NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Still a lot of variables in play for this system. Some people are going to be surprised & some disappointed imo. Going to be a fun system to track & the backside looks to warm quickly. Edit: just went outside to warm the car & we got a skiff of snow on the ground and the cars are white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Still a lot of variables in play for this system. Some people are going to be surprised & some disappointed imo. Going to be a fun system to track & the backside looks to warm quickly. Edit: just went outside to warm the car & we got a skiff of snow on the ground and the cars are white! same here and its still snowing although lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 View from Hemp Hill this morning..just a very light dusting of snow. Seem decent riming can be seen just above the level of the clouds. The pointy peak in the far center is Mt. Pisgah. Asheville is on the far left. My mtn top is out of the picture to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Old Fort Mountain trees were covered in ice this morning I also had a nice dusting in Old Fort compared to what they got up here at UNCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Finally looks like some heavy snow possible in the Thursday evening/Friday time frame on the mtn top. If the NAM's depiction of where the Upper Low is going to be is correct.the Balsams mtns and nearby Blue Ridge might be the sweet spot..with areas further to the NE and away from the Upper low..warmer..more likely to be ice..and areas to the SW..much less precip but steeper lapse rates. Looking at the Asheville Sounding-a warm nose at ridge top level ruins most of the event but the warm layer is mostly absent as you trend SW away from Asheville. As Friday goes along the warm nose disappears but warmer surface temperature and poor snow growth are working against things in the valley areas. All in all an outside chance of up to a foot snow seems at least possible with this particular model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 This all depends on how much moisture we get, I'm still holding out hope for a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ice on trees today around 3200' and up made for beautiful scenery today. Hiked up to 3600'. Sure wish I lived that high. Any hope for N.GA mountains seeing snow friday?. I'm a NC Piedmont guy. Grew up in Rowan County. I'm new to mountain weather so pardon any dumb questions. Lol. My guess is elevation is key especially this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ice on trees today around 3200' and up made for beautiful scenery today. Hiked up to 3600'. Sure wish I lived that high. Any hope for N.GA mountains seeing snow friday?. I'm a NC Piedmont guy. Grew up in Rowan County. I'm new to mountain weather so pardon any dumb questions. Lol. My guess is elevation is key especially this time of year? Actually, in the Southland often elevation doesn't help much as unfortunately the warm Gulf of Mexico air and SW winds all too often come in at ridgetop levels and spoil the fun. This time of year and going forward-Upper Level lows and associated cold pool/steep lapse rates are what to watch for. Looking at the latest NAM..it came in much warmer aloft so chances to have any significant snow out of this next setup have diminished. It appears initially that even the ridge tops will be 1 to 2 C too warm for snow and towards the end of the event..the column cools but fails to generate moisture in the below 0 C part so no snow flakes will be formed in the clouds. EDIT: 12Z NAM came in a little cooler and much wetter for the Balsam mtn areas...really getting close to a snow/sleet mix instead of rain with a warm nose barely present at ridgetop levels for much of the event. The column turns to freezing or below right around 800 mb. (However, still plenty warm enough below that to change to ice/rain on the valley floors.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Guys, better keep one eye on this system. We are really close to getting a decent thump. If I were one of you fellas with elevation I would keep two eyes on it. With all the microclimates of the S Apps someone should cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Guys, better keep one eye on this system. We are really close to getting a decent thump. If I were one of you fellas with elevation I would keep two eyes on it. With all the microclimates of the S Apps someone should cash. Yeah Don models still haven't converged on a particular solution other then there will be moisture. I think elevation will give us all at least an hour or two of snowfall before it switches over and hopefully more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Well it's not quite there yet, but this is starting to look like it could be a major winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS just folded. Was the last one that didn't give us wintery precip. with it's setup. I think expected totals will do nothing but go up from here until the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS just folded. Was the last one that didn't give us wintery precip. with it's setup. I think expected totals will do nothing but go up from here until the event. What's your thoughts for AVL/HVL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What's your thoughts for AVL/HVL? I think we are all in for a very nice surprise. Models all seem to be correcting very quickly to a colder, more moist solution. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4-6 inches of snow across the area before it possibly ends as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 I think we are all in for a very nice surprise. Models all seem to be correcting very quickly to a colder, more moist solution. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4-6 inches of snow across the area before it possibly ends as rain. Ya would not be surprised to see something of the upper end of this for a good chunk of the mountains. Robert has a nice right up about the storm on Facebook and his website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ya would not be surprised to see something of the upper end of this for a good junk of the mountains. Robert has a nice right up about the storm on Facebook and his website. I saw that. This is going to be really fun to watch! I am looking forward to the different types of obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro Ensemble and Deterministic both up to 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro Ensemble and Deterministic both up to 5" Nice. One thing this snow will be very very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If it snows its like 6:1 ratios. Pure paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If I have to hike to reach the snow line I swear I will.lol. Brasstown Mountain is literally in eyesight. Might just have to camp above 4000'. Or I could just drive on up to NC. Thanks Mikegold for the great info. One thing I'm in for is a virtual rainforest this summer in my location. Average of around 70" of rain yearly. That in itself will be super cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF plumes for KAVL went from the highest member showing 1.4" of snow this morning to now having a highest member @ 10" with 5 members above 5". That is huge for a one day jump but kind of gives testament to how we can't necessarily trust them. They are fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think models are finally getting a sense of the location of the high pressure and how quickly it will be exiting. I'm still holding out hope this will be a big surprise to end the season, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF plumes for KAVL went from the highest member showing 1.4" of snow this morning to now having a highest member @ 10" with 5 members above 5". That is huge for a one day jump but kind of gives testament to how we can't necessarily trust them. They are fun to look at though. Yea, the average is now up to 2 inches. It's fascinating how the models can't quite seem to get a grip on this system. The 00z NAM is WET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yea, the average is now up to 2 inches. It's fascinating how the models can't quite seem to get a grip on this system. The 00z NAM is WET. imagine if that was all snow!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 imagine if that was all snow!! haha No way it will all be snow, but it looks like we could at least get a thump of snow (and maybe ice...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No way it will all be snow, but it looks like we could at least get a thump of snow (and maybe ice...) Of course it won't be. I hope this does't cripple a city that isn't ready. Good thing the warm temps rush in after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yea, the average is now up to 2 inches. It's fascinating how the models can't quite seem to get a grip on this system. The 00z NAM is WET. Yes it's wet but also very warm. The very latest soundings have a period of ZR from 7pm-midnight tomorrow for AVL then quickly changing to all rain for the rest of the event. No snow shows up on any of the soundings I just looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes it's wet but also very warm. The very latest soundings have a period of ZR from 7pm-midnight tomorrow for AVL then quickly changing to all rain for the rest of the event. No snow shows up on any of the soundings I just looked at. Nam's temps have been high around here the past few days. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As much as I really want snowstorm to get rid of Latin exam this Friday, I am not a believer yet until it's over. Maybe that's just Central NC talking inside me, but it's so sudden that I want to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WXSouth posted an update saying major snow for the mountains. Not sure if he's just referring to the Boone area, or all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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