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Remnants of Ingrid

TropicalAnalystwx13

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

And it's about trends, you know? The trend (and upside potential) was looking better earlier....That was a tsunami of shear that just hit it. Unless it abates soon, it going to be toast no matter how impressive the thermodynamics are.

 

Well the key here is that the shear has to continue to increase... its in the 20-30 knot range right now, which under the right thermodynamics can be overcome as we are seeing currently. The 500 hPa vortex is tilted from the 850 hPa center, but its not completely detached (when they separate entirely). If that happens, then yes we are toast. However, the diurnal max is approaching overnight, and given the favorable thermodynamic setup, the system should be able to sustain tonight. If the storm had just made it further east, it would probably be in a much more favorable environment and also have time to spare when the winds become favorable in the monday-tuesday range. 

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

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I expect my cat 1 hurricanes to be axisymmetric and not partially exposed (see microwave above)  ;)

 

LOL!  Yeah, I understand the microwave perspective - but I just don't get what people expect to see on IR with a minimal cat 1 hurricane.

 

And it's about trends, you know? The trend (and upside potential) was looking better earlier....That was a tsunami of shear that just hit it. Unless it abates soon, it going to be toast no matter how impressive the thermodynamics are.

 

No offense - but a "tsunami" of shear?!  What hit Humberto over the last 48 hours is a "tsunami of shear."  As Phil says, the shear that Ingrid is experience is not destructive given the other factors right now.  The question is will it increase to become so - or decrease as some of the models are implying.  IMO, a lot will depend on the convective trends with the Manuel system.

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apm

apm

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No offense - but a "tsunami" of shear?!  What hit Humberto over the last 48 hours is a "tsunami of shear."  As Phil says, the shear that Ingrid is experience is not destructive given the other factors right now.  The question is will it increase to become so - or decrease as some of the models are implying.  IMO, a lot will depend on the convective trends with the Manuel system.

 

'Tis true, I guess I was speaking relative to what I had been expecting (this morning). Even this "impressive" flare up (a possible death throe?), as you have pointed out, stems from the effect of this shear, which seems to have surged from no where (yes, ostensibly from Manuel's outflow, but not to this extent).

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phil882

phil882

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No offense - but a "tsunami" of shear?!  What hit Humberto over the last 48 hours is a "tsunami of shear."  As Phil says, the shear that Ingrid is experience is not destructive given the other factors right now.  The question is will it increase to become so - or decrease as some of the models are implying.  IMO, a lot will depend on the convective trends with the Manuel system.

 

'Tis true, I guess I was speaking relative to what I had been expecting (this morning). Even this "impressive" flare up (a possible death throe?), as you have pointed out, stems from the effect of this shear, which seems to have surged from no where (yes, ostensibly from Manuel's outflow, but not to this extent).

 

 

Part of the problem is that Ingrid is further north and west from where both the GFS and ECMWF was projecting it would be located from their respective model cycles this morning. If the storm were a few degrees further south and east, this would be in a more favorable position. 

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apm

apm

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Part of the problem is that Ingrid is further north and west from where both the GFS and ECMWF was projecting it would be located from their respective model cycles this morning. If the storm were a few degrees further south and east, this would be in a more favorable position. 

Agreed. Getting that far North was a nice surprise until...

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metagraphica

metagraphica

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:lmao:

 

No but really, what is that? I'm confused. It looks like some vortex. It can't be the mid-level center....?

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

 

Not sure what that is either but you can really see the impact of the shear on the system in that animation.  You can also see how Ingrid is trying fight back against the shear as well.  I think we really need Manuel to die before Ingrid can take off intensity wise.

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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Not sure what that is either but you can really see the impact of the shear on the system in that animation.  You can also see how Ingrid is trying fight back against the shear as well.  I think we really need Manuel to die before Ingrid can take off intensity wise.

Yeah, Manuel has been more of an issue than I think most people thought it otherwise would've been. The global models actually handled it well; just 12 hours ago, it appeared they would end up wrong.

 

This would be a nice hurricane right now if Manuel wasn't there. Go figure, right?

EDIT: That's not to say it can't end up one prior to landfall, once Manuel moves in and shear lessens. However, it'd probably be a major if Manuel did not exist.

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF
RAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A
DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT
VALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH
WAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST
TO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL
LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.
THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP
IN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA
ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO
RIO SAN FERNANDO.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 22.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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I have to question what I'm seeing, while I normally stay silent during tropical storms I have to ask the tropic experts if she is gaining latitude faster than what the models have suggested? And so could she get further north before the mid level ridge sets in across the SE US?  By the way, I believe I am seeing cold cloud tops approaching -85°

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

Posted
Posted

yes, I can see that, however the CIMSS site shows the H500 down to H850 strongest vorticity to be very well co-located, the earlier plot showed the H5 vorticity center somewhat se of the the 700 and 850mb vertically stacked vorticity.  We may see some intensification yet tonight.

 

Hope you're right!  :)

 

I know you love the EPAC but Manuel needs to hurry up and die before Ingrid has a chance to get much stronger.

 

Dude... Totally.

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thewxmann

thewxmann

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Yeah, Manuel has been more of an issue than I think most people thought it otherwise would've been. The global models actually handled it well; just 12 hours ago, it appeared they would end up wrong.

 

This would be a nice hurricane right now if Manuel wasn't there. Go figure, right?

EDIT: That's not to say it can't end up one prior to landfall, once Manuel moves in and shear lessens. However, it'd probably be a major if Manuel did not exist.

 

Go figure that what will probably be our best candidate this year (I don't see anything as good anytime soon down the line, tbh) gets ruined by a crappy EPAC system. :lol: 2013: either no systems, or crappy systems, or good system ruined by interaction with crappy system. (I'm saying this for all basins.)

 

But seriously, if it weren't for Mexico's mountains I'd presume Manuel would be the dominant system that would emerge from the gyre, while Ingrid would get absorbed. The former just dominates in terms of convective envelope and anticyclonic outflow. We are lucky to get anything from Ingrid.

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