Hvward Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Good call around here my mountain folk. Everyone contributing didn't expect much if anything from this event, no one hyped it up due to outliers, and we got what was expected! If you never set yourself up for disappointment, then anything that falls is a bonus. Long range models look promising so I look forward to tracking more, thank to everyone who provides input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Good call around here my mountain folk. Everyone contributing didn't expect much if anything from this event, no one hyped it up due to outliers, and we got what was expected! If you never set yourself up for disappointment, then anything that falls is a bonus. Long range models look promising so I look forward to tracking more, thank to everyone who provides input. The bolded is the key word. We really never do very well with Cad setups like what we saw. I really never was felling it much anyway like Mike. We have seen an insane amount of rainfall the past month after a very dry period from August through October. I do like the pattern going forward. I like the way the Euro is handling the trough in the East through a good portion of the run and the GFS has a lot of energy rolling around in the southern stream as Robert from wxsouth has stated it is going to get busy with this pattern coming up and cold also. We have a big temp departure right know but I see that we are going to be below normal for a good bit coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Been a crazy amount of rain up top (about 1 foot in the last 30 days.) and seems like gales are starting to hit the mountain every 3 days or so. Wind storm Friday night caused some tree damage. Another wind storm tomorrow morning possible with some hurricane force gusts suggested by the NAM. Lots of weather..but not really much Winter to talk about. The GFS suggests a very high elevation(5500 feet+) snowfall possible this coming Saturday..in the 6 to 10" range. Euro not on board but worth watching how this possible scenario develops. Crazy Mike. I like the pattern coming up. We will see what we can squeeze out in this upcoming couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 welcome to the rain forest of sw nc mike. What got you interested in this area? A trip to the area back in 1988. I hit fog on the road to Mt. Mitchell that was so bad I couldn't see to the end of the hood on the car! I had no idea that mtns in NC were so much higher/had so much more interesting weather than where I grew up in Virginia. I actually have a pic taken with Mt. Lyn Lowry in the background from the Blue Ridge Parkway..the same mtn top that I would purchase 25 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thoughts on snow chances tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thoughts on snow chances tomorrow? I think we may see some on the backside of the precip. The GFS has been coming around to that but not much snow accumulation that I see right know. Could be a bit of ice also before changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thoughts on snow chances tomorrow? Nil? AVL NAM BUFKIT sounding would indicate nothing at all. Very thin moist layer when temps drop below 0 C. Very narrow period of time. No snow growth in the clouds. Maybe something on the TN line that the model sounding doesn't accurate depict...mostly rime ice. The GFS doesn't look any better. I'm somewhat doubtful of even any flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looking at radar and observations..some light snow may have commenced in the Smokies as temps have dropped below freezing. There is currently about a ten degree drop across the Park with Knoxville radar showing some light returns moving in. (32 degrees at Newfound Gap.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snowing on top of Sugar. Good for them and hopefully all the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Some snow flurries on the mtn currently but based on SAT/Radar-it looks to be already about over. I'm guessing LeConte did pick up an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 34 and a moderate flizzard in the last hour here at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Some snow flurries on the mtn currently but based on SAT/Radar-it looks to be already about over. I'm guessing LeConte did pick up an inch or so. 34 and a moderate flizzard in the last hour here at the house Ya guys we had some snow showers around here also. Nothing big but was blowing around. The switch has been flipped. Current temp down to 23 degrees with gust winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Some snow flurries on the mtn currently but based on SAT/Radar-it looks to be already about over. I'm guessing LeConte did pick up an inch or so. LeConte did get their one inch of snow: http://www.highonleconte.com/1/post/2013/12/light-it-up-like-were-the-stars-of-the-human-race.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nice Mike. We had a pretty cold morning with a low of 13 degrees. Winter is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 The system this weekend has got my attention. I think we could see several inches from this setup. I think the models keep trending colder and that is very good for the mountain folk. I have seen many forecasts bust in this type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Are you thinking on the back side of the front '85? GSP thinking up to 2 inches on Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Are you thinking on the back side of the front '85? GSP thinking up to 2 inches on Sunday afternoon Well both but the GFS has snow coming in on the front side for several hours by the 12z model. Maybe 4-6 hours of snow maybe more depending on how long we can hold onto the cold air. Like you said I like the backside with some snow coming in as the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I am liking what they are showing also '85. If we can get the low to track to the east of the apps then I