WNC_Fort Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well dang I guess I could have made it up to UNCA today, it isn't very often that we get snow and you guys don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sorry to hear that guys, we are right at 6" here in Boone and it's still snowing. Temp has been between 28-30 all night and it has snowed pretty good through the night. These must be some very low ratios because this stuff is like cement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Temps actually dropped a little last night here. Woke to about 4 inches and still snowing lightly even though temps are at freezing(32.2). Very pretty snow. Stuck to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Tally for Yancey Co. schools this year- 23 - snow days (closed) 11 - 2 hour delays 2 - 3 hour delays 4 - early dismissals (2 before 10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Asheville BUFKIT NAM sounding came in slightly cooler at the 800 mb level such that almost entire event would fall as snow at 6000 feet and above dumping 2 foot amounts on Mt. Mitchell. EDIT: GFS is drastically drier than NAM solution. 6" amounts seem likely with this solution. The NAM is probably too wet..the coarse GFS probably too dry so 1 foot totals on the mtn tops might be about right. Mt Mitchell ended up with 15" of snow-very pleased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Mt Mitchell ended up with 15" of snow-very pleased! Yes. Nice to see Yancey Co. get the gold and silver medals. I only got 4 inches of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yes. Nice to see Yancey Co. get the gold and silver medals. I only got 4 inches of course. Sure would be nice to see a model that actually handled the weather correctly around the Yancy Co area. I guess the grids on all models including HRRR are simply too coarse to properly account for wind, temp and precipitation patterns in such mountainous terrain. There have been several events on Mt Mitchell this season that really were rather hard to understand/explain. I do know that we will be able to get 3 hour updates on the actual concentration of snow flakes falling in the clouds over the mountains during next Winter available from the new NASA GPM satellite website. It will be way cool..finally showing precip images unaffected by radar beam blockage etc and which will be accurately calibrated from ground base observations. http://pmm.nasa.gov/GPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Mt Mitchell ended up with 15" of snow-very pleased! Will be cross country skiing if possible off the Parkway near Mitchell tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Will be cross country skiing if possible off the Parkway near Mitchell tomorrow ! man, that sounds great!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Thanks for the storm totals Mike. We ended up with about 3 inches of snow over the whole event. Was a nice surprise considering we are not suppose to get much here in Haywood. Looking down the road looks like we could see something brewing for next week with a big trough carving out in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Let's throw in a freezing fog advisory this winter......might as well. GSP SWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW THEFREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLSOF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAYMORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE DENSEFOG FORMATION MAY COMBINE WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TOPRODUCE PATCHY BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. IFTHE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A FREEZINGFOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Let's throw in a freezing fog advisory this winter......might as well. I have seen it all!!! Man, what a winter!!! GSP SWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FORMATION MAY COMBINE WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE PATCHY BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah, driving through freezing fog on the way home was... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 isn't there a system for the mtns. next Thursday, Jason was talking snow and colder for the 13th. maybe everyone is out enjoying the sun and warmth, but winter is not over for the mtns. yet, as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 isn't there a system for the mtns. next Thursday, Jason was talking snow and colder for the 13th. maybe everyone is out enjoying the sun and warmth, but winter is not over for the mtns. yet, as we all know. Yep I was just going to comment that it looks like a decent setup for some upslope snow next Thursday. Yes it look pretty cold behind the system also. Probably teens for lows in the mountains. Models seem to be trending digging the trough a little deeper which will help will force up over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 00z still looks good for the Thursday event. Boy is it going to be cold also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Also has is trying to blow a system up around the 18th also. Wow just bombs the thing out. That would be on check of a snowstorm for use. Wow long range but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Lol what a weenie run to US on the 00z GFS. Wow the system meanders to the north then we have cold air in place and. System comes out of the gulf. Lol of course for pure entertainment only but that would be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 EURO looks very similar to the GFS. I think the next two weeks could be very interesting for us in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 EURO looks very similar