Met1985 Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Nice cold morning this morning sitting at 12 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 14 its cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 nam and high res nam still want to bring a 35dbz band over wnc around 4am Saturday morning but the gfs and euro aren't buying it. If you remember the high res nam was dropping 2" here for yesterday morning and that didn't happen so I really don't see much reason to buy what the nam is suggesting. Even though I would love for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM/WRF is a head scratcher Saturday. Canadian RGEM is not buying it either. Looks like some sort of feedback on the NAM; outvoted 3 to 1. Most areas can forget it. However the ski areas in northwest NC, only the highest elevations, could get a picturesque dusting to set the tone for a lovely late season Saturday on the slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Special weather statement says up to 1/2" of snow. Says air will be dry though which may prevent anything at all. Still hoping for another nice storm for all of us before time runs out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, 12z Euro ensembles aren't that lame at all for Asheville for March 6th/7th. It's showing 32 members with at least 2 inches of snow with 17 of them showing at least 6 inches. Impressive this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow, 12z Euro ensembles aren't that lame at all for Asheville for March 6th/7th. It's showing 32 members with at least 2 inches of snow with 17 of them showing at least 6 inches. Impressive this far out... Yea, they look nice. It would be nice if the op joined the party though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yea, they look nice. It would be nice if the op joined the party though. 0z ensemble was less with only 4" of snow while the op got on board with 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 0z ensemble was less with only 4" of snow while the op got on board with 6" Interesting, I haven't looked at the 0z. Is the op all snow, or a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Deleted photo since it was paid and I don't know if I should post it but it looks to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Get your popcorn guys, we are in the best spot in the SE temp wise and its the end of the season so there is no reason to not go all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Get your popcorn guys, we are in the best spot in the SE temp wise and its the end of the season so there is no reason to not go all in! As long as the moisture is there, I'm all in on temps. The snow storm that is about to slam the MW and NE this weekend will keep a good snow pack down which will do nothing but cool any air being ushered in from the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 euro op gives KAVL 16" while ensemble averages 4.5" but I counted 24 members with 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I say we go all in with the average of 10.25 inches and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I say we go all in with the average of 10.25 inches and call it a day Haha that would suit me just fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just had a quick burst of the pellet like snow. Was so strange as the sky was full of stars. Very weird! Hoping for a nice dusting later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If we do get the snowstorm, I'm in big trouble as I'm leaving Asheville for home back in Central NC March 7th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just had a quick burst of the pellet like snow. Was so strange as the sky was full of stars. Very weird! Hoping for a nice dusting later tonight! Temps down to 29.1 with a dewpoint of 10.7. The mountains and dry air will eat this thing alive, but you might hang in there for a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll take it!! New Euro snowfall map from wundermap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lotta ifs & buts to come!.....the end of the week system the models are showing has my interest! Here is GSP's overnight long term. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 230 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ONTUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF LINGERING TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKUPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS...A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES RIPPLE OVER THE REGION FROM WESTTO EAST AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THESOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE LONGRANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WRT THE EVOLUTION OFTHIS TROF AS IT APPROACHES THE FCST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOWHAVE THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ANDDEVELOPING AN H5 LOW BY EARLY FRI. THEY KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THEFCST AREA THRU FRI AND FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE IT OFFSHORE BY SATMORNING WHICH IS NOW DAY 7.AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION ONTUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THRU WEDNESDAY DEVELOPING A WEDGE TYPEPATTERN IN THE PROCESS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS SPIN UP ANOTHER LOWOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS AND GRADUALLY TRACK IT NEAND OVER TH FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEMODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE IN SYNC WRTTHE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW. BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS...BY SATMORNING THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITHDRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLEFCST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP TRENDS WITH THE HIGHESTVALUES FROM THURS EVENING THRU FRI MORNING. FROZEN P-TYPES CONTINUETO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...FZ RAINAND SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH THE EVENT STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THEP-TYPE FCST IS CERTAINLY NOT SET IN STONE YET...BUT IT COULD PRODUCESOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC ZONES. THE TEMPFCST IS ALSO TRICKY WITH THE LINGERING WEDGE PATTERN. TEMPS WILLSTART OUT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY ON TUES AND LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMALTHRU FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...ITS LOOKING LIKE VALUES WILL CLIMBBACK TO CLIMO OR JUST ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro ensemble members up to 5" so thats an improvement from the 00z. Deterministic down to 1" but we will see these shifts this far out. Personally I would much rather have the ensemble rising and deterministic falling over the latter. 