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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Asheville BUFKIT NAM sounding came in slightly cooler at the 800 mb level such that almost entire event would fall as snow at 6000 feet and above dumping 2 foot amounts on Mt. Mitchell.

 

EDIT: GFS is drastically drier than NAM solution.  6" amounts seem likely with this solution.  

 

The NAM is probably too wet..the coarse GFS probably too dry so 1 foot totals on the mtn tops might be about right.

 

Mt Mitchell ended up with 15" of snow-very pleased!  :sled:

post-9361-0-15737200-1394216262_thumb.jp

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Yes. Nice to see Yancey Co. get the gold and silver medals. I only got 4 inches of course.  :axe:

 

Sure would be nice to see a model that actually handled the weather correctly around the Yancy Co area. I guess the grids on all models including HRRR are simply too coarse to properly account for wind, temp and precipitation patterns in such mountainous terrain. There have been several events on Mt Mitchell this season that really were rather hard to understand/explain. I do know that we will be able to get 3 hour updates on the actual concentration of snow flakes falling in the clouds over the mountains during next Winter available from the new NASA GPM satellite website.  It will be way cool..finally showing precip images unaffected by radar beam blockage etc and which will be accurately calibrated from ground base observations. http://pmm.nasa.gov/GPM

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Let's throw in a freezing fog advisory this winter......might as well.

 

 

GSP SWS

 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG FORMATION MAY COMBINE WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE PATCHY BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. IF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

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Let's throw in a freezing fog advisory this winter......might as well.

I have seen it all!!! Man, what a winter!!!

GSP SWS

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE

FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS

OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY

MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE DENSE

FOG FORMATION MAY COMBINE WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO

PRODUCE PATCHY BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. IF

THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A FREEZING

FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

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isn't there a system for the mtns. next Thursday, Jason was talking snow and colder for the 13th.  maybe everyone is out enjoying the sun and warmth, but winter is not over for the mtns. yet, as we all know. 

Yep I was just going  to comment that it looks like a decent setup for some upslope snow next Thursday.  Yes it look  pretty cold behind the system also. Probably teens for lows in the mountains. Models seem to be trending digging the trough a little deeper which will help will force up over the mountains.

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EURO looks very similar to the GFS. I think the next two weeks could be very interesting for us in the mountains.

 

Agreed just posted about that in the pattern discussion thread.  Euro spit out a fantasy snowfall clown map @ day 9-10 that looked very similar to what it was putting out the last two big storms (even though this last one wasn't to big for many of us).  A note on that last storm, below is a map showing where Busick, NC (Elevation 2800') is.  They got 10" of snow.  Its amazing how the moisture just funneled to this area where the cold air happened to be in place.  I just thought it was interesting that most of us got no snow where this town pretty much in the middle of all of us cashed in big time.

 

v5wax2.jpg

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Agreed just posted about that in the pattern discussion thread.  Euro spit out a fantasy snowfall clown map @ day 9-10 that looked very similar to what it was putting out the last two big storms (even though this last one wasn't to big for many of us).  A note on that last storm, below is a map showing where Busick, NC (Elevation 2800') is.  They got 10" of snow.  Its amazing how the moisture just funneled to this area where the cold air happened to be in place.  I just thought it was interesting that most of us got no snow where this town pretty much in the middle of all of us cashed in big time.

 

v5wax2.jpg

 

 

That last thousand feet in the boundary layer killed what would have been a massive snow for the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Busick is about 18 miles from my house if I travel up NC 80...My location ended up with .92 liquid QPF.

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Well a couple of things today I have noticed. First Thursday is going to be COLD. I mean a shock to the system. Also the Euro brings back the storm for around the 18th also for NC. We have a long way to go before old man winter hangs it up this year. I also like our chances at seeing some snow Wednesday night around the mountains. My forecast low is sitting at 19 degrees right know. Would not rule out some single digits also. Another thing with this storm having legs is the NAO and the AO both look to go negative around the 17th and 18th. If this verifies then watch out.

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Well a couple of things today I have noticed. First Thursday is going to be COLD. I mean a shock to the system. Also the Euro brings back the storm for around the 18th also for NC. We have a long way to go before old man winter hangs it up this year. I also like our chances at seeing some snow Wednesday night around the mountains. My forecast low is sitting at 19 degrees right know. Would not rule out some single digits also. Another thing with this storm having legs is the NAO and the AO both look to go negative around the 17th and 18th. If this verifies then watch out.

 

Yeah met I think the high mountains will get 2-4" on Wednesday night but the valley only maybe .5"-1" if anything.  I am very interested in the 17th-18th storm.  All models currently show something moving through and with the Euro Ensemble support, I feel like this is a legit threat.  One thing that worries me and is something I am still learning about is the warm nose over Asheville.  Last storm I refused to give it a ton of weight even when it began to show up on the models, and it ended up killed our snow last time.   Bad news is that it looks to be showing up already for this storm.  Now I wouldn't be to concerned considering we are 7 day out but it is showing up on the temp charts and this is what will limit our snow.  One good sign (maybe) is that the warm nose only showed up 1-2 days before the last event so there is still a ton of time for it to go away.  Just thought I would mention it since I have been doing some research on how to forecast it.

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how is it looking for snow in the mtns. around the 17th.  do we still have a storm and if so I've read where this time we'll have more cold air to work with.

 

Models mostly lost threat of snow(not the storm) for the mountains but Euro Ensemble improved overall this run.  Could be gone for good who knows. GFS is very suppressed but we have seen similar situations in past storms.  Give it a few days... the real mets will be on here talking about the storm Thursday or Friday if it becomes a big threat.  But yes, still potential.

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Models mostly lost threat of snow(not the storm) for the mountains but Euro Ensemble improved overall this run. Could be gone for good who knows. GFS is very suppressed but we have seen similar situations in past storms. Give it a few days... the real mets will be on here talking about the storm Thursday or Friday if it becomes a big threat. But yes, still potential.

looks lime status quo. Weak offshore low again. Meh!
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