really think we will be in business. Models show cold air chasing right now but hopefully that will shift or we can get a decent deformation band to set up on the backside. The most encouraging thing to me is where the low seems to be tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 I am liking what they are showing also '85. If we can get the low to track to the east of the apps then I really think we will be in business. Models show cold air chasing right now but hopefully that will shift or we can get a decent deformation band to set up on the backside. The most encouraging thing to me is where the low seems to be tracking. Ya I agree on the backside but I think there is merit for this to start out as a good thump of snow on the front side also. Will be interesting to see how this trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 This is from the NWS Hazardous outlook. They also have rain and snow in the forecast Saturday night through Sunday. SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILLBE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ONSUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINES WILL FALLING TEMPERATURESBEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12Z GGEM agreeing with 12Z GFS with some front end wintry precip for WNC mtns...still waiting for Dr. No Any other free Euro sites besides wunderground? Am liking the sound of that above 85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 12Z GGEM agreeing with 12Z GFS with some front end wintry precip for WNC mtns...still waiting for Dr. No Ya Euro looks to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This is from the NWS Hazardous outlook. They also have rain and snow in the forecast Saturday night through Sunday. SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINES WILL FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. Looking at model soundings..the front end of the storm looks more interesting to me. Several hours of heavy wet snow are possible on the mtn tops Saturday morning above 5500 feet if the models verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Interesting it looks like some snow right at the boarder with this front coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS does look promising for a few snow showers developing overnight. Cannot believe I did not see this earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS does look promising for a few snow showers developing overnight. Cannot believe I did not see this earlier. Did anything develop? (Been distracted by Michigan weather-you would love it-snow every day this week-only about 4 degrees currently! ) I see winds this morning at Grandfather are gusting to 67 mph. Brrr! Looked at the NAM/GFS..still suggests several hours of heavy mtn top wet snow Saturday. Nothing really on the backside of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like the 12Z NAM bringing in more upslope snow than previous runs for most of the day on Sunday (7am to 7pm for the northern mtns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like the 12Z NAM bringing in more upslope snow than previous runs for most of the day on Sunday (7am to 7pm for the northern mtns) I guess I'm not feeling the love. Inversions are low-right around mtn top level..winds no more than 20 to 25 knots..marginal for upslope..and cloud temps will be on the warm side.(Snow grains? Freezing drizzle?) (See attached 12 Z NAM for Knoxville. Note the 0 C isotherm.) A similar scenario to this did produce upslope snow but very shadowing on most of the NC side of the mtns. (Moisture trapped in TN perhaps by the low temperature inversion.) Looks like this event will last a little longer so perhaps 3" at LeConte and only flurries on my Mtn. Little better near Beech.(Of course-as I mentioned previously- the frontside of the storm could produce several wet inches at the highest elevations.) One thing though-I am starting to suspect that the model soundings may not really be doing a good job at depicting what is going on at the higher elevations. One thing I hope to use is realtime data from balloon sounding launches from Poga Mtn. They will be launched during significant events this Winter. (I doubt one will be launched Sunday.) Will keep an eye on this. Data can be accessed here: http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Geesh Mike...Thanks...Great explanation with data to back it up! Just out of curiosity, whats the typical snow ratio with our wind driven upslope snows? I noticed the 09Z SREF was showing up to .15" of post-front moisture for the northern mtns for a 9-hr period. What would this equate in snow for that time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Geesh Mike...Thanks...Great explanation with data to back it up! Just out of curiosity, whats the typical snow ratio with our wind driven upslope snows? I noticed the 09Z SREF was showing up to .15" of post-front moisture for the northern mtns for a 9-hr period. What would this equate in snow for that time period? Not sure. I have seen some discussion but don't have it handy. As you know it can be crazy fluffy at times. (40 to 60 to 1.) Climatology is about 10 to 1 for this area http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm That is why it is so important to look at snow growth regions in the cloud layers and if any omega present there to be able to make a guess at the fluff factor. I think I would use 15 to 1 for this upcoming system on back end..8 to 1 on the front end. I did go back and looked at some more upslope guidance. It suggests that when 850 temps are in the -2 to -6 C range..expect mostly flurries. That is what is showing for temps in this upcoming scenario. It does mention that moisture above 850 mb isn't required but will be present during substantial events. The true soundings would probably show a spike of moisture much higher than depicted in the vicinity of the TN line which would change the equation somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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