to the GFS. I think the next two weeks could be very interesting for us in the mountains. Agreed just posted about that in the pattern discussion thread. Euro spit out a fantasy snowfall clown map @ day 9-10 that looked very similar to what it was putting out the last two big storms (even though this last one wasn't to big for many of us). A note on that last storm, below is a map showing where Busick, NC (Elevation 2800') is. They got 10" of snow. Its amazing how the moisture just funneled to this area where the cold air happened to be in place. I just thought it was interesting that most of us got no snow where this town pretty much in the middle of all of us cashed in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Ya thanks for sharing pretty interesting and neat for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Agreed just posted about that in the pattern discussion thread. Euro spit out a fantasy snowfall clown map @ day 9-10 that looked very similar to what it was putting out the last two big storms (even though this last one wasn't to big for many of us). A note on that last storm, below is a map showing where Busick, NC (Elevation 2800') is. They got 10" of snow. Its amazing how the moisture just funneled to this area where the cold air happened to be in place. I just thought it was interesting that most of us got no snow where this town pretty much in the middle of all of us cashed in big time. That last thousand feet in the boundary layer killed what would have been a massive snow for the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Busick is about 18 miles from my house if I travel up NC 80...My location ended up with .92 liquid QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 well looks like GSP took the snow out of the forecast for asheville that they did have us in for Thursday. I guess we're fighting climo, higher sun angle. everything starting to work against us guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I am reasonably confident we have at least one more backside upslope and one more additional snow in the NC High Country before winter wraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well a couple of things today I have noticed. First Thursday is going to be COLD. I mean a shock to the system. Also the Euro brings back the storm for around the 18th also for NC. We have a long way to go before old man winter hangs it up this year. I also like our chances at seeing some snow Wednesday night around the mountains. My forecast low is sitting at 19 degrees right know. Would not rule out some single digits also. Another thing with this storm having legs is the NAO and the AO both look to go negative around the 17th and 18th. If this verifies then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well a couple of things today I have noticed. First Thursday is going to be COLD. I mean a shock to the system. Also the Euro brings back the storm for around the 18th also for NC. We have a long way to go before old man winter hangs it up this year. I also like our chances at seeing some snow Wednesday night around the mountains. My forecast low is sitting at 19 degrees right know. Would not rule out some single digits also. Another thing with this storm having legs is the NAO and the AO both look to go negative around the 17th and 18th. If this verifies then watch out. Yeah met I think the high mountains will get 2-4" on Wednesday night but the valley only maybe .5"-1" if anything. I am very interested in the 17th-18th storm. All models currently show something moving through and with the Euro Ensemble support, I feel like this is a legit threat. One thing that worries me and is something I am still learning about is the warm nose over Asheville. Last storm I refused to give it a ton of weight even when it began to show up on the models, and it ended up killed our snow last time. Bad news is that it looks to be showing up already for this storm. Now I wouldn't be to concerned considering we are 7 day out but it is showing up on the temp charts and this is what will limit our snow. One good sign (maybe) is that the warm nose only showed up 1-2 days before the last event so there is still a ton of time for it to go away. Just thought I would mention it since I have been doing some research on how to forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 how is it looking for snow in the mtns. around the 17th. do we still have a storm and if so I've read where this time we'll have more cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 how is it looking for snow in the mtns. around the 17th. do we still have a storm and if so I've read where this time we'll have more cold air to work with. Models mostly lost threat of snow(not the storm) for the mountains but Euro Ensemble improved overall this run. Could be gone for good who knows. GFS is very suppressed but we have seen similar situations in past storms. Give it a few days... the real mets will be on here talking about the storm Thursday or Friday if it becomes a big threat. But yes, still potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Rays thoughts for this week. Courtesy of averyweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Models mostly lost threat of snow(not the storm) for the mountains but Euro Ensemble improved overall this run. Could be gone for good who knows. GFS is very suppressed but we have seen similar situations in past storms. Give it a few days... the real mets will be on here talking about the storm Thursday or Friday if it becomes a big threat. But yes, still potential.looks lime status quo. Weak offshore low again. Meh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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