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Remnants of Ingrid


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Per recon, it looks like Ingrid has weakened some... perhaps back down to 65 knots. I don't think Ingrid will intensify before landfall, Manual simply got too big and strong before landfall and Ingrid is running out of time. 

 

Ingrid has you up and down like a yo-yo.  She's gotten inside your head and sparked a manic-depressive cycle. :hugz:

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Ingrid has you up and down like a yo-yo.  She's gotten inside your head and sparked a manic-depressive cycle. :hugz:

 

despite the weaker FL winds, they did just released a dropsonde that splashed down at 76 knots! Despite the weaker flight level winds, it appears the deep convection on the NE corner is still sustaining those 75 knots winds. 

 

The 00z ECMWF (which I just looked at) has been sharing my yo-yo like intensity sentiments, now looking like it has a period of RI occurring the last 6-12 hours before landfall (just like CUmet was indicating) as the shear decreases as Manuel moves fully ashore. We'll see, I'd like to see Manuel completely ashore first! 

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I think Ingrid will still intensify. Manuel will quickly move out of the way and the effects of it upon Ingrid will begin to decrease. I say a landfall around about 80 kt is most likely, although 65-90 kt is possible.

 

I should note, with the bursting convection despite Manuel's shear, I have no doubt that Ingrid would easily be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall had it not been for Manuel.

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despite the weaker FL winds, they did just released a dropsonde that splashed down at 76 knots! Despite the weaker flight level winds, it appears the deep convection on the NE corner is still sustaining those 75 knots winds. 

 

The 00z ECMWF (which I just looked at) has been sharing my yo-yo like intensity sentiments, now looking like it has a period of RI occurring the last 6-12 hours before landfall (just like CUmet was indicating) as the shear decreases as Manuel moves fully ashore. We'll see, I'd like to see Manuel completely ashore first! 

 

Agreed.  I can't wait for it to get ashore and just die already.  Ugh.  So funny Re: the surface winds.  :lol:

 

I think Ingrid will still intensify. Manuel will quickly move out of the way and the effects of it upon Ingrid will begin to decrease. I say a landfall around about 80 kt is most likely, although 65-90 kt is possible.

 

I should note, with the bursting convection despite Manuel's shear, I have no doubt that Ingrid would easily be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall had it not been for Manuel.

 

Agreed-- this thing would have gone to town without that d*mn EPAC cyclone.  Ugh!  Drives me nuts thinking about it.  It's amazing how resilient this core has been in face of all that shear.

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Two fixes in a 20 minute period... the pressure is holding steady and as we saw from the dropsonde before, the max winds are occurring surprisingly close to the surface. 700 hPa flight level winds are surprisingly 10-15 knots weaker than the surface winds. The indicates that the circulation is strong but shallow which may be helping it to remain more resilient. The center remains aligned to 700 hPa which is good to see in the face of this shear as well. Motion is nearly due NW and slow (fix at 22.33N 95.46W)

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Two fixes in a 20 minute period... the pressure is holding steady and as we saw from the dropsonde before, the max winds are occurring surprisingly close to the surface. 700 hPa flight level winds are surprisingly 10-15 knots weaker than the surface winds. The indicates that the circulation is strong but shallow which may be helping it to remain more resilient. The center remains aligned to 700 hPa which is good to see in the face of this shear as well. Motion is nearly due NW and slow (fix at 22.33N 95.46W)

 

Cool-- thanks for this summary.

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Last fix from each recon mission are almost due west...might have been a wobble, though

 

The shear seems to be taking an increasing toll on it the more west it moves.  Definitely more substantial erosion to the cold tops on the west side of the system.  Shear needs to relax if it's going to get another burst, or even hold its own...

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Strange forecast by the NHC, but I can see where they are coming from. Take Ingrid up to 70 knots in 12 hours then level off the intensity until landfall. They are banking on the GFS being correct with the strong NW flow developing in the next 12 hours producing moderate shear over Ingrid and preventing it from intensifying. I guess thats still possible if the outflow plume with Manual expands significantly in the next 24 hours, but I think the much lower shear from the ECMWF is more likely. 

 

Another reminder to me of how good computer modeling has become in this day. IMO, the unsung heroes of meteorology are the programmers of those engines.

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All you needed to do over the last 12-18hrs is look at satellite and notice the shear impinging on it. Shear is progged to weaken tonight, but the flow from Manuel certainly isn't going to just stop.

 

Looks like the shear has already started to lessen.  Let's see how far it can come back...

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Aircraft Update:

 

HS3 Global Hawk AV1 ("Over Storm") is currently en-route to Ingrid and will be on station in about 2 hours.

NOAA G-IV is doing circles around Ingrid and is half way through the mission.

NOAA P-3 is currently warming up the engines on the tarmac of MacDill AFB in Tampa.

 

Josh ran down to MX and NOAA is flying everything they have into this thing.  I think everyone realizes this may be the only work they get to do this year.  In most years this storm would get probably 2 HH missions a day.

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It does look like the shear is ever so slightly beginning to lessen. Its really quite amazing how much the models continue to waffle on solutions. The 00z ECMWF had Ingrid inland at 9z tomorrow and now its more like 21z. The GFS is even slower. Both models this morning were about 12-24 hours faster... potentially because they expected the system to decouple which would have allowed the stronger low-level flow to take over. Instead the system is still fighting, and since the strongest vorticity and convective vigor is east of the llc. So if the storm is attempting to become vertically aligned, the deep convection must start to rotate into the western quadrant and axisymmetrize around the circulation. This process often slows down the initial motion of the low-level vortex.

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Also some tidbits from the G-IV mission today.... most of the dropsondes showed the shear is all occurring in the outflow layer between 150-300 hPa. Thus its relatively shallow shear that has allowed the mid-level vortex and low-level vortex to remain aligned (up to around 350 hPa). 

447mb	50° (from the NE)	19 knots (22 mph)
398mb	80° (from the E)	24 knots (28 mph)
362mb	60° (from the ENE)	10 knots (12 mph)
336mb	355° (from the N)	3 knots (3 mph)
318mb	290° (from the WNW)	10 knots (12 mph)
298mb	260° (from the W)	10 knots (12 mph)
287mb	300° (from the WNW)	11 knots (13 mph)
255mb	340° (from the NNW)	12 knots (14 mph)
194mb	315° (from the NW)	13 knots (15 mph)
185mb	330° (from the NNW)	10 knots (12 mph)
156mb	265° (from the W)	13 knots (15 mph)
149mb	185° (from the S)	16 knots (18 mph)

This is an important observation because there isn't any flow undercutting the outflow layer, and it should be easy to tell if and when the shear starts relaxing on WV or IR later tonight.

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