 By the way still snowing at an impressive rate this morning. We have had light to moderate snow all morning so far. Everything for the most part is still covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ya I agree. Funny watching everyone get so worked up here in December about the current pattern.I really don't understand somehow winter has went from being djfm to Oct nov and dec. Too many people got spoiled in the Decembers of 09, 10. Seems like some think we should have the same climo as Hudson bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 I really don't understand somehow winter has went from being djfm to Oct nov and dec. Too many people got spoiled in the Decembers of 09, 10. Seems like some think we should have the same climo as Hudson bay. Lol ya even here in the mountains we dont start hitting our stride until after Christmas usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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