franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 3:13 AM, Met1985 said: Ya I am riding the Euro. I think it has done the best so far.euro and its ensembles have been the most consistent. Ride it! Cmc as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ha, I feel like we're all starting to get a little greedy. Even with the lowest model run we'll have more snow than we've had in 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 3:19 AM, jacobr57 said: Ha, I feel like we're all starting to get a little greedy. Even with the lowest model run we'll have more snow than we've had in 4 years.I mean if were gonna get a big dog. Might as well be THE BIG dog. That said anything from 6 up and I'll be happy. Preferably double digits. I notice that this weekend isn't going to be AS warm as previously advertised, maybe it won't all melt away so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 3:19 AM, jacobr57 said: Ha, I feel like we're all starting to get a little greedy. Even with the lowest model run we'll have more snow than we've had in 4 years. I want to get as much as possible out of this one because I'm so hungry for 2+ inches event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I do wonder if the colder trend will lead to better ratios for us. Edit: Ouch, 00z NAM has .25 inches less QPF than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Posted this on storm discussion thread, but I thought it was worth posting on here for snow lovers @RyanMaue 4m 5-day ECMWF skill scores continue to soar -- charging into record high territory: 0.90 is good -- 0.97 is excellent pic.twitter.com/wIWxO1bLuO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 3:35 AM, Bluestorm5 said: Posted this on storm discussion thread, but I thought it was worth posting on here for snow lovers @RyanMaue 4m 5-day ECMWF skill scores continue to soar -- charging into record high territory: 0.90 is good -- 0.97 is excellent pic.twitter.com/wIWxO1bLuO Good find. That's really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man, the in-house model at WCNC really hammers the eastern facing slopes of the apps. Upslope flow ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have to say, not liking the trends of the 00z models tonight. NAM and GFS both seem to be drier and/or further east. Not to mention the 21z SREF was slightly reduced from the 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS was narrower with big snow, but the storm path did shifted west somewhat via meteorologists on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:01 AM, Bluestorm5 said: GFS was narrower with big snow, but the storm path did shifted west somewhat via meteorologists on Twitter. Huh, I was just tracking based on the other thread and they seemed sure that it had shifted east. The comma head ran from Charlotte to Raleigh, apparently. I personally can't see it yet because the website is so overloaded...well, the 00z euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:03 AM, jacobr57 said: Huh, I was just tracking based on the other thread and they seemed sure that it had shifted east. The comma head ran from Charlotte to Raleigh, apparently. I personally can't see it yet because the website is so overloaded...well, the 00z euro will be telling. Well, I'm just going with mets on Twitter and I did took a look at snow maps. It's narrower, but the track of low might have shifted west. Maybe I'm just tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On the other hand, the RGEM looks quite good.It looks like it's a split between the Euro and CMC vs. the NAM and GFS. And personally, I'd rather be on the Euro side than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:10 AM, jacobr57 said: On the other hand, the RGEM looks quite good. All the models look good, the american models have generally looked less amped than the cmc and euro. The nam and gfs are still 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:11 AM, CaseyWXwatcher said: All the models look good, the american models have generally looked less amped than the cmc and euro. The nam and gfs are still 6-10. Just curious, what's the reason for this? Is there a fundamental difference between the American models and the foreign models, or is it just a situational split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:13 AM, jacobr57 said: Just curious, what's the reason for this? Is there a fundamental difference between the American models and the foreign models, or is it just a situational split? The gfs is always more progressive and east with southern stream systems. But I'm not sure about the NAM, could just be a coincidence that it's foreign VS US models. But I've seen it a few times in the past. The euro and it's ensembles are locked in, pretty hard to beat that combo at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:17 AM, CaseyWXwatcher said: The gfs is always more progressive and east with southern stream systems. But I'm not sure about the NAM, could just be a coincidence that it's foreign VS US models. But I've seen it a few times in the past. The euro and it's ensembles are locked in, pretty hard to beat that combo at this lead time. Yep the Euro has really led with this storm. I will be up tonight to each the Euro but I do not see it changing a whole lot. Anyway gang about time to put the model watching aside and just see how this all unfolds on the radar soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How good is the RGEM looking? I just have access to the precip type maps and they are not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:28 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: How good is the RGEM looking? I just have access to the precip type maps and they are not out yet. It looks good. Here's the total QPF for 48 hours out: And here's the 3 hour precip map at hour 48. It looks like there's still quite a bit more to come: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 4:33 AM, jacobr57 said: It looks good. Here's the total QPF for 48 hours out: And here's the 3 hour precip map at hour 48. It looks like there's still quite a bit more to come: Yes this looks good, plenty of QPF left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 0z CMC held. Hopefully the Euro does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HIRES Nam looks very good as well especially over the foothills and western piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:07 AM, wncsnow said: HIRES Nam looks very good as well especially over the foothills and western piedmont That's interesting. The NAM looked much drier, but the HIRES NAM looks like it's right in line with that 6-10 inches for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:07 AM, wncsnow said: HIRES Nam looks very good as well especially over the foothills and western piedmont Yes it sure does, some intense snow fall rates would take place if the HIRES NAM is correct. Just plasters us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HRW-NMM short range model also looks good at hr 45-48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:15 AM, wncsnow said: HRW-NMM short range model also looks good at hr 45-48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Man, that looks like an absolute bomb set to go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:17 AM, jacobr57 said: Man, that looks like an absolute bomb set to go off. Its very interesting that the high-res models that run off NAM data seem to be further west with heavy precip... could also be picking up on some of the orographic uplift near the blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:19 AM, wncsnow said: Its very interesting that the high-res models that run off NAM data seem to be further west with heavy precip... could also be picking up on some of the orographic uplift near the blue ridge Ya the foothills and mountains are really going to increase rates in WNC. Cannot wait for the Euro to come out. I have. Feeling when all said and done the Euro will score better than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 5:19 AM, wncsnow said: Its very interesting that the high-res models that run off NAM data seem to be further west with heavy precip... could also be picking up on some of the orographic uplift near the blue ridge What exactly is the HRW-NMM? I'm assuming some sort of derivative of the NAM based on your later statement? On 2/11/2014 at 5:24 AM, Met1985 said: Ya the foothills and mountains are really going to increase rates in WNC. Cannot wait for the Euro to come out. I have. Feeling when all said and done the Euro will score better than the other models. Yes, I'm excited for the Euro. It's been so consistent I don't see it changing all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS mean is significantly wetter than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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