23 members show a 6"+ snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro ensemble members up to 5" so thats an improvement from the 00z. Deterministic down to 1" but we will see these shifts this far out. Personally I would much rather have the ensemble rising and deterministic falling over the latter. 23 members show a 6"+ snowfall. Not bad. I don't have access to the euro, but from the other thread it sounded like everything was too warm for snow. Nice to see we still have something on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not bad. I don't have access to the euro, but from the other thread it sounded like everything was too warm for snow. Nice to see we still have something on the table. Yeah I think we have the best chance to cash in if anyone does. If the 18z gfs was colder it would have been a mega dump. Models are struggling with the cold but with this precip. on monday potentially coming farther south I think that only benefits us with getting our cold down here for the latter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am really watching this one closely, I am hoping it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah I think we have the best chance to cash in if anyone does. If the 18z gfs was colder it would have been a mega dump. Models are struggling with the cold but with this precip. on monday potentially coming farther south I think that only benefits us with getting our cold down here for the latter storm. I agree. I like our positioning. The GEFS had a couple big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ended up with some sleet last night. Looks like I get robbed of snow with the system currently being discussed. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GSP is seeing something for next thursday and friday the 6-7, they have a hazardous weather outlook telling folks to stay tuned on the weather for next thursday and friday for a possible significant winter weather event. n ga. upstate sc and wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GSP's overnight LT disco: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 310 AM EST ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTA CLASSIC MILLER A TYPE LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEENTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITHREGARD TO A TIMING OF THE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE SE COAST AND PTYPE ACROSS THE CWA AS MODELS REVEAL QUIET A BIT OF SPREAD.THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WAS BASED ON THE MODEL BLEND...GIVINGMORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF DUE TO BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITHREGARD TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE PASTSEVERAL CYCLES.A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE TX EARLY WEDWILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFFAS IT REACHES IN THE VICINITY OF LA/MI BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE CANADIANIS AN OUTLIER KEEPING THE WAVE OPENED WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN ACLOSED UPPER LOW AS IT MOVE UP ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.UPPER PATTERN BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL BY FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THATWAY THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.AT THE SURFACE...A COLD 1040+MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDINTO THE NE STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SETTING UP A COLD AIRDAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOWWILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULFCOAST ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE SE COAST BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI.THE GFS IS 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/CMC WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPOCCURRING AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. TAKING A COMPROMISE...POPS RAMP UPFROM WEST TO EAST THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OFPRECIP THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ALONG THE SECOAST. P TYPE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY CHALLENGING AS THE NEWGFS TRENDED WARMER WHILE THE ECMWF TRENDED COLDER. BECAUSE THE GFSHAS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEM...HAVE GONE WITH THE ECMWFTHERMAL PROFILE TO GENERATE THE P TYPE. USING THE MONOGRAM P TYPEBASED ON THE ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES...WINTRY MIX OFSNOW..SLEET AND FZ WERE MENTIONED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 MAINLYTHURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUETO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. CONDITIONS TAPER OFF FRI AFTERNOON AS THELOW PULLS FURTHER NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DRY HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL ON WED...10-15 DEGREES BELOW THU WITH QUICK WARMING TRENDEXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah Don I agree with GSP about weighing more on the euro solution right now because of its consistency. Its hard to bet against it when it shows the same storm over and over again with only a few hiccups. It will be interesting to see if the 12z follows suit. I think all models will cave to the euro if we get 2 or 3 more euro runs with the damming feature dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What's everyone's opinion on the system for 3/6-3/7 I still think we have a good chance for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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