MikeGold Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at various thermal profiles this morning..looks to me in almost any scenario..elevations above 5500 feet may absolutely get slammed by this event. At my mtn top level...looking at generally 0 to 1 C for almost the whole event with cooler temps above. A foot of wet snow seems quite possible. The NAM solution would throw in about 60 mph winds tomorrow morning just to add to the fun. For those looking at bufkit and other sounding data..this slide is useful to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If I have to hike to reach the snow line I swear I will.lol. Brasstown Mountain is literally in eyesight. Might just have to camp above 4000'. Or I could just drive on up to NC. Thanks Mikegold for the great info. One thing I'm in for is a virtual rainforest this summer in my location. Average of around 70" of rain yearly. That in itself will be super cool! Your welcome! I hope you enjoy the rainforest. My mtn top was crushed with over 110" of rain last year although much of it fell during the Winter time during strong SW low-level jet situations. Summer accumulations are much more modest as areas near the Blue Ridge such as Lake Toxoway receive the better rainfall during the Summer months while the Central mtns are shielded somewhat. The lowest elevations at Gorges State Park probably feel the most like a rain forest in the Eastern U.S. due to the combination of almost daily showers that fall there in the Summer plus the sub-tropical vegetation that is found as well. It does look like your area is an initiation spot for thunderstorms as depicted by study that was done specifically for the Athens Georgia radar site during the month of July. Second map shows lightning flash densities. It should be apparent that storms typically form along the Escarpment or lee trough and either stay stationary..drift to the NW and dissipate or forms lines moving off to the East. As a storm chaser, I absolutely love determining ahead of time exactly where the first convection of the day will form. For fun this Summer-you might want to give it a try. Use your meteorology skills to see if you can figure it out and drive to the spot to see how your forecast verifies. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Guys am I crazy to think this could be 6-10" for a lot of folks along the northern blue ridge? Say from Boone to Jefferson? Sure seems possible with the trends I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Guys am I crazy to think this could be 6-10" for a lot of folks along the northern blue ridge? Say from Boone to Jefferson? Sure seems possible with the trends I'm seeing 12Z NAM develops a warm nose over that area fairly quickly so sleet is probably favored over snow with that particular model. (I recall that the 06 GFS was colder than the NAM.) As for the threat of heavy snow-this may really end up being an extreme elevation event with only the highest elevations above the warm nose. Mt. Mitchell could end up with a crazy amount of snow in this setup. My mtn top not as much as the total QPF will be much less due to more of a SE to E to NE low level wind components..all of which nail Mt. Mitchell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Any maps guys? Wow this one will surely be surprising some people this morning when they watch the news, seems JulienWunder is still underplaying it though wlos seems to always underplay these events until they're practically on top of us. From everything I'm reading I think this will stay all snow for all of the mtns. and a lot of it. 6-12 heavy wet snow. Robert says major winter storm for a lot of folks around here. mostly snow for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Winter weather advisory for 2-3" snow from 2500'ft up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Winter weather advisory for 2-3" snow from 2500'ft up. Nice Dave! Euro ensemble was up to 8" with the deterministic around 13" for KAVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hopefully the warm nose isn't in place for few hours so we can sneak in good burst of snow in Asheville... I'm not all in for snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Anyone up for making some predictions? It's almost time to ditch the models and just see what's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Anyone up for making some predictions? It's almost time to ditch the models and just see what's happening I made my call yesterday but I still think 4"-6"+ is a good estimate for the area. More in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm going with 1-3 inches of snow with some sleet and freezing rain mixed in another 1/2 inch. Snow forecast is conservative, especially if the warm nose fail to show up for few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I made my call yesterday but I still think 4"-6"+ is a good estimate for the area. More in higher elevations. I say from reading a couple of guys lingo that are reliable sources if its mostly snow as they are saying 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I say from reading a couple of guys lingo that are reliable sources if its mostly snow as they are saying 8-12 Yeah I agree if its all snow we could get that much. I just have a hard time wrapping my brain around that warm nose not at least hurting out accumulation a little at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Talking to friends and family they all think Im BSIng. So to say if anything on the higher end of predictions and models comes to be there will be a lot of surprised people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 AH's (Raliegh) map in the main thread looks really good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here's the thing... KAVL is starting to stall at 34-35 now. Clouds are also pretty thick here too so that'll limit the temperature too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Asheville BUFKIT NAM sounding came in slightly cooler at the 800 mb level such that almost entire event would fall as snow at 6000 feet and above dumping 2 foot amounts on Mt. Mitchell. EDIT: GFS is drastically drier than NAM solution. 6" amounts seem likely with this solution. The NAM is probably too wet..the coarse GFS probably too dry so 1 foot totals on the mtn tops might be about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Temps look better, but precip looks somewhat limited now. Is it just me or is the RAP pretty far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, things are looking drier for WNC... of course :\ I just got 13 degrees for dew point outside my dorm. I also got 42 degrees too, which is 3 degrees higher than UNCA station. I am not liking the trends for anything significant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Me either :/. But again we still have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is why I was so skeptical about big snow here yesterday. Stuff like this is always happening to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I am unimpressed with the radar down south but perhaps it's not an indications of what will be happening later? Maybe it can buff up the precip as the day/night go on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Euro got 6-12 inches for Bumcombe County... but if you use 5:1 ratio, it's down to 3-6 inches plus you got sleet/ZR to cut it down to 1-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Euro got 6-12 inches for Bumcombe County... but if you use 5:1 ratio, it's down to 3-6 inches plus you got sleet/ZR to cut it down to 1-4 inches. The 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Euro is definitely not dry for WNC east into the foothills and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Come on guys... no cliff diving just yet. It is a nowcast situation from here on out. No one knows whats going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The 12z euro? Yeah, it's showing KAVL with 12 inches. Euro is definitely not dry for WNC east into the foothills and piedmont. 1 inch precip is not dry at all for downtown Ashevilee at all. KAVL at 1.4 inch. Come on guys... no cliff diving just yet. It is a nowcast situation from here on out. No one knows whats going to happen. I wasn't cliff diving I said 1-3 inches of snow right? Of course we could just as easily see more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Come on guys... no cliff diving just yet. It is a nowcast situation from here on out. No one knows whats going to happen. Agreed. The models arent of significant importance at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is the Euro good in the short range though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agreed. The models arent of significant importance at this point. True, but I still don't like the look from short range models if we want big snow. Is the Euro good in the short range though? Well... you don't usually trust models this close to event... Euro is the king for medium range, but it's a battle between NAM, GFS, and Euro for shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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