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2nd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains


Met1985

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Wow. Went from snow to sleet to rain in a 30min window. The WWA for N GA is saying 2500' ft and up will change to all snow by midnight. Still calling for 2-3" as well. Been pretty busy so I don't know the full story with this storm but it looks loaded with some nice spin. Looks like the mnts could really ring the moisture out.

 

A new definition of 5 posted.

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are we going to change back over to snow later ?  I think when the storm gets wrapped up pretty good it will drag more cold air into the system.

I'm thinking no.

 

AS OF 655 PM EST THURSDAY...THE GRIDS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OF

CAPTURING THE PCPN TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE GETTING

REPORTS OF SNOW OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO

THE CENTRAL FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THE 0.5 DEG CC DUAL-POL DATA ON THE

WSR88D SHOWS A LINE OF VERY LOW CC/S ADVANCING TO THE NORTHWEST

ACROSS TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON AND CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES. THIS

APPEARS TO BE THE SNOW/SLEET LINE. IF THIS IS INDEED THE CASE...THEN

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM NOSE OF THE NAM WOULD BE VERIFYING. THIS

WOULD MEAN MORE OF A SLEET THAN SNOW THREAT AND A WARMER THERMAL

PROFILE IN GENERAL WHICH COULD SEVERE TO LIMIT...AT LEAST TO AN

EXTENT...THE WINTER STORM THREAT OF ALL THREE WINTRY PCPN TYPES.

HOWEVER...I/M CERTAINLY NOT ABOUT TO BACK AWAY FROM ANY WARNING OR

ADVISORY PRODUCTS YET. WHILE EARLY MARCH IN NOT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY

FAVORED TIME OF YEAR FOR ICE STORMS...THE GEFS SOUNDINGS HAVE A LOT

OF ICE IN THEM AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHERE THE 32

DEG SFC WET BULBS SET UP UNDER THE HEAVIER PCPN. WE CERTAINLY STILL

HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND

FOOTHILLS NORTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTE.

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Just isn't happening for me up towards Weaverville. Very little snow & a mostly sleet, rain event so far. Temp is 34.3° and my humidity is still under 70%. Guess the bright side is I still have room for some wet bulb. Looks like GSP is going to nail my pinpoint forecast. Hope most of you cash!

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Where are you Jacob? Just rain here in W. Asheville.... not even a pellet of sleet. Maybe heavier rates will show up and turn us back to snow.

 

Henderson County. Just south of town. Pretty sure it is due to the rates. Pretty sure this is going to be a big bust for the southern/central mountains though.

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Henderson County. Just south of town. Pretty sure it is due to the rates.

 

 

Nice. Well, good luck man. I think I am going to call it a night. I hope it keeps going for you.

 

One more thing that could be promising if rates increase.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 825 PM EST THURSDAY...THE 00 UTC GSO SOUNDING CAME IN LOOKING

MORE LIKE THE COLDER GFS...THOUGH THE FFC SOUNDING LOOKED MORE LIKE

THE NAM. THEREFORE...THERE IS A SHARP 850MB FRONT OVER THE REGION.

IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE WARM NOSE HAS STOPPED ADVANCING NORTHWARD

ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHERN MCDOWELL TO CENTRAL BURKE AND SOUTHEAST

CALDWELL COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS

WELL...THOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TN LINE MAY BE SEEING

MAINLY RAIN. I KEPT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WHEN

UPDATING THE PCPN ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH I DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS A

LITTLE IN THIS AREA AS I EXPECT MORE SLEET TO MIX IN OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN LINE FROM THE DAY SHIFT STILL LOOKS

GOOD. VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...THOUGH I DID INCREASE ICE

ACCUMULATIONS JUST A HAIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTE. SO

OVERALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AS A PERIOD OF

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE

NC/SC LINE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EVEN THOUGH THE DAMAGING ICE

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THERE. I HAVEN/T HEARD

MUCH FROM TRANSYLVANIA OR HENDERSON COUNTIES...BUT MESONET

OBSERVATIONS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND THEY SHOULD BE SEEING

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS.

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