Met1985 Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 I am calling for a Lion of a beginning! When even the gfs is showing the cold outbreak you know its real haha. I think we are setting ourselves up for a memorable March with the ridge '85 was eluding to building out west, it only takes one gulf to costal transfer to put us in business big time. Yep I agree. It will be interesting to see if in fact we actually see another arctic blast down this way. That would probably be record setting if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z gfs has a 1000mb low 200-300 miles off the coast of SC with -3c temp line through buncombe co. and .1-.25 moisture over top of wnc on Febuary 26th (hr216). True this could be fantasy being out so far, but meteorology is about identifying trends and with both models hinting at a similar solution I think it could be a serious threat. I fully expect the gfs to lose this system in the next 3 days keeping the northern stream amplified and developing a runner but this has been the trend all season. Luckily we are getting a warm up after this past snowfall. If we were to get 6 inches of snow followed by 0 degree temps, this area would be in a much bigger mess then it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You know what's a good thing about getting one big storm this winter? You feel like you don't have to wait as long to get the next one since you're not thinking much about it during the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You know what's a good thing about getting one big storm this winter? You feel like you don't have to wait as long to get the next one since you're not thinking much about it during the days True! plus it is nice to have snow remaining on the ground.... with some bare ground in between. But still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Moderate snow Temp - 32.7 Wind - 18/ G 22 Didn't see this coming. I thought it was to start as ip then to zr then rain. I'll take it. Big'ol flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Freezing Rain Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 251 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-180600- /O.NEW.KGSP.ZR.Y.0005.140218T0000Z-140218T1400Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- ...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA... .THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS A COLD RAIN...MIXED BRIEFLY WITH SLEET...THEN FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE LATE NIGHT. ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. Already had a flash dusting. Temp dropped to 30.1, Crazy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Moderate snow Temp - 32.7 Wind - 18/ G 22 Didn't see this coming. I thought it was to start as ip then to zr then rain. I'll take it. Big'ol flakes. Well I know one thing... according to spc it says its too warm for snow there. Temps at 850 suggest in the low 40s there. So those spc meso maps must be crap. But your temps and mine is not far off. Precip may take another 3 hours to get here... I may have to take a peak outside later. There is only about 3500 feet difference between you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Go Joe!.....how are the supplies? I was cooking some steaks on the grill outside & swore I saw some light snow. I went inside to check the temp & it was 42.5 so maybe I was seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well I know one thing... according to spc it says its too warm for snow there. Temps at 850 suggest in the low 40s there. So those spc meso maps must be crap. But your temps and mine is not far off. Precip may take another 3 hours to get here... I may have to take a peak outside later. There is only about 3500 feet difference between you and me. I don't know what the deal is but it's still snowing lightly now. I leave the science stuff you guys. I'm strictly an obs type of man. Look outside and see what it's doing. That I can handle. Go Joe!.....how are the supplies? I was cooking some steaks on the grill outside & swore I saw some light snow. I went inside to check the temp & it was 42.5 so maybe I was seeing things. Ha! I was doing the same thing when I first saw it snowing. Ingles have t-bones on sell for $6.99 lb. I had him cut some big ole 24 ouncers. Pam could only eat a third of hers. I'm lying here hurtin' big time with a smile on my face. Didn't have a chance to restock. I had to break into the emergency package that I was saving , well, for an emergency. This snow qualifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't know what the deal is but it's still snowing lightly now. I leave the science stuff you guys. I'm strictly an obs type of man. Look outside and see what it's doing. That I can handle. Ha! I was doing the same thing when I first saw it snowing. Ingles have t-bones on sell for $6.99 lb. I had him cut some big ole 24 ouncers. Pam could only eat a third of hers. I'm lying here hurtin' big time with a smile on my face. Didn't have a chance to restock. I had to break into the emergency package that I was saving , well, for an emergency. This snow qualifies. The NWS put this area under a SWS for zr... but if its still snowing there then thats awesome. Might end up getting some snow myself. Is it snowing hard enough to accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wet snowflakes mixed in here at 1300 ft as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The NWS put this area under a SWS for zr... but if its still snowing there then thats awesome. Might end up getting some snow myself. Is it snowing hard enough to accumulate? There's maybe a quarter to a half inch but in the past 10 minutes there's definitely some sleet mixing in. Temps still slowly dropping, down to 29.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wow. Back now to heavy snow. Wet and big flakes. Just texted a friend in Burnsville he has light snow, all snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Uh oh, just looked at the radar. That was cool though, for a 10 minute period there it was some of the heaviest rates I've seen all year. Now, back to ice dancing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Uh oh, just looked at the radar. That was cool though, for a 10 minute period there it was some of the heaviest rates I've seen all year. Now, back to ice dancing, Nice Joe. All rain here. Temp is at 38 degrees. Enjoy. Looks like we get a week warm up then back to winter. According to Jon in the main winter thread the Euro weeklies looks very good for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hi all, I am going to be doing an internship in Towns County GA starting this week. I am going to be at about 2500 ft elevation and somewhat in the SE shadow of Brasstown Bald. Just wondering if I should expect weather conditions comparable to Asheville or more like Boone? I'm pretty far south I know but can't help but hope being somewhat high up in elevation coupled with being so close to Brasstown Bald (elevation 4784 ft ) might offer unique weather. Any thoughts are appreciated. I plan on setting up an amateur temp/rain etc system. Very excited to be in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 ~ I would say 2500 feet in SE Georgia is far more Asheville like than Boone; I am sure others could provide a much more detailed insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hi all, I am going to be doing an internship in Towns County GA starting this week. I am going to be at about 2500 ft elevation and somewhat in the SE shadow of Brasstown Bald. Just wondering if I should expect weather conditions comparable to Asheville or more like Boone? I'm pretty far south I know but can't help but hope being somewhat high up in elevation coupled with being so close to Brasstown Bald (elevation 4784 ft ) might offer unique weather. Any thoughts are appreciated. I plan on setting up an amateur temp/rain etc system. Very excited to be in the mountains! Davenc, that location looks fairly prime for experiencing heavy rain during SW winds events. Look for when 850 mb winds are in excess of 45 knots or so and you might surprised just how much it pours on you! Other than that, that location will be significantly warmer than Asheville or Boone with very meager snowfall. Hope you enjoy your time there! Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Davenc, that location looks fairly prime for experiencing heavy rain during SW winds events. Look for when 850 mb winds are in excess of 45 knots or so and you might surprised just how much it pours on you! Other than that, that location will be significantly warmer than Asheville or Boone with very meager snowfall. Hope you enjoy your time there! Good luck. Darn regarding snow. Ill take what I get though as where I am now avgs 5-6" a yr. You are very right about the rain. Looked at a map and I'm in a 70" rain swath. wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anybody have some good mojo about next weeks system? The Euro was mainly a threat for Eastern NC, but models shift we still should look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anybody have some good mojo about next weeks system? The Euro was mainly a threat for Eastern NC, but models shift we still should look at it At this point I would keep one eye on the models. Lot's of change, both good & bad will happen over the next few days. One thing I will say is climatology dictates that WNC & especially the Mnts are probably the best area in the whole SE for a Snowstorm this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anybody have some good mojo about next weeks system? The Euro was mainly a threat for Eastern NC, but models shift we still should look at it Has there been any kind of consensus whatsoever yet? I haven't been keeping track very closely but this one Euro run is the first I've heard of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Has there been any kind of consensus whatsoever yet? I haven't been keeping track very closely but this one Euro run is the first I've heard of a storm. GFS has consistently had the energy working from the gulf and transferring to the Atlantic it just hasn't brought a ton of moisture. No surprise here that the moisture isn't there, but the fact that both models are showing that costal track makes it noteworthy to watch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Thanks all for the info. Not sure where to look or ask so please redirect if you know. Wondering if their is somewhere I can look to find out somewhat detailed maps, graphs etc concerning weather in the mts..specifically NC TN GA VA and WV. Just curious. Thanks agn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Thanks all for the info. Not sure where to look or ask so please redirect if you know. Wondering if their is somewhere I can look to find out somewhat detailed maps, graphs etc concerning weather in the mts..specifically NC TN GA VA and WV. Just curious. Thanks agn! You can try this link: http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_nc.html Contains detailed climate info for the various states in the SE. You simply click on the station on the map that you are interested in. This is probably the best way to quickly get up to speed on the local climate. If you are interested in detailed precip maps..try this link: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/precip.html Another nice link: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/model It has detailed discussions about the climate in NC. Very cool stuff here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/lcldata.htm and here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=research Local climate research..lots of papers about previous storms etc..could spend hours going through it all. That should be enough to get you started..enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Possible tornado moving into the Hot Springs, NC area. You would think the mountains would knock it down but it looks like there is still some pretty decent rotation on the velocity scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yep looks like the mountains did their job. Thank goodness, I am glad we don't have to worry about tornado's nearly as much as others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ya that storm was pretty god here in Haywood. Had some decent lightning and heavy rain. Bring on the severe weather! There will be snow on the ground in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 You can try this link: http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_nc.html Contains detailed climate info for the various states in the SE. You simply click on the station on the map that you are interested in. This is probably the best way to quickly get up to speed on the local climate. If you are interested in detailed precip maps..try this link: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/precip.html Another nice link: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/model It has detailed discussions about the climate in NC. Very cool stuff here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/lcldata.htm and here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=research Local climate research..lots of papers about previous storms etc..could spend hours going through it all. That should be enough to get you started..enjoy! Thanks Mike!! These links will make me useless the rest of today. Lol. Hoping next week brings a real big one for all of us! Thx again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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